Roundtable: Dynasty Quarterback Value Check

Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Tyson Bagent are all intriguing young passers who have intriguing potential as NFL starters. Which young quarterback has the most long-term value? 

Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Fantasy vs. Reality II
• 2025 Free Agent Running Backs
• Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
• Dynasty Quarterback Value Check (see below)

Let's roll.

Dynasty QB Value Check

Matt Waldman: I have three questions about these QBs (think next 2-3 seasons).

• Tyson Bagent
• Michael Penix Jr., Jr.
• JJ McCarthy

Let's begin. 

Who Has the Most Upside If the Situation Weren't A Factor? 

Phil Alexander: Michael Penix Jr., Jr. has the most upside, regardless of his situation. He is the only one of these three we can confidently say combines the pocket smarts, arm strength, and deep-ball touch to become a star in the NFL. His starting debut in Week 16 is appointment viewing. 

Ryan Weisse: McCarthy was a hyper-efficient quarterback in college and should take over as Minnesota's starter next season. In an offense that includes Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, the upside is virtually limitless. We've seen Sam Darnold play like a top-5 quarterback at points this season, and McCarthy, in theory, should be able to best Darnold. 

Joseph Haggan: Michael Penix Jr. has the most upside. He won games with his arm in college. Penix proved that he could take control of a game and run a high-powered passing offense.

The Falcons started the season hot but have since fallen to a 7-7 record. Cousins didn't light the football world on fire, and giving Penix a shot may be in the team's best interest. Because of this, I think he has the best situation as well. 

Corey Spala: Michael Penix Jr. would have the most upside with consideration of his traits. He has the arm talent to make a pass at all levels. Additionally, it is noted that he has the vision for his progressions and manipulates defensive backs with his eyes. 

Having the intelligence to gather pre-snap reads and process the field is a desirable skill to have. Further development will help refine his weakness, notably his lower-body mechanics. Looking at the total package, Penix has the upside desired from a quarterback. 

Who Has the Best Situation? 

Spala: J.J. McCarthy would offer the most upside with Minnesota as Sam Darnold is not currently under contract for the 2025 season. Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson provides the best surrounding offensive talent.

Aaron Jones is not under contract in 2025, but having a competent running back helps, too. However, I am more concerned with Kevin O'Connell and his ability to acquire value within his quarterbacks.  

Weisse: While my answer to the first question would lend itself to answering McCarthy, Sam Darnold happened. Penix has been given the job thanks to Kirk Cousins' poor play.

Penix will have Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and one of the best backfields in football to lean on. Penix now has the last three games of 2024 to end Cousins' stint in Atlanta.

If he plays well, the job is his next season. If Penix has no competition for the starting job, his situation feels better than McCarthy's. 

Haggan: McCarthy may have the most natural talent, but during his time in Michigan, he never truly took over games. It was a run-heavy system where he was never truly unleashed.

That may have been a detriment to his development. Now, he missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, while Sam Darnold has been terrific. This makes his situation even cloudier.

Alexander: Watching Sam Darnold go from afterthought to fringe MVP candidate after one training camp working with Kevin O'Connell makes it seem silly to argue against McCarthy's situation in Minnesota.

Throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson for the foreseeable future puts it over the top. Of course, Darnold (specifically how far Darnold can take Minnesota in the playoffs) is an unknown factor that complicates McCarthy's future situation with the Vikings. 

Darnold's play has forced the team to keep an open mind about signing him to an extension, which would torpedo McCarthy's dynasty value. It's more likely that Darnold signs a big-money deal to start for another team, but the Vikings are also getting a close look at Daniel Jones as a potential veteran bridge for 2025.

What happens to McCarthy if Jones starts in Week 1 next season and quickly becomes O'Connell's next successful busted New York quarterback reclamation project? 

Waldman: I'll buy a Jones jersey and wear it on air in early 2026.