Navigating Preseason Minefields: Roundtable Week 1

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Preseason is a minefield for fantasy GMs. Navigating it well can help you get a head start on your competition.

Welcome to Week 1 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Expecting Disaster
• Managing September
• Out-of-Nowhere Starters
• Navigating Preseason Minefields (see below)

Let's roll.

Preseason Minefields

Matt Waldman: Summertime buzz can create some preseason minefields. The reason is that the news cycle can sometimes run out of control. One story can feed into another and then into another. This can sometimes bury the true value of a player, sometimes too high and sometimes too low.

• Share two players you believe are rated too high based on their summertime buzz. 
• Share two players you believe are rated too low based on their summertime buzz. 

Go...

Preseason Stars Who Are Rated Too High

Phil Alexander: I'm a fan of Jameson Williams' game. Or at least I was in 2021 when he was at Alabama. Hearing that Williams has matured and put together a fantastic preseason inspires confidence he can recapture his collegiate form. We're only about two years removed from many analysts pegging Williams as the best wide receiver in a draft class that included Drake London, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson, so I won't blame anyone for buying the summertime hype. 

Unfortunately, we're in for a letdown for fantasy purposes. Williams might be a changed man mentally and physically and still disappoint on the stat sheet. Jared Goff's seven average intended air yards ranked 38th among quarterbacks in 2023. Williams' average target depth was 15.6 yards.

It makes perfect sense given Goff's short and intermediate accuracy and the fact that his primary targets - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs - excel in the same areas of the field. The Lions need a field stretcher to give those guys room to operate, a task that will again fall to Williams.

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson fielded a top-5 scoring offense last season, so we'll have to excuse him for taking an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach to his play-calling. Unless the Lions start manufacturing touches for a player who isn't plan A, B, or C in their offense, we shouldn't count on anything outside of a marginal improvement on last year's numbers for Williams.

Waldman: Phil, I think you made a strong point that Williams can, and likely will, have more value for his team than his fantasy teams. Who is your other preseason buzzworthy candidate in store for a letdown?

Alexander: Jalen McMillan had a strong preseason, in which he locked up a starting job as Tampa Bay's No. 3 receiver. He proved he is more than just a product of Washington University's outstanding passing scheme.

Be that as it may, he doesn't belong on your watch list in 12-team fantasy leagues. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin account for nearly half of the Buccaneers' targets in most seasons, leaving precious little opportunity for a third receiver to make a dent in the box score.

McMillan is also a natural slot receiver, though it appears Godwin will return to his primary slot role. If McMillan makes good on his buzz-worthy preseason, it will make a more significant real football difference for Tampa Bay's offense than a fantasy football difference for us. 

Waldman: I agree that Godwin is in for a strong season. I see McMillan as Baker Mayfield's Rashard Higgins of North Florida -- a fan favorite but not a fantasy favorite. 

Dan, who are your preseason false positives? 

Dan Hindery: The early buzz out of Cincinnati in OTAs was very positive for Jermaine Burton. His speed, hands, and ball tracking showed up on the field. Plus, he seemed to be a solid guy off the field. It felt like he was the heavy favorite to emerge as the starting slot receiver alongside Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

As time passed, there were more whispers about his immaturity off the field. He was not the same guy from one day to the next. He also failed to gain the trust of Joe Burrow by not running the correct routes far too often. When asked about Burton after a recent preseason game, Burrow noted that Burton “needs to stay in the playbook.” I predict Burton will end up being a healthy scratch in Week 1 and is on pace to have a redshirt rookie season.  

Waldman: Considering the highlight-worthy plays Burton made during the preseason and the draft buzz, Burton's fantasy value has remained in place in August despite these reports. That's likely a mistake. 

Meanwhile, Andrei Iosivas, who impressed last year as a developmental prospect, worked with Atlanta-based WR coach to the pros, Drew Lieberman, and by all accounts, has taken his route running up a notch. I have no doubt Burton has the skills to have wild success in the NFL, but he must develop the professionalism of an employee and not succumb to the idea that he's a star. 

Ideally, fantasy GMs should have flip-flopped Burton and Iosivas' ADPs. In reality, it just generated extra value for those who drafted Iosivas later. 

Nice to see you have a running back on your list. Who is it, Dan?

Hindery: The news out of Denver this preseason is that Javonte Williams slimmed down, regained the explosiveness lost from his 2022 knee injury, and is poised to live up to the immense potential that made him a second-round pick. I don't buy it.

While Williams may look better than last season and have a solid role in Denver, I believe this is a messy committee, and Williams will not sustain his summertime buzz. Denver's offense is starving for dynamic playmakers, and Jaleel McLaughlin fits the bill. Plus, Audric Estime could factor in as a short-yardage specialist. I am out on Williams anywhere near ADP. 

Waldman: Denver wants to emphasize a ground attack and have a prudent aerial attack that, in the immortal words of Hank Stram, matriculates the ball down the field. That's understandable with this defense, a mediocre and/or unproven receiving corps, and a rookie quarterback, but in the AFC West and today's NFL? I

In the preseason, sure. In the regular season, good luck. 

Denver may win some close games against bad teams if Bo Nix acclimates fast to the league and plays his style of football, but expect the Broncos to fall behind enough that the most valuable situational contributor from the backfield will be McLaughlin. If you're going to take a stab at a back from a three-headed committee on a team likely to play from behind, it's not the two-down option with the highest average draft position.

Gary, what up? What players are you sticking pins into their preseason? 

Gary Davenport: I'm dropping Rico Dowdle into this discussion. This isn't to say that Dowdle isn't the most “explosive” back on the Cowboys roster. It is to say that the Dallas running backs are a mess that one Dalvin Cook's corpse isn't going to fix.

Dowdle may well lead the team in carries. But if Ezekiel Elliott gets the goal-line and pass-pro work and Cook is ever active—just stay away from this backfield. It is a morass of despair. 

Waldman: As a longtime Rico Dowdle fan since his days as a high school phenom in Asheville, North Carolina, it hurts me to agree with you here. The best hope for Dowdle is that he performs well enough to shut the door on Elliott and Cook early in the season. 

Is it possible? Absolutely. Dowdle is a skilled receiver and a creative runner at his athletic peak. Is it probable? Nope. Dowdle's first season of good health since high school was last year and Elliott remains an elite pass protector and short-yardage runner. 

Dowdle is one of those preseason buzzworthy fantasy prospects who you can imagine getting dropped by early October after some low-volume efforts only to return to prominence by mid-November to help GMs win leagues. At best, he's going to be a frustrating option in re-draft. 

Hit me with an IDP candidate, Gary...Don't miss me!  

Davenport: I'm the Godfather of IDP. When the Rams flipped Ernest Jones IV to Tennessee, many fantasy managers took that as an indication that Omar Speights' lights-out play in preseason games had earned him a real role on defense.

Let's get real...Speights is an undrafted rookie—it's going to be a while before he sees meaningful snaps outside special teams, and the talk he might become the defensive signal-caller is proof that we need NFL games that count. We get twitchy without them. 

Waldman: What about Ivan Pace Jr, Gary? He was a preseason notable.

Davenport: If you recall, and I know you do as a Pace GM and advocate, Pace had a significant lull during his rookie season before delivering. 

Waldman: Good points. Jeff Bell, ready for our Thursday Night Live show (10 pm EST)? 

Jeff Bell: You know I'm down, Waldman. I'm also down on Greg Dortch. 

Waldman: Yeah, he's a waiver candidate, not a buy-now. 

Bell: Exactly. The idea of Dortch is fun. He is a 5'8” fighter who beat the odds as an undrafted player to earn his way as the starting slot for an NFL team. In reality, I do not see the path for fantasy relevance.

I believe the Cardinals' intentions to “establish the run” are underrated in their overall offensive view; meanwhile, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the types of ascending talents demanding target share.

I see intelligent people touting Dortch, but he feels more like a social media meme than a player who is hitting any lineups without an injury to a top option. He's a preseason tout who should remain in the preseason.

Waldman: I'll add, much to your Ohio State-loving chagrin, that Kyler Murray has only supported one top-12 fantasy option in the passing game during his three healthy years in the league and that player was the venerable DeAndre Hopkins, who could make Will Levis throwing with banana peels over his eyes and a mouthful of mayonnaise look good.

I'm not sure Murray can support his primary weapons to fantasy GMs' expectations, much less Dortch. 

Bell: You'll be glad to know I'm not that much of Buckeye Homer, Matt because you can add Curtis Samuel to this list of preseason guys we should slowly back away from. 

Samuel started camp hot and heavy, but he has missed multiple weeks with injury. I expect Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir to serve as Josh Allen's safety blankets in this made-over receiver room.

Dawson Knox and Mack Hollins will see ample snaps, but they are support players. Meanwhile, Keon Coleman is a mystery box with a head coach who has historically taken rookies very slowly.

Samuel's preseason buzz mentioned him lining up all over the field, but Joe Brady loves presnap motion and window dressing. Samuel feels like the type of player that people who love weird alignments will gush over, but that doesn't translate to fantasy success. 

Waldman: Curtis Samuel equals nagging injuries that keep him sidelined. That was his early-career rep. I was hoping this had passed. Matt, who are your preseason false positives?

Matt Montgomery:  J.K. Dobbins. How many times do we have to do this before we realize that he cannot withstand the physicality of the NFL?

Waldman: I can't quit him as insane as it might be. 

Montgomery: I am a believer in the modern miracles that medicine gives us, but at some point, we must look at the true “body” of work and understand what we are seeing. Before even being in the NFL, Dobbins had a Fibula Fracture in high school. Five years later he suffered his first NFL injury, the dreaded ACL tear.

Since then, in 2021 he suffered a torn Meniscus, torn LCL, and a torn Hamstring. Now, we are expecting a one-cut back to being able to effectively cut not just after the previously mentioned injuries, but after his latest (and most devastating) torn Achilles! 

I understand the Harbaugh philosophy here will be to ground and pound, but I do not believe Dobbins is the solution here. Would it shock any of us if he were to be banged up again?  

Waldman: I agree with all of this except for the body of work. He played four years at Ohio State with a good workload and no time missed. You can't expect readers to allow you to gloss over that point, even if your overall argument does a strong job of underscoring the substantial risks in recent years. 

Montgomery: The hype train in Cincinnati has made plenty of stops in the RB room. I can't seem to understand why we believe Zack Moss is the reason why. 

Moss has been an adequate runner in the seasons he has been given opportunities, but I think the real false positive is that he will outperform Chase Brown throughout the season. Moss is the current RB1, and Brown has the dreaded kick returner designation, but I feel this offense will lean on the skills Brown has in the long term and Moss will be a solid No.2.

Waldman: Well done, gents. now, let's go the opposite route with this preseason minefield topic.