Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
New Orleans at Carolina
Derek Carr is expected to return this week, which will significantly improve the overall outlook of the Saints, who have been struggling offensively with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener at quarterback as the team has lost six games in a row. With Derek Carr back in the lineup, this should elevate the outlook for Alvin Kamara, who has struggled over the last four weeks, averaging just 36 rushing yards per game as the team has been unable to achieve any sustained success offensively. Over the previous four games, Kamara has averaged just ten carries per game compared to 20 carries per game over the first four games. With Carr back, we may not see 20 carries per game for Kamara, as he's never done that over a sustained period in his career, but we certainly will expect to see at least 15-17 this week.
Carolina's run defense improved in Week 8 as they essentially shut down the Denver Broncos, holding Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin to just 91 yards on 25 carries. However, this is still a flawed unit. On the year, the Panthers allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most yards at 129 per game, and a staggering 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. The Panthers did get linebacker Josey Jewell back last week, but while he is one of their top linebackers, undrafted rookie safety Demani Richardson led the team in tackles last week. With the team's top linebacker, Shaq Thompson, and top defensive tackle, Derrick Brown, both out for the season, this unit is the worst front seven in the NFL with very little hope of change. On the defensive line, Shy Tuttle has completely fallen off from being an above-average defensive lineman as he's turned into a player that opposing defenses are attacking, given the low quality of play.
LA Rams at Seattle
Kyren Williams has exceeded all expectations in 2023. After some concern that Blake Corum would have a role in this offense after the team drafted him in the third round of the 2024 draft, Williams has grasped onto this role and has been on the field for 86% of the plays this season. While the volume has decreased slightly in 2024 compared to 2023, Williams is still averaging 19.8 carries per game, leading the NFL this season. Williams has been a red-zone workhorse over the last two seasons, leading to him scoring a touchdown in 10 consecutive games. This season, through 7 games, Williams has 44 red zone opportunities, a combination of passing targets and rushing attempts inside the 20-yard-line. While he's not the most explosive runner, with only one carry longer than 20 yards this season, Williams is someone that the Rams completely trust and has been productive in all aspects of the game this year.
The Seahawks are desperately trying to figure out a way to stop the run but have been unable to do so. The team traded away Jerome Baker, hoping it would make an impact, but last week, Buffalo ran all over this defense as James Cook had 111 yards and two touchdowns in a game that was never competitive. Over their last four games, Seattle has allowed a running back to have 99 yards or more in each, with only Isaac Guerendo failing to top the 100-yard mark as James Cook, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Bijan Robinson all topped 100. Seattle traded Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones IV who has already been traded twice this season. Jones made some encouraging plays but was mostly a volume tackler as he had 15 total tackles, including seven solo, but most were downfield. Also interesting, Jones played Buffalo in two consecutive weeks as Buffalo had played Tennessee in the game before this one, while he also was a part of the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason, so this could entirely be the Seahawks going out and getting a player who has familiarity with both of the two teams on their schedule. Seattle should be much better than the 5.2 yards per carry they are currently allowing, as they have talent on the defensive line in Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed. Still, at defensive tackle, they need to do something with Johnathan Hankins, who continues to be unable to play at an NFL-caliber level. At age 32 and 330 pounds, his body seems to be breaking down as he's been a staple for bad run defenses over the last several seasons, and the big body just does not have the ability to get penetration on the offensive line.
NY Giants vs Washington
The Giants may have found their running back of the future, as it appears that Tyrone Tracy Jr. has taken over this offense. The rookie out of Purdue has been outstanding this season, averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry with 17 or more carries in three of his last four games, and has had a commanding snap count advantage over Devin Singletary since Singletary returned from injury as Tracy has averaged 61% of the snaps compared to Singletary's 30%. The issue for this week is that the Giants are likely to be without Tracy, as he suffered a concussion on Monday. With this being a short week combined with the Giants being 2-6, it would seem unlikely that they would rush Tracy back and instead start Singletary against Washington. The more significant issue for the Giants is that they suffered a massive injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas, who was placed on IR with a foot injury in Week 6. Last week, Chris Hubbard started at left tackle and was a significant dropoff compared to Thomas, who has emerged as one of the better left tackles in the NFL this season.
Since Washington's secondary was exposed over the first three weeks of the season, they've chosen to sell out to stop the pass at the expense of their run defense. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed 125 rushing yards per game, which is fifth in the NFL this season. Three running backs in those five games have topped 100 yards as D'Andre Swift, Derrick Henry, and James Conner all hit the milestone. The issue for the Commanders is they may have the worst defensive line in the NFL. Since Jonathan Allen, who was already a sub-par run-stopper, went down with an injury, Washington has had to rely on second-round rookie Jer'Zhan Newton. Washington has not been able to draft well, as Newton and 2022 second-round pick Phidarian Mathis have been abysmal at stopping the run. This defense relies too heavily on their linebackers, Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. While they're a talented duo, they can only do so much when the safeties are primarily focused on stopping the pass.
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