The 5 Riskiest Dynasty Quarterbacks

Photo: Imagn Images

Managing a dynasty roster requires navigating the ever-changing landscape of player values. Identifying and evaluating risky assets is crucial for making informed decisions. Knowing when to invest in or divest from these assets can be the most challenging part of the format. Balancing risk and reward is essential for long-term success in dynasty leagues. As my fellow Footballguy Adam Harstad pointed out, dynasty is a game of pricing risks. Understanding how to price risks and when to move either towards those assets or away from them is where you will fail as a manager or succeed.

Recognizing the varying levels of risk associated with dynasty assets is also crucial. Factors such as age, injuries, scheme changes, perceived value drops, production declines, and increased competition contribute to a player's overall risk profile. In the upcoming article series for Footballguys, I'll explore the specific risks associated with each position and provide strategies for effectively managing these risks in dynasty leagues.

Navigating risks in the quarterback position is crucial in Superflex leagues. Factors like injuries, aging veterans, and the lack of young breakout stars add complexity and risk to dynasty quarterback evaluations. Success in these leagues often hinges on effectively managing these risks and making informed decisions to build a competitive roster. Let's examine five quarterbacks who are a risk heading into the 2024 offseason.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

• Dynasty Superflex ADP: 9.24 QB8
• KTC Ranking: QB9
• Footballguys Ranking: QB7
• Buy/Sell/Hold: Buy

Overview

Richardson may be one of dynasty's biggest boom-or-bust assets this offseason. He showed an elite ceiling in his limited starts in 2023. In his debut, Richardson scored 21.9 fantasy points, coming in at QB4 overall for the week, and in week four, he scored 29..6 fantasy points, coming in at QB2 overall. Those starts showed what his ceiling could be: a top-five quarterback each week in fantasy. Richardson's rushing ability was well known, but he did demonstrate that he may be a better passer than initially thought when he was drafted out of Florida. The other positive for Richardson is that he plays for Shane Steichen. Steichen turned Jalen Hurts from a below-average passer to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He improved Hurt's yards per attempt, adjusted air yards per attempt, and true completion percentage in the two seasons he was there and vaulted Hurts into a tier 1 dynasty asset. If Richardson stays healthy, it's safe to assume Steichen can do the same for Richardson's value.

The Risk

It starts and ends with his injury history and lack of experience. When he was drafted, he had only started 13 times in college. Since the 2008 draft, seven quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round with fewer than 20 collegiate starts. Those seven were:

• Trey Lance - 17 starts
• Mac Jones - 17 starts
• Kyler Murray - 18 starts
• Dwayne Haskins - 14 starts
• Mitch Trubisky - 13 starts
• Ryan Tannehill - 19 starts
• Mark Sanchez - 16 starts

Of all seven, Kyler Murray is the only one who has overcome the lack of experience and become a viable QB1 in fantasy. Like Murray, Richardson possesses elite athleticism and is a rushing threat, which eases the concern. With the injury ending Richardson's season last year after just four games, there should be concern whether that lack of playing time will hinder his development as a quarterback.

Bottom Line

Richardson is an elite athlete on a tailor-made offense and a team willing to build around him. The Colts have not been shy about their desire to build around Richardson this offseason and made it a priority to re-sign their WR1 Michael Pittman Jr to a new three-year extension. There is also a possibility that they will add more weapons in the draft and possibly with their first-round pick. If they do that, we could be looking at the possibility that Richardson's potential range of outcomes is QB1 overall in fantasy. While he has risk, his talent and upside are worth his current dynasty price.

Dynasty Trades (12 Team SF/TE Premium)

• Anthony Richardson for Kirk Cousins/1.03
• Anthony Richardson for De'Von Achane/Baker Mayfield/2.04
• Anthony Richardson/2025 1st for Joe Burrow
• Anthony Richardson/2.01 for Lamar Jackson/2.10
• Anthony Richardson/2025 2nd for Justin Herbert

Will Levis, Tennessee

• Dynasty Superflex ADP:95.50 QB28
• KTC Ranking: QB23
• Footballguys Ranking: QB25
• Buy/Sell/Hold: Hold/Sell

Overview

Levis had an up-and-down rookie season in 2023. He completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Looking at the raw numbers, most of his production came from two games. His first start was against the Falcons, where he threw for four touchdowns, and against the Dolphins, where he had a career-high 327 yards. In those two games, he finished as QB6 and QB15 overall. However, outside those two games, the Titans offense struggled to find an identity, and the Levis did not win another game under center.

Fast forward to this offseason, and there's renewed hope for the former second-rounder. The Titans are under new leadership, having hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their head coach. With Callahan as the coordinator, the Bengals' offense ranked seventh in points per game (26.1), eighth in yards per game (360.5), and fifth in passing yards per game (265). Callahan's offensive strategy will shift towards a more pass-focused scheme, departing from the Titans' historically run-heavy offenses. His work with backup quarterback Jake Browning this season should be seen as a positive for Levis' development. The Titans have also been aggressive in free agency, adding receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry, and guard Saahdiq Charles. They are doing everything they can to build around the second-year quarterback.

The Risk

Callahan, being the new head coach, is a positive for Levis. The question will remain about how committed they are to the 2nd round pick. They will not have control over a 5th round option due to his draft capital, and this is essentially a one-year audition for him. If he struggles this season, this coaching staff could look to bring in their guy moving forward, and Levis would be looking for a new place to play as soon as the 2025 season. The Titans' offensive weapons look good on paper, but DeAndre Hopkins will be 32 years old next season and will struggle to stay healthy. Calvin Ridley has looked like a shell of himself since leaving the Falcons and being suspended for a year due to gambling issues. Treylon Burks has disappointed since being drafted, and Chigozlem Okonkwo needs to live up to his potential. The Titan's offensive line was one of the worst units in football last season, giving up the third most sacks in the league with 64. While their free-agent additions have been promising, there is still much uncertainty about the position. They have the 7th overall pick, which they could use on a receiver or offensive tackle. But both positions need help, and they only have so many draft picks.

Bottom Line

Levis is one of those dynasty assets that will be price-dependent based on your league's market. If he's cheap enough, he's not a bad player to buy if you are desperate for a QB2 on a contender. If you are not a contender and can get a price that is better than what you invested in him last season, I believe you should move him and re-roll at the position. It truly comes down to market value in your league settings. I would wait to see how they handle the 1.07 pick, and if they add an elite offensive tackle or wide receiver, you could get more value out of him after the draft. You have to move him if there is any chance of you attaining a future first-round pick.

Dynasty Trades (12 Team SF/TE Premium)

• Will Levis for 2.01
• Will Levis for Curtis Samuel
• Will Levis for Aaron Rodgers/Chigoziem Okonkwo/Jahan Dotson
• Will Levis/Deebo Samuel/2024 3rd for Puka Nacua
• Will Levis/1.05/3.05 for Joe Burrow