Week 6 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Green Bay vs Arizona

The Packers over the last several seasons have been one of the more frustrating teams when it comes to management of running backs in the NFL. Much like Aaron Jones in the past, Josh Jacobs is filling a similar role where the volume on a week-to-week basis is very much game script dependent as the team is quick to abandon the run if they fall behind early. If the Packers get out to7 too big of a lead, however, they’ll give Emmanuel Wilson a larger role thus needing effectively a perfect game script for Jacobs to get near 20 carries which is what we had last week. Last week, in a close game that the Packers led most of, Jacobs had 19 carries for 73 yards while adding a touchdown and was on the field for 75% of the plays compared to the normal 60% that we’ve been seeing this week. Don’t expect last week’s game to change anything as Emmanuel Wilson will still have a role in this offense, and coach Matt LaFleur has a long history of volatility when it comes to running back volume, so barring injury to either Jacobs or Wilson, expect it to continue to be about a 60/40 split most week’s, but with some volatility to get closer to 50/50 in a blowout victory or 75/25 like we saw last week in a close win.

Arizona’s run defense is turning into the defense that we thought might be at the start of the season which is a defense that lacks playmakers. Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cardinals surprised holding the Bills and Rams largely in check allowing just 72 rushing yards to opposing running backs. However, since Week 3, the floodgates have opened, as the Cardinals are allowing a league-leading 156 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs while also allowing 1.3 touchdowns per game to the position. While linebackers Kyzir White and Mack Wilson Sr. have a history of being on struggling run defenses, it’s hard to point the finger at these two players this season as the Cardinals are simply being dominated on the defensive line as Bilal Nichols, Roy Lopez, L.J. Collier, rookie Xavier Thomas, and Dennis Gardeck have all been massive liabilities on the defensive line. This is a defense that did not change personnel on the defensive line from 2023 and it’s showing as they allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2023 and are trending in that same direction in 2024.

Atlanta at Carolina

Bijan Robinson has been a disappointment in 2024 but has a big opportunity this week to correct most of the early season struggles. For Robinson, the issues have primarily been around a lack of volume in Zac Robinson’s offense compared to Arthur Smith’s last season. For Robinson, the lack of run-heavy volume combined with the Falcons' commitment to giving Tyler Allgeier a role in this offense as the backup is averaging 6.6 carries per game compared to Robinson’s 13.4. When Robinson does touch the ball, he is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, and the schedule has been difficult leading to a pass-heavy approach so with this favorable matchup on the ground, we could see more volume this week.

Carolina’s run defense is somehow finding itself to be worse than the very low expectations that we had heading into this season for this team. Last week, the Panthers allowed the Bears who previously had one of the worst run offenses in the NFL to run for 98 yards and score three rushing touchdowns between D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, while in Week 4 they allowed 131 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to the Bengals committee which is another bottom-five rushing offense. The issue for Carolina continues to be the injuries suffered in that Week 4 game are exposing an already thin unit and now relying on players who likely should not be starters in the NFL. Already dealing with the loss of linebacker and defensive captain Shaq Thompson for the season, the Panthers appear they will once again be without linebacker Josey Jewell who did not practice on Wednesday as he deals with a hamstring injury. While Jewell is a below-average linebacker, he’s a significant upgrade compared to rookie Trevin Wallace and undrafted second-year player Claudin Cherelus and would provide a veteran presence for this team. On the defensive line, the team is a mess since the season-ending injury to Derrick Brown as they have only one player in their rotation of defensive linemen who is over 300 pounds, which makes life very difficult for the linebackers having to shed blocks as they do not have that space eater in the middle that Brown could provide at 330 pounds.

NY Giants vs Cincinnati

The Giants’ rushing attack may have found something in Tyrone Tracy Jr. last week. With starting running back Devin Singletary out last week against Seattle, Tracy took full advantage of the opportunity rushing for 129 yards on 18 carries as he played a significant role in the Giants' upset victory on the road last week. This week, Singletary appears to be trending in the right direction to return from a groin injury as he was a limited participant in practice. However, what we don’t know is what role Tracy will have when Singletary gets back. In all likelihood, it will go back to a similar role that he had before the injury which is about 25% of the snaps while Singletary has not been great, he has not done anything to lose the job either as he’s averaging 3.9 yards-per-carry with two strong games against Cleveland and Washington. Coaches are often thinking beyond just an individual player, and what a change like this would do for the locker room essentially telling the players that if you miss one week and the backup comes in with a great game, they can overtake your spot. Now, with that said, Singletary’s leash does become a little bit shorter after the rookie has shown he can handle the full workload especially if the Giants lose a few more games.

Cincinnati’s run defense has been a big reason that the team is off to a 1-4 start this season. Over their five games, Cincinnati has allowed a running back to have 90 yards or more in four of those games with only Washington’s duo unable to top the 90-yard mark. This is a unique defense as they have playmakers at linebacker with Logan Wilson being one of the best run-stopping linebackers in the NFL, but the big issue for the Bengals is the defensive line and the safeties have both struggled to stop the run. Along the defensive line, this is a team that has dealt with a significant number of injuries as they have been without BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins has been dealing with injuries the past few weeks. The good news is that both players should be back this week, but Rankins will need to significantly improve his run-stopping ability as Rhamondre Stevenson and Isiah Pacheco both had big games in the two games with Rankins in the lineup. Rankins was brought in to replace D.J. Reader as the Bengals committed $12M per year to Rankins and so far he has been a significant drop off from the elite run-stopper Reader who is thriving in Detroit. At safety, Geno Stone is struggling in his first year outside of Baltimore. While Stone was great in Baltimore, Baltimore could have kept the 26-year-old safeties at a very reasonable rate but chose not to which can often indicate what these consistently competitive teams think of these types of players and that they were more of a scheme fit than a player worth investing in. So far, Stone has been one of the worst safeties in the NFL as the former 7^th-round pick is struggling to adjust to playing in Cincinnati.

Tennessee vs Indianapolis

While the Titans have gotten off to a disappointing 1-3 start, Tony Pollard has more than done his share over the first four games this season. Despite the lack of success passing the ball, Pollard has topped 60 yards in three of his four games so far this season. This is a running back who has had to deal with a committee as the Titans remain committed to giving Tyjae Spears a role in this offense despite the struggles of the second-year running back. Spears has found success as a receiver but has not been able to find the success that he had last season as the change-of-pace type running back. So far in 2024, Spears is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry with no carry longer than 11 yards. Pollard’s carries to Spears so far this season are about 2.5 carries for every 1 of Spears’ carries and if Pollard continues to find success averaging 4.0 yards-per-carry even with one of the league’s worst offensive lines, then this could be a scenario where that ratio grows even more.

Indianapolis had shown signs of turning their run defenses around in Weeks 3 and 4 as they completely shut down Chicago and Pittsburgh, but their defensive issues were exposed again in Week 5 as Tank Bigsby ran for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns against this Colts defense. Bigsby becomes the third running back this season to top 100-yards against Indianapolis as Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs both topped 150 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Unlike some other teams on this list, it’s difficult to point to a single reason why the Colts are struggling other than they have some promising players at each level, but also some holes as well. The good is that rookie Laiatu Latu has been one of the best defensive rookies in this 2024 class as the defensive lineman continues to make plays. However, there are holes as this is not a deep defensive line that rotates a significant number of players since they lost both DeForest Buckner and Tyquan Lewis to IR. This has forced Dayo Odeyingbo to play more snaps than the team would like as he was on the field for 84% of the snaps in Week 5 and is a liability in run defense. The Colts are also incredibly thin at linebacker as they’re playing E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin 100% of plays typically playing the entire game in Nickel as they do not have a third linebacker that they’re comfortable with along with trying to help the pass defense by adding an additional corner. The only good news for the Colts this week could be that they defend similarly to the Bears and Steelers in Weeks 3 and 4 by loading the box not respecting the passing games of those teams.

Baltimore vs Washington

Derrick Henry has been as good as the Ravens had hoped he might be this season. While Henry struggled in Week 1, we’ve now come to realize that the Chiefs may have the best run defense in the NFL. Since Week 2, Henry is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game and has scored a touchdown in every game this season. If Henry can somehow keep this pace over the last four games up, he’s on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing-yard single-season record. Defending this offense is about as difficult as it comes as you have the reigning MVP at quarterback, an elite center and left tackle in Tyler Lindbenbaum and Ronnie Stanley, a 380-pound right guard in Daniel Faalele, and a 310-pound full-back in Patrick Ricard. Not to mention a 250-pound running back who has clocked the second-fastest speed amongst all running backs in the 2024 season trailing only Saquon Barkley as Henry ran 21.44 miles per hour.

Dan Quinn has a big job to completely overhaul this defense, and while the signs are there that this is a defense that is starting to turn around, there is still more work that needs to be done. The good news for Washington is that they have two elite run-stopping linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. The bad news is that this is a team with one of the worst run-stopping defensive lines in the NFL as they’ve quickly fallen off from one of the league’s best to losing Montez Sweat and Chase Young and are now amongst the league’s worst as Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are no longer the defensive linemen that you fear along this defense and have become liabilities in the run game as they’re primarily focusing on rushing the passer at this point of their career. This is a defense that has faced one of the easiest schedules when it comes to opposing running backs this year and is still allowing 114 rushing yards per game to the running back position as Devin Singletary and James Conner both topped 90 yards against this team. This will be a significant test for Washington this week as Baltimore’s dynamic duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are far and away better than the teams they’ve faced in Tampa Bay, New York Giants, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Cleveland.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

Washington at Baltimore

The Commanders just can’t seem to be able to keep their running backs healthy this season, as Brian Robinson Jr did not practice on Wednesday with a knee injury. In a blowout victory, Robinson saw just seven carries and did not play the second half of the Commanders' blowout victory against Cleveland. If Robinson is unable to go, the Commanders will turn to a combination of Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols to carry the load this week. Ekeler who missed time earlier this season, looked great last week as he had 67 yards on 6 carries which was setup by a 50-yard carry, while McNichols has been outstanding in relief for Ekeler and Robinson as he is averaging 7.1 yards-per-carry on the season including three touchdowns over the last two weeks. If Robinson were to miss, McNichols’ role likely becomes the primary guy, with Ekeler’s role likely cemented into the third-down and change-of-pace running back for this team as he’s dealing with a heel injury and is less than 100%.

The Ravens are as good as it gets when it comes to stopping the run. They’re combining the perfect storm of elite run-stoppers who are benefitting from a funnel defense as the Ravens' pass defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL so far this season. On the year, no running back has topped 50 yards against Baltimore as they’re allowing just 2.8 yards per carry thus far. This is a team that has built a defensive line weighing close to 1,000 pounds between the three players in Travis Jones, Justin Madubuike, and Broderick Washington which frees up space for Roquan Smith who is amongst the game's best tacklers when he does not have to deal with shedding blocks which is his one downfall at times. On the edge, the Ravens have two very good run-stopping outside linebackers in Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy, and while the safeties have struggled in pass coverage, they are strong run-stoppers, especially Kyle Hamilton who is amongst the best-tackling safeties in the NFL.

Dallas vs Detroit

Rico Dowdle appears to be grasping a firm hold on the running back position after having 22 touches to Ezekiel Elliott’s 6 touches last week. Despite questions on the offensive line for Dallas, Dowdle has been able to consistently move the ball as he is averaging 4.1 yards-per-carry despite his longest carry on the season being just 13 yards. Dowdle is a straightforward, back who is happy to take 3-4 yards instead of trying to break the big run as his longest carry in his career is just 21 yards. Based on the moves that Dallas has made, they’re more than happy with a player like Dowdle who is going to provide at least a threat on the ground who can overcome significant flaws on the offensive line. The Cowboys are starting two rookies on their offensive line at the most crucial positions and it’s showing. First-round left tackle Tyler Guyton and third-round center Cooper Beebe have both struggled run-blocking this season, while the Cowboys do have two very good guards in Zach Martin and Tyler Smith.

Detroit is amongst the league’s best run-stopping units in 2024. This is another team that heavily utilizes their run-stopping defensive tackles, as Alim McNeil and D.J. Reader are amongst the best duos in the NFL this season. At defensive end, the Lions have Aidan Hutchinson who is amongst the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. While the defensive line is the star of this unit, this is a team that has heavily invested in their linebackers and safeties to stop the run. 2023 first-round pick Jack Campbell is starting to play like a first-round pick after struggling in 2023, while both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are elite run-stopping safety duos. Before the bye week, Detroit did allow Ken Walker III to run for 80 yards and 3 touchdowns in a crazy Monday Night game that exploded into a shootout. However, even with that game, the streak of no running back topping 100 yards continues as the last running back to top the 100-yard mark was in Week 16 of the 2022 season the Lions have now gone 26 games without an opposing running back doing it and only Christian McCaffrey has topped 80 yards.

Las Vegas vs Pittsburgh

With no Zamir White last week, the Raiders’ rushing attack was non-existent against Denver outside of some garbage time production from Ameer Abdullah who found the end-zone while the team was down 34-10. Alexander Mattison carried the load for the Raiders but was ineffective as he averaged just 2.5 yards-per-carry, amassing 38 yards on 15 carries. The Raiders may be without White once again as he did not practice on Wednesday with a groin injury. Whether it is White or Mattison, the expectations should be low for the Raiders as White has averaged just 3.1 yards-per-carry in the season and the Raiders are 30^th in rushing yards this season. This offensive line has major holes in it as center Andre James is one of the worst run-blocking centers in the NFL. At the same time, rookie left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson has been overmatched since replacing Cody Whitehair who the team brought in to be a veteran starter, but he was one of the worst run blockers in the NFL. The Raiders will get Thayer Munford back at right tackle, but Munford has been a below-average run-blocker, but a good pass-blocker throughout his career. This is a team that going into the season seemed to have deprioritized the rushing attack both on the offensive line and at the running back position and the results are showing thus far.

Pittsburgh’s run defense has been solid this season, as they’re allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and 77 rushing yards per game which is sixth in the NFL this season. This is a defense that from a scheme standpoint can determine how they want to defend a team, as it all depends on whether Elandon Roberts is on the field. When Elandon Roberts is on the field, this is possibly the best run-stopping unit in the NFL, as Roberts is a true run-game specialist while an absolute liability in pass coverage. The issue is that when Roberts is not on the field, they have some issues at linebacker as rookie Payton Wilson is still a work in progress, while Patrick Queen has struggled with run defense throughout most of his career. At safety, this is a unit that is extremely talented with Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott who is one of the best run-stopping safeties in the NFL as the two safeties lead the team in tackles. The big question heading into this game will be the replacement of Nick Herbig who was having a fantastic season opposite of T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. Without Herbig, the Steelers will likely rotate Isaiahh Loudermilk and Jeremiah Moon as they are also Alex Highsmith for Week 6 as he suffered a groin injury back in Week 3.

Chicago vs Jacksonville

D’Andre Swift looks like a completely different player compared to the first couple of weeks. Over the first three games of the season, Swift had 68 total rushing yards on 37 carries. Over the last two weeks, Swift has 166 rushing yards also on 37 carries. A big reason for Swift’s success has been the improvement in the offensive line, as the team had some big questions heading into this season. The Bears benched Nate Davis after Week 2 starting Matt Pryor at right guard. Pryor has completely changed this offensive line as the benching of Davis seems to have inspired the rest of the offensive line after some questions about Davis’ work ethic were surrounding this team. Also helping this rushing offense is the play of Caleb Williams as the Bears have looked far more competent over the last two weeks forcing defenses to respect the Bears passing game instead of stacking the box.

Jacksonville’s run defense has been the bright spot on the 1-4 Jaguars season. On the year, they’re allowing just 78 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs which is the 7^th-best in the NFL, and no running back has topped 65 yards this season. While they have been the strength of this defense, there are some red flags to monitor going forward. First, this is a defense that has been amongst the league’s worst passing defense this season as they’re allowing 299 passing yards per game which is the second-most in the NFL, and the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The other issue that the Jaguars could face is that the schedule that they’ve faced so far is amongst the league’s easiest. This won’t be a problem this week, as they’re once again facing a bottom-tier run offense in Chicago, but this is a Jaguars defense that has faced Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo, Houston with no Joe Mixon or Dameon Pierce, and Indianapolis with no Jonathan Taylor. Their most impressive performance was holding De’Von Achane to just 24 yards on 10 carries, but Achane has struggled this season averaging just 3.3 yards per carry overall. The Jaguars have some strong run-stoppers in Josh Hines-Allen and linebacker Devin Lloyd, but as the competition becomes stronger whether the loss of Foyesade Oluokun will have an impact on this defense as Oluokun will not be eligible to return until Week 8.

Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts rushing upside this week will be entirely dependent on Jonathan Taylor’s availability this week. Taylor missed practice on Wednesday but was “feeling good” to start this week. The Colts without Taylor last week were unable to find much success on the ground as they had a committee of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. Sermon, who had 16 touches last week, also missed practice on Wednesday with a collarbone injury. Sermon seems more likely than Taylor as Sermon was on the field for the entire game in Week 5, so the injury is more likely to rest than anything as it’s not a tissue or joint injury. The Colts are incredibly thin at running back as they are only carrying three on the roster, so if Taylor misses, we can expect to see Sermon once again have a significant role in this offense. If Sermon is also out, we would see Tyler Goodson who has shown some upside in the two games that he has seen a significant role. Last season he had 11 carries for 69 yards against Pittsburgh, while last week he had 5 carries for 26 yards.  

Coming off of a bye week, Tennessee will look to build upon its strong run defense over the first four weeks. Through their first four games, Tennessee is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs which is third in the NFL this season behind only Kansas City and Baltimore. The Titans have not allowed a running back to top 65 yards this season with only Breece Hall topping 50 on the year as the Titans have shut down D’Andre Swift, De’Von Achane, and Josh Jacobs. This is a defense that has an elite defensive line with two-time All-Pro Jeffrey Simmons playing alongside rookie T’Vondre Sweat who at 370 pounds has been a tremendous help to this run defense. The linebacker unit does have issues as Kenneth Murray Jr. continues to be one of the worst run-stopping linebackers in the NFL throughout his career. The safeties Qandree Diggs and Amani Hooker are both solid run-stoppers that have helped the linebackers this season.