Roundtable: Bo Nix vs. Jayden Daniels

Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels are delivering fantasy starter production in one-QB formats. What does the Footballguys staff think about their present and future value? 

Welcome to Week 11 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Giants QB Lock's Potential
• Cowboys QB Lance's Potential
• Late-Week Replacement Picks
• Rookie QBs: Nix vs. Daniels (see below)

Let's roll. 

Bo Nix vs. Jayden Daniels

Matt Waldman: Bo Nix is the No.6 option since Week 6 -- Jayden Daniels is 12th. During this span, Nix has 8 touchdowns to Daniels' 5. Nix's completion percentage is 65.4, and Daniels' is 60.3. Nix has also thrown for 90 more yards than Daniels and run for 7 more on only 2 more carries.   

Nix is the most productive rookie quarterback in the NFL since Week 6 and 9th overall among fantasy quarterbacks when including the entire season. Daniels has slipped to 6th overall -- in part due to a blowout against the Panthers where Daniels left the game early. 

Still, Nix compares favorably to Daniel in fantasy points and generosity of the opposition. In other words, his schedule hasn't been notably easier. In terms of generosity, the lower the number, the more generous the defense...

Nix vs. Daniels

*The Commanders routed the Panthers early and subbed Marcus Mariota for Daniels. 

This info is by no means definitive data on the subject, but it paints a clear picture that the strength of schedules isn't a narrative to define the difference between the two. 

With this info in mind, answer the following: 

• Who would you rather have for the rest of the season? 
• Do you see both developing into competent starters and top-15 fantasy producers? 
• Other than injury, what have you seen that could derail either player? 

Proceed...

Nix vs. Daniels: Rest of the season preference... 

Jason Wood: The disparity between Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels is even greater on a per-game basis from Week 6 through Week 10. According to our database, Daniels ranks as QB20 over that span, compared to Nix's QB12 ranking. Even when excluding the Week 7 game against the Panthers (as Matt noted), Nix still comfortably outscored Daniels during this period.

Daniels has faced two main issues lately: (1) his rushing attempts have dropped significantly from 11.4 attempts in the first five games to 6.3 attempts over the next four games (excluding the Cardinals game again), and (2) his hyper-efficiency from the start of the season has leveled out. He completed an unsustainable 82% of his passes in his first four starts, which has since dropped to 60%. 

In terms of whom I'd rather have over the rest of the season, I'll give the nod to Nix for several reasons. Here are the biggest two. 

1. I have more faith in Sean Payton's offensive adaptability than Kliff Kingsbury's. We can't discount that defenses have figured out Kingsbury's moves, and now he has to show he can counter, something that he couldn't do in Arizona with Kyler Murray.
2. The Broncos have a much more favorable fantasy schedule remaining. Denver has only one below-average matchup remaining (Cleveland, Week 13), whereas the Commanders have three tough matchups left. 

I didn't think I'd be favoring Nix heading into the season, but rookies are volatile -- especially at quarterback. 

Phil Alexander: Jayden Daniels is the pick for me because the upside is what delivers fantasy championships. While their average scoring is close, Daniels has shown he is likelier to earn 20, 25, or 30 fantasy points than Nix in any given week.

I might prefer Nix in his next two matchups (vs. ATL, @LV) over Daniels (@PHI, vs. DAL), but it's not like Washington's schedule down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs is prohibitive. The margin between these two is narrower than I first thought, but if I have Daniels, I'm sticking with the gal who brought me to the dance. 

Corey Spala: I would rather have Bo Nix for the remainder of the season. Denver has a favorable schedule for the remainder of the season compared to Washington.

Nix had a slow four-game start to the season, as he averaged 12.4 points per game and had four turnovers. Since then, he has averaged 20.4 points per game with two turnovers.

This is not to diminish Daniels and his success but rather to put his situation into perspective compared to Nix’s. Daniels had four rushing touchdowns through his first four games and has had zero since.  

Sean Settle: Bo Nix is the player I would prefer to have the rest of the season. The biggest reason why is the favorable schedule matchup for Denver vs. Washington. The only tough fantasy matchup left for the Broncos is Cleveland, while the Commanders face Philadelphia twice and a surprisingly good Tennessee defense.

Jayden Daniels has leveled off his hyper-efficiency from the first few weeks, when he completed 80%+ of passes, and has cut his rushing attempts nearly in half since sustaining his rib injury earlier this season. Neither starter has elite receivers surrounding them, but Nix has a more adaptable, offensive-minded coach and a better remaining schedule. It is a close race, but I would prefer to have Nix for the rest of the season. 

Matt Montgomery: For the rest of the season, I would rather have Jayden Daniels. The offense around him gives me a better feeling that it can remain consistent. Terry McLaurin looks like a completely different receiver with Daniels at the helm and has been a dynamic threat.

Zach Ertz has been a serviceable safety valve option underneath the coverage and the one-two punch of Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr in the running game gives the offense the ability to run a formidable play action. I also believe Daniels' rushing upside is vastly superior to that of Nix in the long term.  

Dan Hindery: For me, it’s Daniels by a mile. This season, Daniels is averaging 8.54 adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), while Nix is averaging 5.86 AYA. That’s a massive gap in productivity. For context, Daniel Jones has a career AYA of 6.14. While I know this is a fantasy discussion, the players' actual performance matters, and I’m far more convinced that Daniels is genuinely good at football. 

Matt Waldman: Just to irritate Bob Harris, Robert Griffin III's data looked eerily similar to Daniels' as a rookie -- down to an 8.59 AYA. To Jason's point, we haven't seen Kliff Kingsbury counter defenses effectively. 

Mike Shanahan told ownership during Griffin's rookie year that the production wasn't going to last because defenses would catch up, and he believed Griffin didn't have the sustainable skills to develop beyond what he was doing. 

Most in the media, draft circles, and the public believed Griffin could develop. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself or if Daniels transcends his offense, which is built on a lot of schemed-up plays that opponents eventually solve with enough scouting.