Roundtable: Drew Lock's Potential

The Giants are on bye this week. When the press asked head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen about Daniel Jones' future, neither would commit to Jones remaining the starting quarterback in Week 12. NFL insider Adam Schefter speculated Jones' career as the Giants' starter is over. 

What matters most to us is how this impacts the Giants' fantasy options. If Drew Lock earns the starting nod, who should we buy, sell, and hold in this offense? 

Welcome to Week 11 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Giants QB Lock's Potential (see below)
• Cowboys QB Lance's Potential
• Late-Week Replacement Picks
• Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels

Let's roll. 

Drew Lock

Matt Waldman: Lock could potentially be starting for his respective NFC Least team within the next week or two.  

• What could he offer to generate a positive outcome as a starter? 
• Who could be the greatest beneficiary in the offense?
• What starter could his presence hurt the most? 
• Evaluate his schedule and the best two matchups remaining for him to succeed. 

Share your thoughts. 

Lock's potential benefits...

Sean Settle: Drew Lock is statistically no different than Daniel Jones and even trails in many categories across his career. I feel Lock has gotten a quick hook in almost every situation he has been in despite performing well for a Denver team that was missing three of its four major offensive starters when he took over.

The biggest thing he will bring to the table is his aggression downfield. Lock has never been afraid to let it fly, even into triple coverage, and will likely target Malik Nabers 10+ times per game. Lock is not a major upgrade over Daniels, but the offense should look different if he is given any time in the pocket. 

Phil Alexander: We last saw Lock start two games for the Seahawks in Weeks 13-14 of the 2023 season. He was no world-beater, but the results were at least more encouraging than his disastrous run as Denver's hopeful franchise quarterback.

Across the two starts, Lock completed 69% of his passes, averaged 239 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has his work cut out for him playing behind this Giants offensive line, but Lock has more arm talent than Daniel Jones.

If the glimpses we saw last year in Seattle were any indication, he could be a slight-to-moderate upgrade for New York's pass catchers. 

Matt Montgomery: I do not believe Drew Lock will do anything that would be more than a neutral shift at the quarterback position. He doesn’t possess any talents that the league covets and he will likely be a bridge starter or backup for the rest of his career, so a starting job wouldn’t be something that would elevate players on his team.  

Dan Hindery: Confidence and a fresh start. It feels like the Giants and Daniel Jones have reached a point where the team enters games and doesn’t expect to win. You wonder if Jones has been beaten down mentally by the last couple of seasons. This offense looks like it needs some kind of spark. Lock has a shot to offer that. We saw Seattle rally around him when he took over for an injured Geno Smith last season.  

Jason Wood: Let's be clear: Drew Lock is very likely not a better quarterback than Daniel Jones. Comparing their career per-game averages, Jones has the edge in nearly every way.

Jones has a 64% career completion rate versus Lock's 59%. Although Lock has a better touchdown rate (3.5% vs. 3.1%), he has a worse interception rate (2.9% vs. 2.1%).

Jones is also a much better runner. Perhaps most importantly, Lock is terrible under pressure. No quarterback thrives under pressure versus a clean pocket, but Lock effectively lost his job in Denver because of a complete inability to handle the pass rush. Without Jones' mobility, Lock's time as the Giants' "savior" may well be short-lived.  

So why make the change? The honest reason is it's effectively the only (slim) chance Brian Daboll has of keeping his job. He's been increasingly vocal about the offense's failures, stemming from not taking shots downfield and creating big plays.

If he can at least show some improvement with Lock in that department, he can make the case to ownership that their struggles were a Daniel Jones problem. It's a Hail Mary decision, but one motivated by the coaches and front office's need for self-preservation. 

Corey Spala: I would not be excited for Drew Lock to start over Daniel Jones. He is not necessarily better, at least from a statistical standpoint. Jason Wood noted that Jones is superior in categories like completion percentage and has a lower interception rate.

Hitting home on the fact Jones is a superior runner, which generates fantasy points. Lock does offer a fresh boost to the offense, but defenses have 30 games of film to evaluate. 

Waldman: They do, but in a different offense, and that's half of the reason why they may not use it. 

Lock's greatest beneficiary...

Settle: Malik Nabers should be the biggest beneficiary if only because he should see more targets. Jones has not targeted Nabers nearly as much since the rookie receiver suffered his concussion and there has been reported discord between the 2 players at practice and in the media.

Lock is not afraid to test the defense and will likely force the ball to Nabers no matter the coverage. Look for double-digit targets per game if Lock takes over. 

Hindery: Malik Nabers. The targets have been there this season for Nabers, but fewer have been deep down the field. There have been some times in recent weeks where it looked like Nabers was open for potential big gains, but Jones was too gunshy to pull the trigger and instead checked down or just held the ball. Lock is more likely to take chances and try to fit the ball into tighter windows. 

Spala: Malik Nabers would be the greatest beneficiary in the offense. He has proven why he was selected with the sixth overall pick this year. He should be a focal point of an offense, regardless of which quarterback is under center. 

Montgomery: I believe Lock directly benefits the running game because they will be forced to do this more often. I also believe that the check downs/ outlet passes will be more of a factor in the immediate short term. 

Alexander: Malik Nabers. Lock is mobile in the pocket and can make throws on the run. If he can extend plays, maybe Nabers can get more creative than the short tight-end routes he's been running since offensive tackle Andrew Thomas was lost to a foot injury. 

Wood: The coaches hope that Malik Nabers is the answer. The rookie is the kind of transcendent talent that can make plays when targeted, even when he's bracketed or covered well by talented defensive backs.

But of late, for whatever reason, Daniel Jones has been reluctant to trust Nabers on 50/50 balls downfield. Whether Lock has the pocket comfort to let Nabers work downfield and find him with pressure mounting is another question entirely. 

Whom Lock hurts the most...

Settle: The defense is likely to suffer the most under this new arrangement. The offense has not been good with Jones, but his turnover rate is lower than Lock. Even a 3-and-out by the offense gives the defense more rest than if Lock throws an interception right away. The Giants’ defense and special teams have kept them in games so far this season, but they may suffer with a quarterback who is more prone to turning the ball over. 

Spala: I would imagine Lock would affect Tyrone Tracy Jr. the most. Jason Wood noted Lock cannot break the pocket compared to Jones. This would create a mismatch against Tracy as defenses focus on stopping him because Lock is no threat on the ground. 

Hindery: Tyrone Tracy Jr.. has been averaging 98.8 total yards per game over his last six. While there is no specific reason to think a quarterback change would harm him, any deviation from the status quo for a guy who has been on fire of late is potentially worrisome. 

Wood: The Giants' offense is so inept there are only two players that should be in fantasy lineups: Nabers and running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. Tracy could theoretically be hurt by Lock's inability to break the pocket as well as Jones, which will allow defenses to key on Tracy and not have to play a more holistic rush defense scheme.  

Alexander: Maybe Tyrone Tracy Jr. gets dinged slightly since defenses no longer have to account for Jones as a rushing threat, but this is probably a lateral move for the entire offense. 

Spala: Jason noted which defenses are weak in pass rushing: Tampa Bay (Week 12) and Baltimore (Week 15). I thought we should also look at which defenses allow the most passing yards. It appears Tampa Bay and Baltimore allow the most passing yards. I would imagine the inability to rush the passer is the common denominator.  

Giants' schedule and Lock's best potential matchups...

Hindery: The Giants' remaining schedule is incredibly favorable for quarterbacks. Five of their next six opponents rank as top-10 matchups for quarterbacks, including all three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. After their Week 11 bye, the Giants face Tampa Bay, which allows the second-most fantasy points per game above average to opposing quarterbacks. In Week 15, they’ll take on the Ravens, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game above average to quarterbacks. 

Montgomery: He has some tasty matchups against the Saints and the Colts and is likely going to have his best opportunity to extend his prospects from teams. If he has a chance to be a long-term starter in the league it would be due to these matchups. The Saints are spiraling, and the Colts are in the midst of a potential cleaning-house situation. These are the best opportunities he has.  

Alexander: Lock theoretically gets Tampa Bay's league-worst pass defense in Week 12. It's scary plugging him in sight unseen, but he's a viable streamer in the best possible matchup. The same could be said for Week 15 in Baltimore. Only the Buccaneers have allowed more fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks than the Ravens. 

Wood: If Lock is going to have a few good weeks, they're going to come against defenses that have a weak pass rush. That makes Tampa Bay (Week 12) and Baltimore (Week 15) the weeks to circle. Both units are below-average across a range of key defensive metrics, including sack rate, hurry percentage, and pressure rate.  

Settle: For Lock to have any success, he will have to perform against Tampa Bay (week 12) and Baltimore (week 15). Both defenses have a weak pass rush and fall in the middle of the pack in overall pass defense. 

Waldman: Thanks for reading. As for my thoughts on Lock, I did an entire Buy-Sell-Hold on the Giants' offense earlier today. 

Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:

• Giants QB Lock's Potential
• Cowboys QB Lance's Potential
• Late-Week Replacement Picks
• Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels

Good luck!