Week 15 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Dallas at Carolina

After struggling for most of the season, Dallas has finally found a running game. While benefitting from favorable matchups, Rico Dowdle has been great the last three weeks, as he has averaged 110 rushing yards per game, topping 100 yards in each of his last two games against Cincinnati and the New York Giants.  The Cowboys are leaning heavily into their rushing attack with Cooper Rush's inconsistency. Dowdle has at least 18 carries in his last three games, as he previously had more than 12 carries just once in his first nine games of the season. The Cowboys did get some bad news this week as future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin was placed on IR with an ankle injury, ending the hope that he would return after being injured in Week 11. The offensive line is an inexperienced unit as they're starting two rookies in Cooper Beebe and Tyler Guyton; now, a very inexperienced right guard, Brock Hoffman, will be relied upon for the remainder of the season. Hoffman is a much better run blocker than pass blocker, as most inexperienced players are, so this should be a team that is going to continue to try to run the ball with Dowdle, especially now that Ezekiel Elliott's role has been reduced to just 10% of the snaps over the last two weeks.

What more is there to say about Carolina, as they've been featured in this article nearly every week for the last two seasons? This team is still making a strong effort for coach Dave Canales as the team remains competitive, but their run defense is nonexistent. Over the last two weeks, Carolina has allowed 189 rushing yards per game. On the year, they've now allowed 139 rushing yards per game to the running back position, which is 21 yards more than the second-worst team. It's an impossible situation, as they have the league's worst defensive line as A'Shawn Robinson, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Harris, and LaBryan Ray are all struggling, but even worse is they likely have the league's worst linebacking unit as well. Third-round rookie Trevin Wallace is not ready to be an every-down player, yet he was thrust into the position due to the injury to Shaq Thompson earlier this year. This unit is simply not going to improve this season and should be a target against them every week.

NY Jets at Jacksonville

With no Breece Hall last week, the Jets took a committee approach with both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis as Allen was on the field for 54% of the plays while Davis was on the field for 53% as the two were nearly identical with Allen having 11 carries for 43 yards and Davis taking ten carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, this will likely continue for the Jets as Breece Hall appears likely to miss once again this week as he's struggling with a knee injury. Unfortunately, the 3-10 Jets have almost nothing to play for and, therefore, will be evaluating both of their rookie running backs as they try to determine their roster for future seasons. While Breece Hall has not officially been ruled out for this week, if he were to somehow play, it would seem unlikely that he would get his normal share of his 80% of snaps this week.

Jacksonville's run defense seems to be a unit that, while they haven't outright quit, is starting to get close to it. Over the last six weeks, they've allowed all six running backs to top 75 yards, with four topping 100 yards, including the last two games as Joe Mixon and Tony Pollard topped the century mark. This team was built to rush the passer with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker but has left significant gaps up the middle of the defensive line. Second-round rookie defensive lineman Maason Smith has struggled, as has Davon Hamilton, who, after his 2023 season, probably shouldn't be relied upon to be an every-down starter for an NFL team and likely won't be in 2025. The strength of this defense has been their linebackers, as Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd have both been good this season. Still, it is largely an uphill battle as all the responsibility falls on those two players as the Jaguars have significant issues at safety with veteran Darnell Savage and second-year Antonio Johnson both struggling.

Minnesota vs Chicago

The Vikings rushing offense has been extremely volatile over the last two weeks. While Aaron Jones had 73 rushing yards and a touchdown last week, he had just 13 carries last week and 5 carries the week before in a win against Arizona. Minnesota seems to be limiting Jones' carries to keep him fresh for the playoffs, as Cam Akers has taken a larger role in this offense, averaging seven carries per game over the last five weeks compared to Jones' 14.4. We've started to see the Minnesota passing offense hit its full potential as they've thrown for 330 yards or more in two of their last three games, which, if that continues to have success, will limit the rushing upside. However, Jones is the type of player who can get hot and have a 20-carry performance almost any week, as he's done three times this season, including in Week 13 against Chicago, in which he topped 100 yards and a touchdown. Left tackle Cam Robinson is starting to play better after being a mid-season acquisition for the Vikings due to the Christian Darrisaw injury earlier this season and if they can

The Bears had a significant letdown performance after their strong Thanksgiving day game, when they were extremely close to pulling off the comeback upset over the 49ers. With the firing of Matt Eberflus, this looked like a defense that was in complete disarray, with Eric Washington now calling the plays. The Bears are now allowing 5.0 yards per carry per game over the course of the season and 5.2 since Week 8. Since Week 8, Chicago has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing yards, and while only two running backs have topped 100 yards, seven have topped 70. The issue for Chicago continues to be at the linebacker position. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards have regressed and were supposed to be a strength heading into 2024. Along the defensive line, Chicago has some pieces they can build around, such as Gervon Dexter Sr, who is having a nice season, while Montez Sweat continues to be an anchor for this team and is incredibly consistent.

Denver vs Indianapolis

There may be a shift in Denver as they come off of the bye this week. Jaleel McLaughlin led the team with 14 carries for 84 yards. This is at a time when Javonte Williams is struggling. Williams has just 12 carries over his last two games and has a total of negative one yards. The Broncos could also look towards rookie Audric Estime, who has looked promising, albeit in a limited role, as he's only been on the field for more than 25% of snaps one time this season. It seems this could likely be a game where Javonte Williams gets the first snaps of the game, but if he struggles again, he could quickly lose his job. McLaughlin's upside is relatively limited based on being an undersized player at just 5-7 and 180 pounds, so he will certainly have a significant role, but it's difficult to see him having more than the 14 carries he had before the bye, so any loss of Williams' workload would likely go to Estime this week.

Indianapolis' run defense has been a unique one all season. This team allows consistent production but recently has managed to avoid the massive performances that can just wreck a team's season. On the year, the Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most rushing yards per game, and have allowed seven of the last eight running backs to top 70 yards against them, with none of those seven topping 102 yards. While the defensive line is good for Indianapolis, there are significant questions, particularly at the linebacker position. Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed simply have not made enough plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, as while their overall tackle numbers are good, Franklin has 135 tackles and has just one non-sack tackle for loss all season. At safety, Nick Cross has been a great last line of defense for the Colts, especially after the first two weeks in which the Colts gave up 150 yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs, but he's being forced to make too many tackles as he's second amongst all safeties.