The subscriber contest is an annual hit among Footballguy readers and staff. Although the staff can't win the contest, it's a weekly part of team discussion. Time to see how some of our panelists are faring.
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In (see below)
Let's roll.
Subscriber Contest Check-In
Matt Waldman: We're six weeks through the Footballguys Subscriber Contest. Let's discuss strategy and our progress.
- Is your team still alive? If so, are you optimistic about your chances during the next 3-5 weeks?
- What were 1-2 key decisions that have made a difference in the outcome of your team?
- What strategy would you have realistically taken if you could re-do your squad?
What do you have for us?
Who is still alive, and what's your level of optimism?
Jason Wood: My team is still alive after putting up 177.6 points, well above the cut line of 127.9 points. That said, I’m not optimistic about making a deep run due to some critical injuries and sleepers that aren’t panning out.
Losing Rashee Rice for the season and getting next to nothing from rookies like Blake Corum, Adonai Mitchell, or Ja'Lynn Polk is going to make things tough as I face the bye week gauntlet.
Dan Hindery: My team barely survived Week 6, but I’m optimistic about its chances of staying in the competition for a while longer. Injury luck plays a significant role in this contest, and I’ve been fortunate in that regard. While I’ve dealt with a few players missing games, I’ve been lucky to avoid any long-term injuries.
Andy Hicks: My team is still alive. I am pessimistic about surviving the next 3-5 weeks. During bye weeks, if one key player sucks, you get eliminated.
Waldman: I'm also still alive. I had my best week with 187.5 points despite a lackluster performance from my receiving corps of DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, and Andrei Iosivas.
It helped that Caleb Williams faced the Jaguars, and I had a strong performance from my backfield led by Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Tyler Allgeier, J.K. Dobbins, and Ray Davis. Brock Bowers has been excellent and Dalton Kincaid is coming on a bit, too.
That said, I might last another 2-3 weeks, but I'm concerned about my receiving corps. Shakir could see his value dip with Amari Cooper in Buffalo. Ladd McConkey has been good, but not to my lofty expectations.
Key decisions that have made a difference
Waldman: What were 1-2 key decisions you made/didn't make that have been the difference with the outcome of your team?
Hicks: I had great success in my running back group. I have J.K. Dobbins, Ray Davis and Kimani Vidal for $17. At Tight End, Isaiah Likely and the Packer pair of Musgrave and Kraft have also worked out well to date.
Waldman: I think tight end is one of the places where having multiple options at a low cost is the way to go because few tight ends post receiver-like yardage. This keeps the range between most playable options tight. The same is true with quarterbacks.
Hindery: I couldn't agree more, Matt. I carry three solid quarterbacks and tight ends. This is part of my annual focus on building as much depth as possible.
I also roster four inexpensive defenses and four budget-friendly kickers. This allows me to spend a big chunk of my overall budget on mid-priced wide receivers ($10 to $19). This year, I rostered six players in that range (Malik Nabers, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, and Jameson Williams).
In hindsight, not all of those players ended up being worth the price. However, the whole point of having six wide receivers of that caliber is that it allows you to make a bad selection or two and still have four or five wide receivers producing good numbers most weeks.
This approach has generally been successful, as it helps me withstand the inevitable injuries and navigate weeks where multiple players are on byes at the same time.
Waldman: I feel the same Dan. I go a little riskier on defenses and kickers--only carrying four entries total compared to your eight. This allowed me to roll with six receivers and seven running backs.
I wanted an extra back due to injuries at the position and still have enough bankroll to compensate for spending $26 on Derrick Henry, my highest-priced option. I seriously considered the mid-range price strategy, but I went closer to the spectrum of high-low.
My three tight ends cost $44 I have five running backs whose total cost is $39 and four receivers who total $42. I have 22 players on my roster and half of them cost $10 or less. I have four players that were priced at least $20 and seven priced between $11 and $19.
Only Henry cost more than $25. And that leads to my second strategic point: Seek as many potential volume players at QB, RB, WR, and TE.
I knew Henry would be a bell cow and that has been a difference. So have Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins, which has made my corps strong at the top. Arthur Smith likes big backs so I bet on Harris getting a bigger role than what we saw in recent years. Dobbins was a cheap player with a tremendous ceiling -- and let's be real, I wanted to have at least one team where I was invested in him.
Brock Bowers was a successful bet on his specific talents coming to the fore early in Las Vegas. It was likely he'd be one of the top two receiving options in the offense either sooner or once Davante Adams got his way back to Aaron Rodgers.
Although I was critical of DK Metcalf in this week's Top 10, he has delivered top-12 fantasy production in PPR formats. The Seahawks were building an offense to attempt to go point-for-point with its division rivals, and Ryan Grubb mentioned that Metcalf would get a lot of targets.
Seattle's defense is bad, so Geno Smith seemed like a good option based on the offense and game scripts.
DeVonta Smith and Khalil Shakir might not have been seen as primary options in their offenses, but they'd be high-volume WR2s. I hoped Andrei Iosivas might get there if the Bengals traded Tee Higgins. No dice.
But you get the point about volume and how I was seeking it. Even most of my reserve backs -- Blake Corum, Tyler Allgeier, and Ray Davis -- are in offenses where they could become bell cows if the top back got hurt.
Wood: So far, I’ve been carried by smart capital allocation at the quarterback and defensive positions. I believe you have to take a spread approach and avoid splurging on high-priced studs—it's the only hope of making it all the way.
At quarterback, I spent a total of $51 on four players: Caleb Williams, Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, and Sam Darnold. They’ve all been solid fantasy options, and having four QBs covers me against down weeks or bye issues. I took a similar approach with defenses, rostering four while only spending $19.
Waldman: It's a wise approach to have four passers. I went high risk with two -- Williams and Smith. That's my greatest weak spot.
Second thoughts on strategy?
Wood: I love the strategy I used and honestly wouldn’t change my overall approach. Where I should’ve been more disciplined: Picking bargains.
It’s tempting to load up on cheap rookies because of their lottery ticket upside, but their chances of busting are high. I have too many rookies on my roster (7) to realistically last into the later weeks.
Hindery: If I could do it again, I would have leaned even more heavily into the quantity-over-quality approach. I spent over $20 on three players: Joe Burrow, Josh Jacobs, and De'Von Achane. With both of my cheap quarterbacks (Geno Smith and Sam Darnold) putting up solid numbers, I did not need to pay up so much at QB1.
The money I spent on Jacobs and Achane would have been better spent by rostering three or four mid-priced running backs for the same total cap. I rostered five running backs this year and wish I had allocated cap differently to have six or seven options at the position.
Hicks: I invested poorly at wide receiver -- $83 at the position for nine guys, and only one or two are working out.
I like using the maximum number of players in this competition, 30, as it spreads the risk. It does stop you from investing in top-tier talent, but selecting Christian McCaffery would have been a disaster.
I would still stick with my 30-player roster strategy, but winning this means finding the studs with low value. Investing in top-tier talent at all positions usually does not work. It's high-risk, low-reward. Winning involves low-risk, high-reward options.
Waldman: I originally had Malik Nabers in my entry, but I chickened out and spent a little more on Metcalf. I already have five rookies on this 22-man roster. My greatest regret with a rookie was Xavier Worthy. I know better about Andy Reid's offense and rookie receivers. He cost $3 more than Shakir.
I could have used that $13 elsewhere. Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Daniel Jones may all prove better options.
Thanks for reading, check out the other topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Good luck!
