Out-of-Nowhere Starters: Footballguys Roundtable Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

Out of Nowhere feels like the origin of a handful of fantasy stars every year. Kyren Williams. Puka Nacua. Demarcus Robinson. Maybe the origin is L.A.! 

Welcome to Week 1 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Expecting Disaster
• Managing September
• Out-of-Nowhere Starters (see below)
• Navigating Preseason Minefields

Let's roll.

Out of Nowhere

Matt Waldman: Share with us two players whose FBG ADP is later than 220 (or nonexistent), and whose emergence due to a teammate's injury, suspension, or simply those players playing their way into extended opportunities wouldn't shock you. In other words, who could come out of nowhere and deliver fantasy success this year? 

Matt Montgomery: I know Zach Ertz may be viewed as the elder statesman of this franchise that is flush with young talent, but I believe Ertz will be a crucial part of Jayden Daniels's development in Washington. Old players are forgotten easily. In that sense, Ertz is coming out of nowhere to deliver fantasy value.

He was a reliable target to a variety of quarterbacks in his career and we have seen many a tight end have to pause their career because they simply cannot beat him out of the spot (Trey McBride was the most recent example).

Ertz can do everything a team wants from the tight end position which will get him the most playing time, and I believe he is the perfect safety net for a rookie quarterback who could pepper him with targets early and often.

It should be bigger news that Samaje Perine signed with the Chiefs this offseason. However, for the general public, it's going to feel like he came out of nowhere to contribute at a high level as a pass-catching specialist and short-yardage weapon. 

Perine joins an elite playing-caller in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II, arguably the game's best quarterback. Perine has proven capable with blitz pickup, route running, and short yardage. 

Players with these skills get opportunities to play. If he is on the field for the Chiefs, he has arguably the highest likelihood to get targets and catches/carries of the running backs on the team, especially considering teams have to respect the deep play ability of Xavier Worthy or the over-the-middle presence of Travis Kelce.

Jeff Bell: I'm sure it's just deep league dynasty brain, but this late, there are a lot of running backs who have an excellent opportunity to come out of nowhere and hold meaningful roles in their offenses.

Will Shipley, Samaje Perine, Carson Steele, Cam Akers, D'Onta Foreman, Miles Sanders, Trey Sermon, and Dylan Laube easily come to mind.

These are the types of players who find themselves in the top 20 of positional ranks in Week 9. We all want to be the ones to throw the dart and hit the next Puka Nacua, a young wide receiver who returns weekly starts seemingly out of nowhere. But over time, targeting these undervalued running backs who saw opportunity break their way throughout training camp will pay off with points in your lineup.  

Gary Davenport: Troy Franklin and yes, I'm cheating. Franklin's ADP was/is 220 exactly. Called for a measurement and got it by an index card. Marvin Mims is inconsistent. Josh Reynolds is a steady vet, but he's no world-beater and has missed three or more games in two of the last three seasons.

Just because Franklin didn't shine in his first offseason doesn't mean he can't come out of nowhere ADP-wise and perform. His built-in rapport with Bo Nix is going to pay off.

I also think edge defender YaYa Diaby will come from out of nowhere to contribute. Will Anderson gets all the run, but there were a few rookie edge-rushers who were quietly solid last year.

Diaby and his 7.5 sacks in just 515 snaps is one of them. With Shaquil Barrett gone, that snap count is going way up, and his growth in his second offseason has been notable. This second-year growth is a common dynamic with edge rushers.  Diaby's on a lot of waiver wires. He really shouldn't be.

Dan Hindery: Andrei Iosivas is poised to seemingly come out of nowhere as the Bengals' most intriguing new weapon, emerging as the WR3 behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He's an All-America heptathlete with excellent speed and he has developed a deeper understanding of the slot position, Iosivas consistently bested defenders in training camp and preseason. 

His blend of size (6-3, 205) and 4.43 speed makes him a unique inside-outside threat, drawing lofty comparisons to big-body slot legends like Keenan Allen and Larry Fitzgerald. With Joe Burrow already favoring him in first-team reps, expect Iosivas to play a significant role in the Bengals' offense this season. If either Chase or Higgins miss any time due to injury or contractual issues, Iosivas could emerge as a fantasy starter. 

When it comes to what I look for when targeting handcuff backs, Trey Sermon checks all of the boxes and his ADP suggests he could come out of nowhere to contribute at a high level.

Is he a talented player who could take an opportunity and run with it? Check. 

Is he in an offense that features the running back? Check.

We just saw Zack Moss put up huge numbers as a fill-in last season. Does the starter have an injury history? Check.

Across three college seasons and his first two years in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor had 1,610 touches. Unsurprisingly, given that workload, Taylor has had trouble staying healthy since then and has missed time each of the past two seasons. Sermon is the perfect final-round pick with a serious injury-related upside. 

Phil Alexander:  I agree with Dan on Iosivas coming out of nowhere. Iosivas might not need a teammate to disappear before he's ready to crack fantasy lineups.

The second-year wide receiver out of Princeton will reportedly soak up the majority of snaps alongside Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in 11 personnel groupings (three wide receivers) for the Bengals.

A 6'3", 205 lb. slot receiver with a 4.43-second, 40-Yard-Dash time catching passes from Joe Burrow while defenses try to contend with Chase and Higgins should interest us.

As I stated in our recent Bold Takes at Wide Receiver article, Iosivas also has plenty of outs that could make him a league winner - a Higgins trade, Higgins injury, Chase injury, and even an injury to a backup like Trent Irwin, which would make a rotation in the slot unlikely.

My money is where my mouth is on Iosivas. He is my highest-rostered player across over 100 Best Ball tournament lineups. 

Wide receivers drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft rarely come out of nowhere, but such is the case with John Metchie if something happens to Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, or Tank Dell this season. Since getting drafted inside the top 50 picks in 2022, Metchie has recovered from a torn ACL suffered at Alabama and a battle with Leukemia that cost him his entire rookie season.

It was fair to assume he would become an afterthought in Houston's stacked wide receiver room, but Noah Brown's surprising release makes him the next man up for the Texans. C.J. Stroud has been beating the drum for Metchie since before the start of OTAs.

"Metchie is looking amazing," Stroud said in April. "Everything that he will put on this field will be no surprise. Everybody in this room knows how special he can be, and he'll put that on the field." Metchie was a big-play machine with the Crimson Tide, and he's in the right offense to make a fantasy impact if a starting role opens up. 

Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics.

• Expecting Disaster
• Managing September
• Out-of-Nowhere Starters
• Navigating Preseason Minefields

Good luck!

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