Roundtable: NFL Storylines to Follow

Developments in Week 3 could help us make useful management calls for our fantasy squads. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. struggled to connect in Week 1 against a good Bills defense that used a mix of coverages and had coverage discipline from its personnel. In Week 2, Murray and Harrison lit up a lackluster Rams zone coverage early.

Week 3 might help us gain greater clarity about the Cardinals' passing game. It might not be enough to determine a long-term answer, but it gives another layer of data to formulate a worthwhile short-term plan. It could also give us a better understanding of what information we'll need for a long-term plan.

Welcome to Week 3 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• New Starting Quarterbacks
• NFL Storylines to Follow (see below)
• Analyzing the Rams Passing Game
• Analyzing the Chiefs Backfield

Let's roll.

NFL Storylines to Follow

Matt Waldman: Name a storyline from Weeks 1-2 that you're following closely that involves at least one fantasy player. How might Week 3 confirm or change your perspective? Tell us how you'll manage either scenario.

Jeff Bell: Josh Allen. Is he an elite fantasy quarterback or a caretaker? Allen came through in Week 1 on the strength of two rushing touchdowns to finish as the QB1 on the week. That masked lower passing volume and lower yardage totals.

He drew the Dolphins in Week 2, a team he has traditionally owned, especially for fantasy purposes. Complimentary football, a breakout game from James Cook, and a defense that dominated the night mitigated his need to put on the Superman cape for the Bills and our fantasy squads. The game was over when Tua Tagovailoa's scary injury happened, and both teams looked ready to go home afterward.  

With the departure of Stefon Diggs and multiple defensive leaders, many were prepared for Allen to put the team on his back and give us his usual elite fantasy performance. Hat tip to our Jason Wood, who led the charge for muted numbers for Allen, given the apparent lack of talent around him. I'm not sure any of us expected the Bills' defense not to miss a beat or even improve without all-pro performers like Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Matt Milano. 

The front office and coaching staff have been vocal about creating a situation that does not require Allen to do it alone. The run rate increased dramatically when Joe Brady took over at the end of 2023. A back-and-forth shootout with Philadelphia and a higher pace in other games helped mask the ratio switch.

The win over Dallas in Week 15 was a statement. Allen attempted just 15 passes, and the Bills pounded the Cowboys on the ground. As much as the Bills have been chasing the Chiefs for the last decade, a loss to the Bengals in the 2022 playoffs rattled them. Since that game, the franchise has dedicated itself to building a more physical team, adding Dalton Kincaid to open up 12 personnel. Flipping out lighter interior linemen for a mauler like O'Cyrus Torrence and replacing Diggs with a 6'4”, 215 lbs Keon Coleman. 

The result is a team capable of beating opponents into submission. 

The Bills host a desperate 0-2 Jaguars team on Monday night. After that is a meaty run against the Ravens and Texans, wrapping up at the Jets, a defense that has flustered Allen before. But outside of games against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions, the Bills can potentially whip the rest of the schedule physically.

If their performance through two weeks is an indication, they will play the type of complimentary football that actually will take stress off Allen. Given his ADP, that will badly hurt the fantasy teams who made that lofty investment. 

Phil Alexander: Is Malik Nabers a fantasy WR1? 

Waldman: Yes. End of story. Goodbye, everyone...

Alexander: Right on cue. Specifically, is there a quarterback in the Giants' employ who can support Nabers as a No. 1 fantasy wide receiver?

Daniel Jones was putrid against a slightly above-average Vikings defense in Week 1, completing 52% of his passes for 186 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a pathetic 2.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt.

The result for Nabers was a pedestrian 7-5-66-0 receiving line - fine for a rookie in his first NFL game, but far from what we were hoping for from a player who was routinely drafted inside the top 25 overall picks by the end of the summer.

In Week 2, Jones was less bad. He threw two touchdowns against zero interceptions, averaged a much healthier 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt, and was only sacked once compared to five times in Week 1.

Jones peppered Nabers relentlessly (a 67% target share!), and the rookie responded with an 18-10-127-1 receiving performance, making him the WR3 for the week in half-PPR scoring. Of course, the breakout came against a Washington team that fields the worst defense in the NFL.

Jones' next test comes on the road in Cleveland, where the Giants visit as six-point underdogs. Outside of Myles Garrett, the Browns' defense has plenty to prove, but they're much closer in quality to the Vikings than the Commanders.

If Jones' Week 2 performance proves solely matchup-based, Nabers' best chance at living up to his ADP moving forward is a switch to Drew Lock at quarterback, which shouldn't inspire much confidence.

I want to stay the course with Nabers. He is a star in the making, and rookies tend to improve as the season progresses. But it's fair to wonder if his ceiling is capped outside the juiciest matchups. If Nabers comes down to earth against the Browns, you might want to put out feelers to see what your shiny new toy can fetch on the trade market before Week 2 fades too far into the distance.