Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Dallas vs NY Giants
Rico Dowdle continues to be a nice surprise for Dallas. This unit struggled to get anything going the first several weeks of the season, but Dowdle has run for over 50 yards in three of his last four games and four of his last six, with the only two teams holding him under that number being elite run-stopping units Detroit and Houston in blowout game scripts. Last week, Dowdle had 86 yards on 19 carries as he was a critical piece in the Cowboys' upset victory against Washington. A big question heading into Week 13 is the health of Zach Martin, who is questionable heading into this week with an ankle injury. If he's unable to play, Dallas will turn to inexperienced guard Brock Hoffman, who did play last week but has minimal experience after being an undrafted third-year player. Martin is the veteran on this offensive line who is already starting two rookies at left tackle and center, so if he were to miss, it would be a downgrade this week.
The Giants looked like a team that had very much quit last week against Tampa Bay. After being disgruntled regarding the benching and release of Daniel Jones and the team moving to Tommy DeVito, the team had some poor tackling efforts as the Buccaneers' running backs ran for 127 yards and three touchdowns against this defense. The issue for the Giants continues to be the poor play of their front seven. This unit was designed to rush the passer, which it has done very well this season, but along the defensive line, there are massive gaps as Rakeem Nuñez-Roches and D.J. Davidson continue to struggle to stop the run. At linebacker, Bobby Okereke is an excellent blitzing linebacker but struggles to have gap integrity to make consistent solo tackles as he has just 42 solo tackles and 41 assists, which is not a ratio you want to see out of your leading tackler as you typically would want this to be above 60% instead of closer to 50%. Since Week 7, the Giants' run defense has collapsed, allowing 161 rushing yards per game. Three of the five teams that the Giants have faced have had running backs who have topped 100 yards, with only Tampa Bay last week (Bucky Irving had 87) and a Washington committee of Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, and Jeremy McNichols failing to have a running back top 100 yards. The combination of lack of motivation and lack of talent will make it difficult for the Giants to stop anyone at the moment.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tampa Bay's rushing attack continues to be one of the better units in the NFL, but it is still a frustrating one for fantasy players. However, we alluded to this possibility last week that a change could be coming to the pure committee for Tampa Bay, and for the first time all season, Bucky Irving had more snaps than Rachaad White. Irving continues to impress in his rookie season, as he had 12 carries for 87 yards last week and is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry over his last two games. Meanwhile, despite the favorable matchup against the Giants last week, White had just 37 yards on 12 carries, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. As the season continues to progress, it would seem likely that the Buccaneers need to ride the hot hand in Irving, as he's just the better running back at the moment.
Carolina, under Dave Canales, is still playing extremely hard, and at this point of the season, we see varying levels of effort. Last week was one of their better performances, as they held Kareem Hunt to just 68 yards on 16 carries, which played a critical role in having a close three-point loss to the Chiefs. The Panthers have been the worst run-stopping unit in 2024, as they lead the NFL in rushing yards to opposing running backs (129) and rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs (1.3 per game). The issue for the Panthers continues to be a lack of talent and injuries. This is a rebuilding defense that lost its two best run-stoppers, Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson, for the year. Along the defensive line, there continue to be issues as Deshawn Robinson, LaBryan Ray, and Shy Tuttle have all struggled to stop the run. Having a struggling defensive line with a linebacker group that does not have a lead tackler makes life difficult for any defense. Safety Xavier Woods leads the team in tackles and has been a solid safety valve preventing the long runs, but there are just too many consistent 5-10-yard gains against this defense.
Indianapolis at New England
Indianapolis' rushing offense has been one of the most disappointing units in the NFL lately. Despite early season success, Jonathan Taylor has now failed to top more than 60 yards in three of his last four games, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in those four games. However, when healthy, Taylor has shown that he has as much upside as any running back in the NFL, as he has four 100-yard performances this season. The Colts offensive line has been ravaged with injuries. They're going to be without center Ryan Kelly, who was placed on IR along with right guard Will Fries, both injured earlier this season, but the big question heading into Week 13 is the health of left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who has not played since Week 10. Raimann is one of the league's best young left tackles, and if they were able to get him back, it would be a significant upgrade compared to rookie Matt Goncalves. This could be a get-right game for the Colts this week when they face the Patriots, as they need a win to stay competitive in the AFC South.
New England received good news that Jabrill Peppers was removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List this week. While it would seem unlikely that Peppers will play this week given the short turnaround, having his return imminent would be a big boost for this defense, which desperately needs the run-stopping safety. Since Peppers went out, New England has allowed 127 rushing yards per game, which is third in the NFL. The Patriots built this defense around veteran linebackers to help supplement their rebuilding unit, but it just didn't work this season. Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley was lost for the year in Week 2, while Raekwon McMillan was released in Week 9 after being benched due to poor play in Week 6. This has left the Patriots with several holes along their defense as they rely on linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss, who have been career backup-type players. Along the defensive line, the Patriots had hoped that Christian Barmore would provide a significant boost to this defense as the Patriots signed him to a massive $21M per year extension this offseason. He has missed most of the season with blood clots, but in his two games back, he has struggled to make the dominating impact we've become accustomed to seeing from defensive linemen. Things are trending in the right direction, especially if Peppers can return this week, but they need to put together a few good performances before they can start to be trusted.
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