Roundtable: Trey Lance's Potential

Jerry Jones silenced current questions about Trey Lance drawing a Week 11 start when he told the media that Cooper Rush currently gives Dallas the best chance to win despite a bad outing in Week 10. Even so, we've seen NFL owners change their minds quickly and it could lead to Lance running the Cowboys offense down the stretch of 2024. 

Welcome to Week 11 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Giants QB Lock's Potential
• Cowboys QB Lance's Potential (see below)
• Late-Week Replacement Picks
• Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels

Let's roll. 

Trey Lance 

Matt Waldman: Let's examine Trey Lance's potential fantasy impact on the Cowboys' offense if Jerry Jones changes his mind about Cooper Rush offering Dallas the best chance to win in 2024. 

Go...

Lance's potential benefits...

Phil Alexander: Rushing. And the occasional downfield splash play. It's a small sample, but in the three career games Lance started and finished, he rushed for 89, 31, and 54 yards, respectively. And while he'll take big hits, throw interceptions, and only complete about 50% of his passes, his career mark of 7.57 yards per pass attempt suggests he can open up the downfield passing game in a way Cooper Rush cannot. 

Dan Hindery: As Phil mentioned, Lance's rushing ability is a significant asset, and his mobility could be especially valuable behind an offensive line that isn’t anywhere near the level the Cowboys' line was a few years ago. 

Jason Wood: Despite being the third overall pick in the 2021 draft, we know very little about Trey Lance. He only started one full season in college, at North Dakota State, facing competition that isn’t predictive of NFL success.

Since then, he's only appeared in nine games, started four, and attempted 108 passes. The 49ers effectively gave up on him before giving him a real shot, and now he’s sitting behind Prescott.  

The upside for Lance is his athleticism and mobility. He’s averaged 6.3 carries per game, and at 6-foot-4, 226 pounds, has the strength to handle a heavy workload.

With the Cowboys struggling in the run game this year, he could unlock that facet of the offense, ideally opening up play-action opportunities to target CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert downfield. 

Corey Spala: Trey Lance’s upside comes from his athleticism and ability to accumulate yards with his legs. Lance has completed 55.6% of his career. Dallas should utilize this strength in their play calling, as defenses cannot commit to forcing Lance to throw the ball. This may open up the offense by allowing play-action and utilizing Lance’s arm strength down the field. 

Sean Settle: The biggest thing he brings to the table is his size and mobility. We know very little about Lance overall, as he has not gotten a sustained run in the NFL. He has shown poor decision-making and turned the ball over in the past, but his running ability should be a big boost for this offense and open up play-action and other passes downfield. At the very least, Lance will open up the running game and give the offense a more balanced attack to end the season. 

Matt Montgomery: As simple as it may sound, we need to see something on the field that justifies his ability to stat more games. The 49ers got rid of him in favor of Brock Purdy, much to the chagrin of Lance managers.

I trust the scouting prowess of that organization to know what quarterbacks can work in that system. We saw flashes of good from Lance before his injury, but we didn’t see anything that puts the team in a spot where he has to start consecutive games and ultimately go win a job.   

Lance's greatest beneficiary...

Hindery: Nobody. I don't trust Lance to elevate the pass catchers in this offense. Every time we've seen him on an NFL field, he’s looked skittish. It’s hard to know exactly where Lance stands today since he hasn’t seen much playing time.

However, the fact that he wasn’t the backup and didn’t start last week, combined with what we saw in the preseason, gives us some logical insight into what the coaches who see him daily in practice likely think about his readiness. 

Wood: I agree with Dan that there’s a strong probability that Lance doesn’t boost the offense. Kyle Shanahan has a long history of building great offenses and moved on from Lance quickly. 

Alexander: CeeDee Lamb. Rush can support better games from Lamb than last week's 10-6-21-0, but you didn't draft Lamb at the top of Round 1 for replacement-level wide receiver production. He'll be more inconsistent with Lance at quarterback, but at least 100-yard receiving games will return to Lamb's range of possible outcomes. 

Wood: Assuming Mike McCarthy can better utilize Lance’s strengths, the biggest beneficiary could be CeeDee Lamb. I agree with Phil that if the Cowboys stick with Cooper Rush, Lamb’s value as a top-5 fantasy receiver goes up in smoke.

Rush lacks the arm strength and aggressiveness to consistently target Lamb vertically. Lance has the arm and aggressiveness, and if his rushing ability loosens up the defense, Lamb doesn't need much of a window to capitalize. 

Spala: CeeDee Lamb has the superior probability to be the greatest beneficiary. He will be hyper-targeted, regardless of who is under center. He is their most important player and will need to be a focal point of the offensive game plan. Now, this is assuming Dallas will make the necessary offensive adjustments.  j

Settle: If Lance gets an extended look, CeeDee Lamb should benefit the most. With Cooper Rush under center, Lamb is more of a decoy and field-stretcher. Rush lacks the arm strength to push the ball down the field. Lance has the arm and aggressiveness to get Lamb the ball downfield. Lance may not increase the value of Lamb, but he does not hurt it as much as Rush does.