Week 12 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Kansas City at Carolina

The Chiefs got some big news heading into Week 12 that starting running back Isiah Pacheco is close to returning from his fibula fracture. While Pacheco was a limited participant in practice, it would be somewhat surprising to see the Chiefs rush him back against the Panthers, especially with some comments made by Andy Reid, who mentioned that he’s day-to-day and that the Chiefs will “go through practice to see where he’s at”. The other consideration is the short week that the Chiefs have, as they play on Friday next week, and asking Pacheco to bounce back quickly could be a consideration. For Hunt, if he’s the primary back this week, we have seen his volume dip over the last two weeks to just 14 carries in each of his last two games, but those were close games that were in doubt, and he very likely could be looking more towards the 24 carries per game he saw in the prior four games to this two-game stretch against Denver and Buffalo.

Carolina is in a tricky spot heading into Week 12. Teams that are coming off of a bye week with nothing to play for the remainder of the season often simply don’t show up in that first game back, as we saw with Cleveland last week. The mark of a great coach who has not lost the locker room is to keep those players motivated after their week of rest or vacation. It’s human nature; in a lot of jobs, there are certain people who are far less motivated in that first week back from a week off, and it takes them a few weeks to get back to full efficiency. For Carolina, regardless of motivation this week, this is already the league’s worst run defense. On the season, the Panthers are allowing a league-high 134 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, and have allowed each of their last two opponent’s running backs to top 100 yards. This is a unit that was the worst run defense in 2023 and has gotten worse as they lost Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson to season-ending injuries, allowed leading tackler Frankie Luvu to sign with Washington in the offseason, and replaced him with off-the-ball linebacker Josey Jewell. Along the defensive line, the loss of Brown was critical as they do not have a player they can point to who consistently makes plays against the run, as Shy Tuttle, LaBryan Ray, and A’Shawn Robinson all have been overmatched along the defensive line. Safety Xavier Woods leads the team in tackles with 69, with the next closest player at just 52, which is Jewell. To have a safety, having a 17-tackle lead over the next closest player is a bad sign that too many players are getting past your defensive linemen and linebackers, and Woods needs to clean up the play.

Miami vs New England

After a slow start to the season, De’Von Achane and the Dolphins offense are greatly benefitting from Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. Over the last four weeks since Tua’s return, Achane has averaged 68 yards rushing and 106 total yards per game while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. In his first six games of the season, Achane averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. What’s encouraging for Achane going forward is the lack of a role from Raheem Mostert. Mostert was averaging about 40% of snaps from Weeks 1 through Week 8, but over the last three weeks, Mostert has just 23%, 15%, and 15% of the snaps. Last week, he had just three carries for -2 yards, while rookie Jaylen Wright, who had some hype heading into this season, has just 7 yards on 10 carries over the last two games. This should be a situation where there are as many carries as Achane can handle.

New England’s not a team that we currently have to worry about quitting; it is just a team that needs to continue to get more players through the draft and free agency for next season. This was a defense that made several personnel mistakes heading into this season as they relied on Raekwon McMillan and safety Jabrill Peppers to be their primary run-stoppers. neither are with the team, as McMillan was completely ineffective, and Peppers had off-the-field issues that had him on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Meanwhile, their other linebacker, Ja’Whaun Bentley, was lost for the season back in Week 2. This is a depleted unit of journeyman-type players with linebackers Christian Elliss and Sione Takitaki. Since Week 5, when the team lost Jabrill Peppers, New England is allowing 136 rushing yards per game, which is the second-most in the NFL, only behind Carolina.

Tampa Bay at New York Giants

Tampa Bay’s committee approach, while effective, has been one of the most frustrating offenses for fantasy managers all season. Statistically, Bucky Irving has been the far better runner than Rachaad White, averaging 5.1 yards per carry to White’s 3.8 and scoring four touchdowns to White’s 1, but the Buccaneers remain committed to the committee as White is averaging 8.8 carries per game while Irving is averaging 9.6. When it comes to touchdown opportunities, it’s clear that the team trusts Irving more than White as a pure runner. Since Week 3, the rookie Irving has 23 red zone opportunities compared to White’s 11. A big reason that White continues to be so heavily involved is the issues that the Buccaneers have on the offensive line. According to Footballguys Offensive Line Expert Matt Bitonti, this is the worst offensive line in football, and White is the far more experienced pass blocker, as well as the bigger back, as Irving is just 5’10’’ and 190 pounds. Outside of left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is having a great season, the rest of the offensive line has struggled as first-round rookie center Graham Barton still needs time to develop to replace veteran Ryan Jensen, who retired this offseason, while right tackle Luke Goedeke has shown signs of regression after a strong second season with the team in 2023.

There are significant questions heading into this week about the motivation of the Giants. After Chuba Hubbard embarrassed this defense in Week 10, rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown, the vibes with the decision to bench Daniel Jones seem completely off as the team moves on to Tommy DeVito. The Giants were looking like one of the most improved teams in 2024 from Weeks 3 through 6 when they went back to linebacker Micah McFadden after benching him to start the season in favor of sixth-round rookie Darius Muasau. However, it has all fallen apart since Week 7. Since Week 7, the Giants have allowed a staggering 170 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, as Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, and Chuba Hubbard all ran for over 100 yards against this defense. There simply are holes everywhere for this defense which needs a rebuild for 2025. Along the defensive line, while Dexter Lawrence II continues to play at a high level, D.J. Davidson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are two of the worst run-stoppers in the NFL. At linebacker, Micah McFadden is back to missing tackles and just does not make enough solo tackles as he has just 35 all season. At safety, Jason Pinnock is an excellent pass rusher but has not made enough plays in the run game this season compared to last year. Overall, this is a defense that was already falling apart prior to the quarterback change, and if Tommy DeVito struggles, how will this defense respond after already seeming to be upset about the move?

Dallas at Washington

The Dallas Cowboys are a complete mess of a team. Last week, heading into the game against Houston, Mike McCarthy said that the ideal number of touches that Rico Dowdle would have per game is 22 to 25, and he only had ten carries for the game. The encouraging part of this is that 8 of those carries were in the first half despite Dallas falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter. It was just in the second half that the game got completely sideways from them, and they were forced to give the ball just twice to Dowdle. This is almost entirely Dowdle’s offense going forward, as despite being on the field for 31% of the plays, Ezekiel Elliott had just one carry for eight yards last week and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Overall, Dallas’ line has exceeded expectations and is 8th overall, according to Matt Bitonti. Led by their guards Tyler Smith and future Hall of Famer Zach Martin, this is an offensive line starting two rookies at the most critical positions as, Tyler Guyton at left tackle and Cooper Beebe at center.

Washington’s run defense continues to struggle. Last week, Saquon Barkley torched Washington for 146 rushing yards and two touchdowns. On the year, Washington is allowing 123 rushing yards per game which is the second-worst in the NFL, while allowing 5.1 yards per game. The Commanders have allowed four running backs to top 100 rushing yards this season, as they’ve made a schematic decision to prioritize stopping the pass after being the league’s worst pass defense in 2023. The issues for Washington continue to be along the defensive line as rookie Jer’Zhan Newton continues to look overmatched while former first-round pick Daron Payne has struggled this season as the team desperately misses Jonathan Allen, who was lost for the year with a pectoral injury. The linebackers are a strength of this team led by Bobby Wagner, who, at age 34, continues to play at a high level, but he can only do so much to cover up the significant holes along the line. This is a defense that as the season wears on, will likely only get worse as Wagner and Frankie Luvu can only cover up so many of the holes each weak and as they eventually tire, it will continue to create problems.

Arizona at Seattle

James Conner is a player who is not always going to have the flashy gains or stat lines that make sense, but at the end of the day, he’s more than likely going to end up with over 100 total yards on a week-to-week basis. Last week, despite having just 33 rushing yards on 12 carries in a game where he was game-scripted out due to the Cardinals having such a commanding lead, he added five receptions for 80 yards to get to 113 total for the day. Conner has topped 100 total yards in six of his last eight games, with the only two games he failed to do so being a 34-13 loss to Green Bay and a 28-27 victory against Miami, but even in that game, they fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter. The Cardinals should get big news this week as 2019 first-round right tackle Jonah Williams appears that he is going to return this week after being out since Week 1. Williams, alongside 2023 first-round pick left tackle Paris Johnson, is the strength of this offensive line and should help with some of the off-tackle runs that both Conner and Kyler Murray excel at. Over the last two weeks, we have seen backup Trey Benson take a larger role in this offense, as he has averaged nine carries for 45 yards in those games. This is more of a product of the game script, and the Cardinals are likely conserving Conner a little bit. The Cardinals have won those two games by 20 and 25 points, so Benson is a rookie who they are looking to get some action in garbage time to both get an evaluation as well as save Conner for some of their more critical games down the stretch.

Seattle’s run defense has shown a little sign of improvement over the last two weeks, holding Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams to 79 and 69 yards in each of those two games. Seattle has undergone significant personnel changes trying to find a combination of linebackers and safeties to cover up their poor defensive line play. At safety, it’s been encouraging to see Coby Bryant after Rayshawn Jenkins was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this season. At linebacker, it does seem as if the defense has found the right combination, trading away Jerome Baker and releasing Tyrel Dodson, and replacing them with Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight. Since joining the team over the last three games, Ernest Jones IV has averaged 12.3 tackles per game, while Tyrice Knight added 10 in his first start last week. This is far from a perfect unit as Seattle is still allowing 5 yards per carry, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of their defensive line, as Dre’Mont Jones and Johnathan Hankins have struggled along the interior of the defensive line.

Bottom 5 Rushing Defenses

Carolina vs Kansas City

With the bye last week, the last time that we saw Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers' rushing attack was a dominant performance as Hubbard ran the ball 28 times for 153 yards against the Giants right after he signed the 4-year $33M extension. The big question for the Panthers now is how their backfield will look going forward as the 3-7 Panthers are in the talent evaluation portion of their season. The big news for Carolina this week is that they activated 2024 second-round pick Jonathon Brooks from IR after the rookie missed the first ten games with a torn ACL. Head coach Dave Canales has come out and stated that there will not be any restrictions for Brooks, although he’s the clear number two on the depth chart. Realistically, something like a 70% Hubbard 30% Brooks split seems to make the most sense as the Panthers continue to be a run-first offense as they try to develop Bryce Young, who it seems they are committed to for now to be the starter for the remainder of the season. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu and left guard Damien Lewis are both excellent run blockers and will be critical for the Panthers to stay competitive against the Chiefs.

Kansas City’s run defense continues to be the gold standard in 2024 under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. On the year, the Chiefs are allowing a staggering 52 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which would be the lowest since at least 2001, when Footballguys started tracking the stat. There’s not much more that needs to be said about this defense that hasn’t already been said in this weekly column, but it is a defense that is solid on all levels. Led by All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones, he creates mismatches that allow for Kansas City’s three excellent run-stopping linebackers to clean up the play as Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal are all fundamentally excellent when it comes to staying in position and making the tackle without trying to do too much. This is a defense that has some of the highest cohesion in the NFL. The linebackers, safeties, and defensive line all returned from last season, with most being here several seasons, which creates a culture of being able to improve on scheme rather than teaching scheme to new guys, which is critical. It’s also a defense that has stayed remarkably healthy. The Chiefs have only lost Charles Omenihu in their run-stopping unit, who could return this week after having not played thus far in 2024. Omenihu is more of a pass-rusher, but getting another athletic, talented player and getting this defense back to full health in Week 12 is remarkable.

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia

The return of a healthy Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp has had a fairly significant impact on the Rams' rushing offense. Over the last two weeks, Kyren Williams has seen his carry volume plummet to just 15 carries per game compared to 20.1 in his first eight games of the season. While he’s been efficient at 4.9 yards per carry, Williams is not a big play running back as he has just one carry longer than 20 yards all season. So, the lack of volume significantly impacts his upside while also leaving a lower floor, as this is a back who is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry all season. We’ve also seen his red zone volume completely fall off a cliff. Kyren averaged 6.3 red-zone opportunities per game over the first eight weeks of the season, and over the last two weeks, he has just one total red-zone opportunity. While Williams can still be effective going forward from a fantasy perspective, we’re going to need to level-set his expectations for the remainder of the season if things don’t quickly bounce back to his more normal volume.

Philadelphia’s run defense continues to improve each week. After a slow start to the season, the Eagles have been dominant since Week 4, allowing just 68 rushing yards per game, which is second-best in the NFL, just behind Kansas City. Philadelphia’s defensive line has been the most impactful reason for their improvement, as this is a unit that the Eagles have invested heavily in with three first-round picks over the last three seasons in Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Nolan Smith Jr.. Meanwhile, at linebacker, Zack Baun continues to be one of the most improved players in the NFL as this was a guy who was a reclamation depth piece for the Eagles and is likely going to be named to an All-Pro team as he is fifth in the NFL in tackles this season. If there is a little regression that could come, it would be that the competition that the Eagles have faced since those first three weeks (Kamara, Bijan, Josh Jacobs) has been lacking. In those first three games, they allowed 122 rushing yards per game. Since then, the best running back that they’ve faced is likely Brian Robinson Jr, as they’ve faced Bucky Irving/Rachaad White, D’Onta Foreman, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chase Brown, Tank Bigsby, Rico Dowdle, and Brian Robinson, who is one of the weaker schedules in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore

Despite the Chargers’ four-game winning streak in which they’ve won all four games by a touchdown or more, it has not translated into additional carries for J.K. Dobbins. This is a team that is firmly committed to having a target range of carries between 14-17 carries for Dobbins, which is something that he’s had in seven of his ten games this season. Dobbins’ week-to-week success is largely going to depend on his big-play ability, as he’s one of the best big-play running backs in the NFL with a 25-yard carry or longer in four games this season. Despite Gus Edwards’ return, he’s filling the complementary role that Kimani Vidal had for most of the season, which, most weeks, has been in the five to seven carry range, which is a significant drop off from the 14.5 carries per game he had in the first two weeks of the season.

For the first time all season, Baltimore’s run defense showed some vulnerability, allowing Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to combine for 104 yards. However, it did take 27 carries between the two in order to be the first team to have a combined 100-yard rushing total against the Ravens this season. The big news for Baltimore is the health of Roquan Smith, who left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. The four-time All-Pro is tied for the NFL lead with 110 tackles on the season, and if he were to be unable to go, this would cause a significant shakeup for this defense as Malik Harrison would likely see the majority of the snaps, but the team would need to rely heavily on Kyle Hamilton at safety to slide down into the box to help with their run defense. Baltimore also may be making a change at the safety position, replacing Marcus Williams, who has struggled all season as the team tries to address their woeful pass defense. Williams saw just one snap last week as Ar’Darius Washington replaced him and had 12 tackles on the day, which was second on the team. It would seem likely that, based on the issues the team has had with Williams that a hot hand situation could be brewing with Washington, and they’ll start him as long as they can get quality play out of the undrafted third-year player.

New England at Miami

We are well past the days when the Patriots were starting Antonio Gibson and showing frustration with Rhamondre Stevenson. Over the last four weeks, this offense has reverted back to a similar role that we saw early on in the season, where Stevenson was a high-volume, low-efficiency type player. In those four games, Stevenson has 20 carries in three of those games, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The issue for New England is there is just a fundamental misalignment with their personnel and the offense that they’re trying to run. Stevenson is a between-the-tackle downhill running back who is not going to make a lot of people miss but can be next to impossible to tackle at 230 pounds for safeties, which is how he gets his big plays. However, when you have one of the worst interior offensive lines in the NFL due to injuries to center David Andrews and left guard Cole Strange, you just are not going to have success with Ben Brown at center and Michael Jordan at left guard, neither of which are NFL starter quality.

Over the course of the season, Miami is one of the most improved run-stopping units in the 2024 season. Since Week 7, Miami has allowed just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is fourth in the NFL. They have not allowed a running back to top 70 yards during this stretch, while over the course of the first five games, they allowed a running back in every game to top 70 yards. So what has changed? The big change has been the move away from David Long Jr at linebacker to Anthony Walker Jr.. Walker is a run-stopping specialist who struggles in pass defense, but as a tackler, it is something that the Dolphins desperately needed at the position. Walker has averaged 9.7 tackles over the last three weeks for Miami. The other key difference is that the Dolphins are playing more base defense, with 340-pound defensive tackle Benito Jones seeing about 50% of the snaps compared to 30% early on this season. While Jones is not a great run-stopper, his size allows Zach Sieler and Calais Campbell to improve their play, as the defenses have to be aware of the large Jones.

Chicago vs Minnesota

Big news out of Chicago on Wednesday was that D’Andre Swift did not practice due to a groin injury, which could partially explain the role that Roschon Johnson had last week as Johnson had ten carries compared to Swift’s 14 even though Swift did not leave the game in Week 11. If Swift were to miss, it would be a significant downgrade to Johnson, who, throughout this season, has just not shown the growth that the Bears were hoping for in his second year in the NFL. The 2023 fourth-round pick would get as much volume as he could handle as the team traded away Khalil Herbert at the trade deadline and just have Travis Homer as the only other running back on the roster who has just three carries all season. For Johnson, this is a player who has 46 carries on the year, does not have a carry 10 yards or longer, and is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. However, the packages that he would get this week would be different, as he’s primarily being used as the short yardage back at 225 pounds, so getting the full snaps would likely give him more upside this week. If Swift gets the start, you’re getting a high-floor running back, as he has 50 rushing yards or more in each of his last seven games while also having the ceiling each week to get close to 100 total yards. The Bears' offensive line has undergone a complete restoration recently. The team cut right guard Nate Davis after signing him to a big contract, and they should get Ryan Bates back at left guard this week after Bates suffered a concussion early last week.

After a two-week stretch of a struggling run defense in Week 7 and 8, the Vikings are back to being one of the league’s best run-stopping units. Over the last three games, Minnesota has completely neutralized Jonathan Taylor (48 yards), Travis Etienne Jr. (44 yards), and Tony Pollard last week (15 yards). This is a completely different defense when linebacker Blake Cashman is in the lineup. The Vikings like to play a defense that has only one linebacker on the field at a time, sliding safety Joshua Metellus into the box. However, with Cashman out, Ivan Pace Jr., who is a second-year undrafted linebacker, is being asked to do more than he is capable of as he’s a really strong complimentary piece, but when you’re the only linebacker on the field, it makes life difficult. The Vikings are a team that opponents are quick to abandon the run against. Only four teams have given their lead running back 12 or more carries, and three had significant success, as Jordan Mason, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kyren Williams all had 90 rushing yards or more against this defense, with only Jonathan Taylor failing to top 50 on this list.