Week 12 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Kansas City at Carolina

The Chiefs got some big news heading into Week 12 that starting running back Isiah Pacheco is close to returning from his fibula fracture. While Pacheco was a limited participant in practice, it would be somewhat surprising to see the Chiefs rush him back against the Panthers, especially with some comments made by Andy Reid, who mentioned that he's day-to-day and that the Chiefs will “go through practice to see where he's at”. The other consideration is the short week that the Chiefs have, as they play on Friday next week, and asking Pacheco to bounce back quickly could be a consideration. For Hunt, if he's the primary back this week, we have seen his volume dip over the last two weeks to just 14 carries in each of his last two games, but those were close games that were in doubt, and he very likely could be looking more towards the 24 carries per game he saw in the prior four games to this two-game stretch against Denver and Buffalo.

Carolina is in a tricky spot heading into Week 12. Teams coming off of a bye week with nothing to play for the remainder of the season often simply don't show up in that first game back, as we saw with Cleveland last week. The mark of a great coach who has not lost the locker room is to keep those players motivated after their week of rest or vacation. It's human nature; in a lot of jobs, certain people are far less motivated in that first week back from a week off, and it takes them a few weeks to get back to full efficiency. For Carolina, regardless of motivation this week, this is already the league's worst run defense. On the season, the Panthers are allowing a league-high 134 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, and have allowed each of their last two opponent's running backs to top 100 yards. This is a unit that was the worst run defense in 2023 and has gotten worse as they lost Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson to season-ending injuries, allowed leading tackler Frankie Luvu to sign with Washington in the offseason, and replaced him with off-the-ball linebacker Josey Jewell. Along the defensive line, the loss of Brown was critical as they do not have a player they can point to who consistently makes plays against the run, as Shy Tuttle, LaBryan Ray, and A'Shawn Robinson all have been overmatched along the defensive line. Safety Xavier Woods leads the team in tackles with 69, with the next closest player at just 52, which is Jewell. To have a safety, having a 17-tackle lead over the next closest player is a bad sign that too many players are getting past your defensive linemen and linebackers, and Woods needs to clean up the play.

Miami vs New England

After a slow start to the season, De'Von Achane and the Dolphins offense greatly benefit from Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. Over the last four weeks since Tua's return, Achane has averaged 68 yards rushing and 106 total yards per game while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. In his first six games of the season, Achane averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. What's encouraging for Achane going forward is the lack of a role from Raheem Mostert. Mostert averaged about 40% of snaps from Weeks 1 through 8, but over the last three weeks, Mostert has just 23%, 15%, and 15% of the snaps. Last week, he had just three carries for -2 yards, while rookie Jaylen Wright, who had some hype heading into this season, has just 7 yards on 10 carries over the last two games. This should be a situation where there are as many carries as Achane can handle.

New England's not a team that we currently have to worry about quitting; it is just a team that needs to continue to get more players through the draft and free agency for next season. This was a defense that made several personnel mistakes heading into this season as they relied on Raekwon McMillan and safety Jabrill Peppers to be their primary run-stoppers. Neither are with the team, as McMillan was completely ineffective, and Peppers had off-the-field issues that had him on the Commissioner's Exempt List. Meanwhile, their other linebacker, Ja'Whaun Bentley, was lost for the season back in Week 2. This is a depleted unit of journeyman-type players with linebackers Christian Elliss and Sione Takitaki. Since Week 5, when the team lost Jabrill Peppers, New England is allowing 136 rushing yards per game, which is the second-most in the NFL, only behind Carolina.

Tampa Bay at NY Giants

While effective, Tampa Bay's committee approach has been one of the most frustrating offenses for fantasy managers all season. Statistically, Bucky Irving has been the far better runner than Rachaad White, averaging 5.1 yards per carry to White's 3.8 and scoring four touchdowns to White's 1. Still, the Buccaneers remain committed to the committee as White averages 8.8 carries per game while Irving averages 9.6. When it comes to touchdown opportunities, it's clear that the team trusts Irving more than White as a pure runner. Since Week 3, the rookie Irving has 23 red zone opportunities compared to White's 11. A big reason White continues to be so heavily involved is the Buccaneers' issues on the offensive line. According to Footballguys Offensive Line Expert Matt Bitonti, this is the worst offensive line in football, and White is the far more experienced pass blocker, as well as the bigger back, as Irving is just 5-10 and 190 pounds. Outside of left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is having a great season, the rest of the offensive line has struggled as first-round rookie center Graham Barton still needs time to develop to replace veteran Ryan Jensen, who retired this offseason, while right tackle Luke Goedeke has shown signs of regression after a strong second season with the team in 2023.

There are significant questions heading into this week about the motivation of the Giants. After Chuba Hubbard embarrassed this defense in Week 10, rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown, the vibes with the decision to bench Daniel Jones seem completely off as the team moves on to Tommy DeVito. The Giants were looking like one of the most improved teams in 2024 from Weeks 3 through 6 when they went back to linebacker Micah McFadden after benching him to start the season in favor of sixth-round rookie Darius Muasau. However, it has all fallen apart since Week 7. Since Week 7, the Giants have allowed a staggering 170 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, as Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, and Chuba Hubbard all ran for over 100 yards against this defense. There are holes everywhere in this defense, and it needs rebuilding in 2025. Along the defensive line, while Dexter Lawrence II continues to play at a high level, D.J. Davidson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are two of the worst run-stoppers in the NFL. At linebacker, Micah McFadden is back to missing tackles and just does not make enough solo tackles as he has just 35 all season. At safety, Jason Pinnock is an excellent pass rusher but has not made enough plays in the run game this season compared to last year. Overall, this is a defense that was already falling apart prior to the quarterback change, and if Tommy DeVito struggles, how will this defense respond after already seeming to be upset about the move?

Dallas at Washington

The Dallas Cowboys are a complete mess of a team. Last week, heading into the game against Houston, Mike McCarthy said that the ideal number of touches that Rico Dowdle would have per game is 22 to 25, and he only had ten carries for the game. The encouraging part is that 8 of those carries were in the first half despite Dallas falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter. It was just in the second half that the game got completely sideways from them, and they were forced to give the ball just twice to Dowdle. This is almost entirely Dowdle's offense going forward, as despite being on the field for 31% of the plays, Ezekiel Elliott had just one carry for eight yards last week and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Overall, Dallas' line has exceeded expectations and is 8th overall, according to Matt Bitonti. Led by their guards Tyler Smith and future Hall of Famer Zach Martin, this is an offensive line starting two rookies at the most critical positions as, Tyler Guyton at left tackle and Cooper Beebe at center.

Washington's run defense continues to struggle. Last week, Saquon Barkley torched Washington for 146 rushing yards and two touchdowns. On the year, Washington is allowing 123 rushing yards per game which is the second-worst in the NFL, while allowing 5.1 yards per game. The Commanders have allowed four running backs to top 100 rushing yards this season, as they've made a schematic decision to prioritize stopping the pass after being the league's worst pass defense in 2023. The issues for Washington continue to be along the defensive line as rookie Jer'Zhan Newton continues to look overmatched while former first-round pick Daron Payne has struggled this season as the team desperately misses Jonathan Allen, who was lost for the year with a pectoral injury. The linebackers are a strength of this team led by Bobby Wagner, who, at age 34, continues to play at a high level, but he can only do so much to cover up the significant holes along the line. This is a defense that, as the season wears on, will likely only get worse as Wagner and Frankie Luvu can only cover up so many of the holes each weak, and as they eventually tire, it will continue to create problems.