Roundtable: Fantasy vs. Reality

Some players have better fantasy value than real-life value. For others, the opposite is true. 

Welcome to Week 15 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Fantasy vs. Reality (see below)
• Player Storylines to Validate or Debunk
• Potential League-Winning WRs
• Dynasty RB Value Check

Let's roll. 

Fantasy vs. Reality

Matt Waldman: Consider these four pairs of established talents at the main fantasy positions. 

• Josh Allen - Joe Burrow
• De'Von Achane - Josh Jacobs
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Garrett Wilson
• Cade Otton - Mark Andrews

Pick two pairs from the list and tell me which ones from each pair you prefer for fantasy over the next two seasons and which you'd prefer if you ran a real team. 

Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow

Gary Davenport: Joe Burrow is having a fantastic season and is an elite quarterback. But he's not Josh Allen. Allen's rushing upside gives him a clear edge in fantasy, and he doesn't have Burrow's injury history. Allen's the pick there—whether you're talking fantasy football or in the NFL itself. 

Jeff Bell: Allen for both fantasy and real football. Fantasy football is simple. No player has scored more fantasy points over the last five years than Allen. In Week 13, he became the first quarterback to throw, run, and "catch" a touchdown in the same game.

He followed that up in Week 14 by becoming the first player with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Burrow has been hot, but Allen has more ways to score points.  

In real football, the skillsets used to accumulate fantasy points show up. Yes, Burrow's team has beaten Allen's team. And Burrow has even beaten Patrick Mahomes II in the playoffs. In those games, Burrow playing with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has shown as a significant difference maker. Starting a team from scratch or with neutral weapons, Allen is better. 

Justin Howe: Allen is the gold standard in fantasy: an MVP-caliber passer who's simultaneously feared in the open field. He produces chunk plays both by air and by freight, and he's also the team's goalline back – even when he shouldn't be. 

In reality, though, it's fair to trim at least a few years off Allen's long-term outlook for viability. He's an exceptionally physical guy who refuses to die easy, and his bottom will likely drop out health-wise sooner than for most. Burrow has fought off injuries of his own, but his less mobile and less physical style should age better. He could still be posting 5,000-yard seasons 5-7 years from now.

Jason Wood: I prefer Josh Allen as both a fantasy player and a real-life NFL quarterback. Let's not besmirch Joe Burrow; he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and very few franchises would pass up the chance to build around him. 

Allen's continued maturation astounds me. This year, he's running as much as ever, but he's also throwing with more accuracy and not turning the ball over. He only has 5 interceptions against 23 passing touchdowns, with an elite 8.32 adjusted yards per attempt.  

Waldman: I believe Burrow is a smarter, wiser, and more technically proficient quarterback from the pocket and how he manages a game. Allen has improved dramatically over the years and he's getting assistance to become a more mature leader. 

While I might begrudgingly take Allen, you will see me dancing at the prospect that I could have Burrow instead. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Garrett Wilson

Davenport: In the battle of Ohio State receivers (they have produced a few in recent years), I'll take Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy leagues. His quarterback situation is more settled, and Geno Smith has demonstrated quite an affinity for targeting the second-year pro.

Garrett Wilson is the choice for an NFL team. As much as I like Smith-Njigba, Wilson is just a superior talent. 

Wood: This one is easy; give me Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy and Garrett Wilson in real life. Wilson has the talent, polish, route-running, hands, and instincts to be right up there with CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase, but he's been hamstrung by awful offensive systems and poor quarterbacking. Put him with a top-tier quarterback, and he's putting up All-Pro numbers.

But for fantasy purposes, I'll give Smith-Njigba the edge because he's already delivering above expectations, and we've seen the light go off this year after an erratic rookie season. 

Dan Hindery: For both fantasy and real-life value, I lean toward Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His quarterback situation is more stable, with Geno Smith proving he can support big production.

Since Week 9, Smith-Njigba has been the fantasy WR3 (behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Jerry Jeudy) and has thrived as a downfield threat. While Wilson is more explosive, Smith-Njigba's body control and sideline awareness are elite.

Wilson has left some plays on the field because of his inability to get two feet down, which is what you expect top wide receivers to do. Wilson is also stuck in quarterback purgatory. With Aaron Rodgers unlikely to return in 2025, Wilson could face another season of instability—whether it's a rookie QB or a stopgap veteran.

While Wilson's talent is undeniable, Smith-Njigba's situation gives him the edge for both fantasy and NFL value over the next two seasons.

Howe: In reality, Wilson is the superior talent, even if they're relatively even in my eyes, fantasy-wise. He's superior to all but 5-7 receivers across the league.

Wilson bounces around the formation, while Smith-Njigba takes nearly 90% of his snaps from the slot. Wilson is better at getting open on his own and is also the better athlete in space. It's stunning to think where he'd be if his QB were more capable of getting the ball downfield.

Alas, Aaron Rodgers sits 29th league-wide in bad throw rate and 30th in completed air yardage rate.

Andy Hicks: For the next two years, give me Smith-Njigba. He has developed into an elite receiver and will be a cornerstone of the Seahawks' offense for years to come.

He's No.6 overall for fantasy receivers -- one ahead of Wilson. The problem for Wilson over the next two years is his team.

The Jets will have to start at quarterback and head coach again. He has already underachieved relative to his potential and should be one of the premiere receivers in the league. Scoring only 12 touchdowns in 3 years and barely gaining 1,000 yards each of those years is disappointing, considering how good he is.  

For these reasons, if I ran a real team, teaming up Wilson with a decent quarterback and a strong offense would be a priority. Some players never catch a break in this league or have their potential unrealized. Fingers crossed that Wilson can break that mold.