Roundtable: Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players

Derrick Henry was considered "washed up" at this point last year -- or on his way to that cliff by year's end -- because the public conflated bad offensive line play with a perceived loss of athletic ability with Henry's game. It made Henry a good example of a "dented can," in dynasty leagues who could be had at a discount. 

Welcome to Week 5 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Running Back Rank'em
• Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players (see below)
• What to Do with the Dolphins WRs?
• Waiver-Wire Strategy

Let's roll.

Dented Can Dynasty Values

Matt Waldman: Adam Harstad introduced the term Dented Can on our Film and Theory podcast last year. It's a player who the market perceives as lost value that may never gain or return to form but has an above-average chance of proving the market wrong.

Last year, Derrick Henry, who was considered "washed up" or soon to be that way because the public conflated bad line play with potential loss of athletic ability was a good example of a dented can where you got him at a discount. 

Name some dented can values for our audience. 

Corey Spala: Cooper Kupp is expected to miss his third straight game due to his ankle injury. Additionally, he will turn 32 in June 2025. The perceived notion of being injury-prone and hitting an age cliff will offer value in 2025 leagues.

I previously did a study and found we should not worry about an ‘elite’ wide receiver declining until age 35.80, so long as they do not retire or have a season-ending injury. Kupp is under contract through the 2026 season. 

George Kittle will be turning 32 in under one week. Travis Kelce and his perceived decline may linger throughout the 2025 offseason regarding Kittle. It is feasible your league mates may not want the hassle of investing a top pick into a potential declining tight end.

I have an unreleased article derived from the above wide receiver study for tight ends. I found the age to be concerned is 33.5; with 73% of the sample having their decline after age 33 and 55% after age 34. I believe Kittle has the motivation and ambition to continue competing with San Francisco. Kittle is under contract through the 2025 season. 

Dan Hindery: I avoided drafting Travis Kelce this offseason due to concerns about age-related decline and increased target competition. It seemed likely that the Chiefs would limit his snaps during the regular season to keep him fresh for a deep playoff run.

With the addition of talented receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, plus expectations of a second-year leap from Rashee Rice, the situation looked crowded. However, with Brown out for the season and Rice also at risk of missing the remainder of the year, Kelce now stands as one of the top tight-end options moving forward. 

T.J. Hockenson has largely been overlooked since starting the season on the PUP list, but he’s a player worth targeting for several reasons. First, the tight-end position has been a fantasy wasteland this season.

Only two tight ends—George Kittle and Dallas Goedert—average more than 11 fantasy points per game. In the past seven seasons, we’ve never seen fewer than seven tight ends reach that mark by this point in the year. This decline in production is unprecedented.

Second, the concerns that Sam Darnold would limit the fantasy upside of the Vikings' offense have been proven unfounded. Darnold currently leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and the Vikings' passing attack looks like one of the league's best.