The NFL running back position may be devalued relative to yesteryear. One of the least discussed reasons for the devaluation is a talent glut. Fantasy GMs should consistently assess developments at the position.
Welcome to Week 4 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Backup Running Backs of Value (see below)
- Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition
- Offensive Line Liabilities
- Defenses to Exploit
Let's roll.
Backup Running Backs of Value
Matt Waldman: Consider this list of RBs:
- Braelon Allen, NY Jets
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay
- Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay
- Justice Hill, Baltimore
Who has the best dynasty future? Who has the most potential as a league winner if the starter gets hurt? Who do you wish was bumped from this list and who would you substitute in his place?
Jeff Haseley: Bucky Irving has youth on his side and has the most direct path to being the top rushing option on the Buccaneers. Rachaad White has tailed off, while Irving has been outstanding in his touches. I can see Todd Bowles and Liam Coen giving increased looks to Irving, especially if Irving finds the end zone and continues his strong level of play.
The Jets have their version of thunder and lightning, similar to what the Giants had with Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs. If Breece Hall is forced to miss multiple games, Braelon Allen could be an instant fantasy win, based on how he has played. If the situation presents itself, he is big enough to be a workhorse type of back.
Once Jonathon Brooks (knee) returns from the PUP list, Carolina will face the challenge of managing two capable running backs -- Chuba Hubbard and Brooks. It is anticipated that Brooks will start seeing regular playing time from Week 6, 7, or 8 onward. The offensive line has performed well this season, and with Andy Dalton at the helm, there is a strong possibility that the ground game could flourish in the second half of the season.
Bump Justice Hill from this list.
Jeff Bell: Braelon Allen and Bucky Irving are separate from Emanuel Wilson and Justice Hill. You can call it the mystery box intrigue if you want.
I lean toward Irving for the best future. The primary reason is Allen spending the next four years as a best-case 1B to Breece Hall. Irving could take over as the lead back in Tampa as soon as now and give starting fantasy production.
Even with that delayed start, Allen's age is very intriguing. He projects to hit free agency at 24 and could easily have a Priest Holmes-type second act outside Hall's shadow.
Allen gets the nod as the league winner just ahead of Emanuel Wilson simply because he has a higher ceiling as a player and doesn't have MarShawn Lloyd potentially jumping in with a down week or two.
The Jets offense has produced a difference-making fantasy back with Zach Wilson playing quarterback; Allen, in an Aaron Rodgers offense with only nominal competition from Isaiah Davis or Israel Abanikanda, should be a locked-in weekly fantasy RB1.
Justice Hill is one of the few players who are a better NFL running back than a fantasy football running back. He is a strong receiver and a smart player adept at blitz recognition and pickup. However, Keaton Mitchell is on the mend, and I believe Hill is limited in his role.
I will play the homer card here and say bump Hill for Ray Davis. Ty Johnson would still get some reps, but if James Cook is out of the lineup, Davis lands in the center of one of the best offenses in football. Davis has delivered when given the opportunity. He will be a difference-making fantasy player if the situation opens up.
Gary Davenport: Irving likely has the most long-term value—Allen has the misfortune of being behind a top-five running back on the depth chart. Irving is behind, well, Rachaad White—and with each coming week, he's seemingly less behind him. Irving could be the “lead” back in Tampa by Halloween, although it's likely going to be a committee.
Allen is an easy pick as the lottery ticket—he's shown lead-back explosiveness and real talent when afforded opportunities this season with the New York Jets. If Breece Hall were to go down, Allen could be one of those late-season adds to lineups that swing a lot of leagues.
Chuba Hubbard is a capable running back coming off an excellent game for the Carolina Panthers. But Jonathon Brooks probably would have been a first-round pick had he not torn his ACL last year at Texas. At some point, Brooks is going to be healthy enough to play. Once he is, look out. Bump Hill from the list.
Jason Wood: The best fantasy future belongs to Bucky Irving. If you've watched any Buccaneers games this year, you can see that Irving is significantly better than incumbent Rachaad White as a ball carrier. While White has experience in the system, is a good receiver, and is an adequate pass blocker, Irving isn't far behind in any of those areas. White was the least efficient fantasy-relevant player last year, and assets like that tend to fall apart quickly—much like meme stocks.
The most likely league winner is Braelon Allen. Regardless of opinions about Allen coming out of college, no one expected a full-blown committee this season with Breece Hall. Yet, that's what we've seen so far, despite Hall looking great as a dynamic young centerpiece. Allen, the youngest player in the NFL at 20, is already showcasing a versatile skill set, not to mention gaining Aaron Rodgers' trust in key situations. If Hall gets injured, Allen becomes a matchup-proof, must-start player.
I'm genuinely perplexed as to why Justice Hill is on this list. He's 26 years old, has never been more than a part-time player, even when the Ravens had major injury-driven needs at the position, and is currently playing a part-time receiving role on a team that doesn't throw much. He's currently the No. 36 running back in PPR rankings, which should be his best scoring format, and he's barely a flex option even in favorable matchups.
Waldman: You gave the answer you wanted while explaining why you were perplexed--his current ranking. These players were chosen based on current rankings. These are the types of players some GMs ask us about.
Wood: Fair enough, I'd happily swap him out for Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet currently ranks as the No. 10 running back, thanks to Ken Walker III missing the last two games. His two starts pro-rate to 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 20+ touchdowns, which would make him a league winner under any circumstances.
Sam Wagman: Irving should have the best dynasty future here. Todd Bowles gave him a glowing recommendation saying that he's earned more work, so we could see Irving having standalone value even without an injury to Rachaad White. There is a scenario where he is the starting running back for the Buccaneers by the end of the season.
Allen could have the best fantasy situation if Breece Hall were to go down with an injury. We have seen him play very solidly so far this season in short spurts, and he does carry a three-down skillset after catching almost 30 balls in his final season at Wisconsin.
Hill contributes plenty via the pass-catching game, but Emmanuel Wilson should be bumped from this list. He's only on here with AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd injured, so I don't see him having a ton of long-term value.
I would put Chuba Hubbard in his place as well. I've always thought Hubbard was a terrific low-risk dynasty asset, carrying a three-down toolbox but not having the high name value some of the other backs have, especially with Jonathon Brooks in town now.
Andy Hicks: A clean sweep here by the looks of it. This would be Bucky Irving at the moment. Rachaad White has an awful career yards per carry and this year it has gotten even worse. 2.1 yards a carry on 31 rushing attempts. Irving has 154 yards on his 25 carries. If Irving keeps up that pace, he will keep the job this year and beyond.
Another consensus pick is Braelon Allen. Breece Hall is an established elite back, so Allen will only get opportunities when Hall needs a breather. Despite being the youngest player in the league, Allen looks like a starter if given the chance.
Justice Hill just seems an outlier from this list. He has been in the league for six years. Replacing him, I would have Ray Davis, whose 19 carries give us a good sample size so far. James Cook has been elite to date. As a smaller back, his usage will be carefully managed, and a competent backup is required. Ty Johnson will be preferred to Davis as a receiving back, but Davis is a hammer in need of a workload. He has room for development, and should Cook go down, Davis looks like a great option.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Backup Running Backs of Value
- Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition
- Offensive Line Liabilities
- Defenses to Exploit
Good luck!
