Derrick Henry, Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, and Lamar Jackson are delivering at the top of their positions in a big way. Not all of them are producing at a rate to break records as the title suggests, they are in a position to deliver dominant seasons.
The real question is who is most and least likely to maintain this torrid pace?
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers (see below)
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Let's roll.
Potential Record-Breakers
Matt Waldman: Consider these four scenarios for these fantasy stars on the path to dominant seasons.
- Derrick Henry rushing for 1,994 yards and 23 (rushing) scores?
- Malik Nabers earning 195 targets this year, which would tie him for eighth all-time for targets in a season with Reggie Wayne and within shouting distance of Marvin Harrison Sr. for the top mark at 205.
- Brock Bowers earning 235.7 fantasy points to top Mike Ditka's rookie mark of 235.6, something Sam LaPorta nearly achieved last year (note that Ditka did it in 14 games).
- Lamar Jackson earning 5,300 yards from scrimmage.
Which is the most likely to happen, and which is the least likely to happen?
Andy Hicks: Most likely: Derrick Henry earning 2,000 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown numbers are least likely but still within reach. The yardage numbers are slightly easier but still almost impossible.
Henry broke 2,000 yards in a 16-game season in 2020. He is 40 yards ahead of the same stage in that season, with an extra game this year. One low-yardage game and the dream dies.
Two missed games for Malik Nabers likely make it impossible to make up the pace required for record-setting target numbers. Add the concussion concerns, and this option will disappear in another week or two. Even if his target numbers bounce back immediately, the Giants passing offense isn't good enough to perform week in and week out to the level required.
As mentioned, Malik Nabers likely implodes on the expectations set out here. His rookie season will still be a massive success story, even if it stops right now.
Derrick Henry is the player to ride or die with here. Henry and Kamara are so far in front of the third-ranked back this year that they could miss two games and still be ranked one and two. Henry is more likely to sustain that for an entire season. The Ravens are perfectly built for his style of play, and the presence of Lamar Jackson keeps any rushing defense honest.
Sam Wagman: Nabers is currently on pace for 182 targets in 14 games, an average of 13 per game. He's become a truly integral part of the Giants' offense, and I believe they'll continue to throw the ball to him every single week that he's healthy. If he returns this week, I view this as most likely.
I cannot see Brock Bowers besting Ditka's mark, but not through any fault of his own. Rather, it's on the shoulders of the offensive coordinator and quarterback he is playing with and their inability to give him enough high-value touches to get to this mark. With Davante Adams now gone, there simply isn't enough talent to get Bowers the best looks.
I love all four players and could easily interchange any of them as a ride-or-die. I'd have to sell Henry, given that due to the Ravens' uncharacteristically poor defense, he can get gamescripted out of games more than most. I know Henry historically gets better as the season progresses, but if his production is somewhat predicated on things he can't control, he's an obvious sell to me.
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