Roundtable: Rebound or Regroup? Declining Performers

Fantasy performers rarely deliver steady production and that includes starters like Drake London, Kyren Williams, and Jayden Daniels. This trio is a part of seven other declining performers we're discussing this week.

Welcome to Week 12 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Rebound or Regroup? Declining Performers (see below)
• Tommy DeVito's Potential
• Performers on the Rise? Or False Alarm?
• Would You Rather...

Let's roll. 

Rebound or Regroup? Declining Performers

Matt Waldman: Here are seven notable players who have experienced declining production since Week 7. 

• Jayden Daniels: QB6 but QB17 since Week 7
• Baker Mayfield: QB5 but QB14 since Week 7
• Chuba Hubbard: RB10 but RB19 since Week 7
• D'Andre Swift RB17 but RB24 since Week 7 
• Kyren Williams RB7 but RB16 since Week 7
• Jayden Reed WR11 but WR50 since Week 7
• Drake London WR5 but WR19 since Week 7

Pick the two who are most likely to rebound for fantasy GMs. Pick the two who are least likely to recover their value. 

Rebounders

Andy Hicks: Counting bye weeks for declining production is fraught with difficulties.

Waldman: And you, my friend, have immediately reached one of the important themes of this week's topic -- look beyond the surface of the question. Well done, as usual. 

Hicks: Thank you. This is why Chuba Hubbard tops my list. If we take the stats from Week 7 through Week 10, he ranks as RB12.

His last game was 150-plus rushing yards and a touchdown. Maybe we see Jonathon Brooks; maybe we don’t. It doesn’t matter. Hubbard is the starting back and most effective runner.

The Chiefs this week will be difficult, but his run in the fantasy playoffs is soft. The Cowboys, Cardinals, and Bucs. All are bottom-10 run defenses.  

Two of Baker Mayfield's games during this span were against the Chiefs and 49ers. And he lost Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. With Evans scheduled to return after the bye, look at Mayfield's schedule for the next six weeks: the Panthers (twice), the Giants, the Raiders, and the Cowboys.

I considered placing Mayfield in the camp of least likely to rebound, but this schedule is cake. Mayfield has been performing ok with inferior talent. Evans restores Mayfield's ceiling when he returns. 

Jeff Haseley: I agree with Andy on both counts. It was expected that Mayfield would see a drop in production after losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Thankfully, Evans is expected to return to action this week, which would most assuredly help Mayfield. Tampa's schedule only has one tough matchup at LA with the Chargers in Week 15. I'll add to Andy's list that the Saints are also a good matchup. 

I see Carolina using a two-headed approach with Jonathon Brooks and Hubbard in the back half of the season. The schedule has several games that favor the run, and Carolina is starting to get healthy at the right time. The plan all along was always to run the ball in Carolina; I believe that comes to fruition, with both backs being a big part of the game plan. 

Sam Wagman: Mayfield has one of the easier schedules remaining as my peers mentioned. Getting Mike Evans back, potentially this week, and that gives me a ton of faith in Mayfield.

Evans' return will be a massive key for the veteran, who has managed to keep things very rosy despite the loss of his starting duo.

I'm also completely invested in London having a similarly rosy outlook. With games against the Giants, Vikings, Raiders, and Commanders left, I believe London will continue to garner a near-35% target share. Darnell Mooney sustained an injury this past week and is questionable, so it may also factor. 

Ryan Weisse: Drake London has been playing hurt, and the Falcons got their bye at the perfect time. They can recoup and recover as a team, which is much needed after their last two games.

The schedule opens up nicely in Week 13, with matchups against the Chargers and Vikings, both of which allow good points to receivers, and then winable games against the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders. London is still the best receiver in Atlanta, and this week off should help him get right. 

Jeff Bell: No team needs a bye more than the Falcons, who are limping into Week 12.  London suffered a hip injury that cut his Week 9 short. He still scored in that game but missed the last three quarters.

He rebounded in Week 10, and his 13 targets tied a season-high. His 97 yards were the second-best total of the year. 

In Week 11, he ran up against Patrick Surtain II Jr., one of the most challenging cornerback matchups in the NFL. London's high placement early in the season was attributable to five touchdowns in six games. But there is little reason to think he can not do that again.  

Weisse: Touchdowns giveth, and touchdowns taketh away. Kyren Williams has been one of the best scorers in the league over the last two seasons but is in a three-game drought, causing the dip in rankings.

The schedule gets better once you get past his Week 12 matchup with Philadephia, and he is still a bell cow for the Rams. Once he starts to find the endzone again, we'll see a correction in that ranking.

Joseph Haggan: I agree with Ryan that Kyren Williams has the best opportunity to rebound. His role has barely changed within the offense. The volume is still there, averaging just under 19 carries since Week 7 and 11 targets.

Although the low target rate is alarming, he has two games with five targets. The fact Williams has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week 7 is a bigger reason why he has dropped overall.

I do not foresee this as a rest-of-season thing. Williams should get back into the scoring column and shoot back up the rankings. 

Jeff Bell: William's efficiency is slightly down from his breakout 2023 season. However, he still maintains his Bellcow status in the Rams backfield, and his fantasy production dip is entirely related to a lack of touchdowns.

He was on the verge of breaking the Rams’ franchise record for consecutive rushing touchdowns (Greg Bell’s 10 is the record) before it was snapped in Week 8. He has not scored a rushing touchdown since.

The Rams have one of the best offenses in the NFL, especially with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy. It should only be a matter of time before Williams breaks the drought and potentially starts a new streak.  

Haggan: My peers will likely see it otherwise, but D'Andre Swift should be able to ascend to his previous standing. I get it. Matt Eberflus has choked out the Bears' offense, and it may continue.

Still, I don't believe an RB17 value is difficult for Swift to earn. Swift still has the volume with about 17 carries per game and has the potential to be disruptive in the passing game.

We saw Swift make that impact earlier in the year, and Thomas Brown is returning to the short passing game, which could benefit Swift.

If Eberflus wants to retain his job, he needs to get creative with his weapons and help Caleb Williams make easier throws in rhythm. If Swift gets involved in the passing game again, he should not have a problem achieving RB17.