This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR Mike Evans (TB vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
There are several things at play in this matchup. Evans is looking to extend his streak of 1,000-yard seasons, has several statistical bonus incentives, and Tampa Bay is fighting for the division title. Horn has been asked to shadow in the past this season and it has not gone well. He is currently allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted just 19% of the time. He is prone to giving up the big play and Evans has the history of making them. Start Evans with confidence this week, given that so many factors are going his way.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs ATL) vs A.J. Terrell Jr.
McLaurin is coming off a great game against a tough Philadelphia secondary. This week it should be much easier against Terrell and the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, 20 touchdowns, and a completion rate of 70%. The Commanders have not officially clinched a playoff spot but could do so with a win this week. Terrell is currently allowing 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. McLaurin has been Jayden Daniels' favorite target in the red zone. Upgrade the Washington passing attack this week against a poor Atlanta secondary.
WR Green Bay receivers (GB vs MIN) vs Minnesota secondary
There is no one matchup that is that much better than the rest for this game. Minnesota has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers due to the high volume they have faced all season. Minnesota has led on 56% of their offensive snaps and teams have had to throw the ball to get back into the game. During their matchup earlier this season, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft combined for over 200 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs is healthy this time and we should expect Green Bay to put the ball in the air as much as humanly possible.
WR Tyreek Hill (MIA vs CLE) vs Martin Emerson Jr
Miami has struggled with consistency this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, they get a great matchup against a Cleveland secondary that has underperformed in almost every metric this year. Emerson was a great cover corner last season but has fallen off this year. He is currently allowing 0.38 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. Hill has a touchdown in 5 of his last 7 games but has surpassed 100 receiving yards just twice this season. The matchup is there for Hill to finish the season strong.
WR Jordan Addison (MIN vs GB) vs Keisean Nixon
Addison has stepped up in a big way for the Vikings down the stretch. He is within striking distance of his first 1,000-yard and 10-touchdown season. As teams key in on Justin Jefferson, Addison has made the best of the single coverage on the other side. In their last meeting, Addison finished with 3 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. Jaire Alexander is expected to cover Jefferson as much as possible leaving Addison free to run around the secondary and get open for Sam Darnold. Upgrade Addison in this important NFC North battle.
WR Brian Thomas Jr.. (JAX vs TEN) vs Chidobe Awuzie
Thomas Jr. reached 1,000 yards receiving last week and has quietly been the best rookie receiver in this class. He has thrived with Mac Jones under center and is averaging double-digit targets over the past 3 games. He should see a lot of Awuzie in coverage this week. The young corner is not playing as well as he did in Cincinnati, and he is currently allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage snap. He is being targeted 17% of the time. Neither team has much to play for this week, but Thomas Jr. is looking to put a stamp on his electric rookie season.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA vs CLE)
Cleveland is not the easiest matchup for opposing tight ends, but Smith is playing entirely too well to ignore. He is averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game over the past 6 weeks and has been the most consistent option not named Brock Bowers. Even in a down game, Smith had 12.2 fantasy points last week. Fire up Smith again this week and ride the double-digit average he has provided for the last month and a half.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs MIA)
Njoku continues to provide consistent production no matter who is under center for Cleveland. Njoku would rank higher if Jameis Winston were back under center but still provided a clear safety net for Dorian Thompson-Robison. He is facing a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed the 6th most catches and the 11th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Start Njoku with confidence this week as he should provide another top-10 finish at the position.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Drake London (ATL vs WAS) vs Marshon Lattimore
This matchup will largely be decided by the health of Lattimore. He did leave last week with an injury and if he is unable to go this week, Benjamin St-Juste will resume his starting role. However, if Lattimore is able to play, he should be given the advantage against London and rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr.. Lattimore is currently allowing 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and has been targeted 12% of the time. Lattimore has been a huge boost for Washington since being traded from the Saints. Downgrade Atlanta’s receiver group this week against Washington.
WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Chase has shown that he is more or less matchup-proof, but he is going up against one of the toughest matchups in the league this week. Surtain has been asked to cover some of the best receivers in the league and the numbers have been outstanding. He is currently allowing 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 12% of the time. The saving grace for Chase this week will be that Surtain rarely travels to the slot (roughly 5%) and Chase lines up there 35% of the time. Jerry Jeudy showed damage can be done against Denver in the slot. Chase should be downgraded slightly this week. Keep him in your lineups, but do not expect an overall WR1 performance against Denver.
WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
Even if it were a better matchup, Johnston is likely on your bench this week after his string of disappointing games. The young receiver has struggled to get open and with drops over the past several weeks. If that is not enough, he is projected to get the shadow treatment from Gonzalez this week. The young corner is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Gonzalez has stepped up down the stretch and is playing very good football. Expect Justin Herbert to target Ladd McConkey in the slot this week over Johnston and his tough matchup against Gonzalez.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs PHI) vs Cooper DeJean
Philadelphia had an uncharacteristically bad game against Washington last week and slipped to the 8th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. That does not change their body of work this season as they are allowing the 3rd fewest to the perimeter and the 8th fewest to the slot. The last time these teams met in week 10, Dallas only managed 66 total receiving yards with Lamb managing 6 catches for 21 yards. DeJean is currently allowing 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Lamb will still be starting for most but should be downgraded in a tough matchup against the Eagles this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET vs SF) vs Demmodore Lenoir
San Francisco has underperformed all over the place this season, but the secondary is not one of those places. They are currently allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers including the 3rd fewest to the slot. Lenoir is currently allowing 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Teams are not afraid to target the slot, they just have not had much success this year. The 49ers are only really playing for pride at this point, but the receiver group for Detroit can be downgraded in a tough matchup this week.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs ARZ) vs Garrett Williams
Kupp has eclipsed 24 yards just once in the past 4 weeks and has taken a full back seat to Puka Nacua in this offense. The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention, but the Rams are playing for a division title and playoff berth. However, Willimas has been great in the slot so far this year. He is currently allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. He has been the biggest strength in this secondary and will be a tough matchup for Kupp. It is hard to trust Kupp after his recent track record with many Championship finals happening this week. Downgrade Kupp in this tough matchup.
TE Jake Ferguson (DAL vs PHI)
Since returning from a concussion, Ferguson has not played well. He does not seem to connect with quarterback Cooper Rush and is averaging just 5.4 fantasy points per game. His floor seems to be around 5 points and a ceiling of 10. He cannot be trusted with the fantasy championship on the line. Philadelphia has also allowed the 2nd fewest yards and the 4th fewest fantasy points overall to tight ends. Avoid any pass catchers for Dallas this week in a tough matchup against the Eagles.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs ARZ)
Higbee made his return from tearing his ACL last season and it did not go well. He ran just 6 routes and saw 2 targets against the Jets last week. Now he will take on an Arizona secondary that has allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends on a short week. Expect the Rams to ramp Higbee up slowly as they look for a playoff push. This is not the week to start a player returning from injury and in an offense that has so many other weapons.
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