Receivers with Good and Bad Matchups: Week 7

This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchup:

WR Diontae Johnson (CAR vs WAS) vs Benjamin St-Juste

St-Juste has shadowed in exactly half of the Commanders’ games this season and the results have been very mixed. He struggled against Marvin Harrison Jr.. and Mike Evans so far and is not a lock to shadow Johnson. However, the matchup is good for the passing attack of Carolina no matter who is lined up outside. Washington has allowed the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing outside receivers over the past 4 weeks. St-Juste is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 26% of the time. Johnson has played well with Andy Dalton under center and is in line for a big game this week.

WR Tyler Boyd (TEN vs BUF) vs Taron Johnson

Tennessee has not been a major passing threat so far this season, and Buffalo has been a mostly solid secondary. However, Johnson is filling in at the slot corner position and has not played well at all. He is currently allowing 1.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and has been targeted 24% of the time. Boyd has not been a major factor early this season, but he has a great matchup that Will Levis should look to exploit this week. Even if Tennessee is in a negative game script in the 2^nd half, there should still be plenty of targets for Boyd against Johnson.

WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks

Brown came back with a big game last week and has a solid matchup despite a shadow situation from Banks. The young corner has been asked to shadow the likes of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, and DK Metcalf and has allowed an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game. The Giants’ defense has kept them in games this year and made offenses continue to throw the ball despite the mounting losses. Banks is currently allowing 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Opposing teams are not afraid to target Banks and Brown should be a big boost to this offense going forward.

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn

The Washington offense has developed quick chemistry over the first half of the season, with McLaurin being one of the biggest beneficiaries. Jayden Daniels has made McLaurin a favorite target and they are walking into a great matchup. Horn has allowed 0.57 fantasy points per coverage snap and has been targeted 24% of the time. Carolina has allowed 9 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season (tied for 3^rd) and has allowed the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past 4 weeks.

WR Mike Evans (TB vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens

Baltimore has an elite stable of corners, on paper, but that has not translated to play on the field. Baltimore has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season (1^st overall) and 5 different receivers have reached 20 fantasy points. Stephens is currently allowing 0.36 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Marlon Humphrey should do a good job slowing down Chris Godwin in the slot this week, but Evans will have free rein on the outside.

WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs ARZ) vs Starling Thomas V

The Chargers have not found a consistent attack through the air so far this season, but Johnston continues to be the best option through the air. He is walking into a prime matchup against Thomas and the Arizona secondary. Starling is currently allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage snap despite only being targeted 17% of the time. He is prone to giving up the big play and Johnston has the speed to break away. Look for a big game from Johnston on the outside to complement the Chargers’ rushing attack this week.

TE Brock Bowers (LV vs LAR)

Browers currently leads all tight ends with 46 targets and should see another increase with the trade of Davante Adams. Browers has scored at least 16 fantasy points in half of his career games and has seen elite volume all season. The Rams are currently allowing the 2^nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and are a great matchup to target. Bowers is worth the high price this week.

TE Evan Engram (JAX vs NE)

Engram returned with a vengeance last week registering 10 targets and 102 yards. Those numbers are impossible to ignore at the thin tight end position. The Jacksonville offense has been tough to predict so far this season, but Engram is a great safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence. New England ranks in the middle of the pack against tight ends but will be coming off the plane after the long trip to London. Jacksonville stayed overseas and should be better rested overall. Start Engram in what could be a top-5 tight-end finish.

Unfavorable Matchup:

WR George Pickens (PIT vs NYJ) vs D.J. Reed

The elite play from the Jets’ secondary has continued this season in route to allowing the 4^th fewest fantasy points overall to opposing receivers and the fewest to the perimeter. Pickens has played well to start the season but should be considered a FLEX option against one of the top corner duos in the league. Reed is currently allowing 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 21% of the time. He has been solid tackling without many yards after the catch and has shut down several elite perimeter receivers. Downgrade Pickens and the Pittsburgh offense this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs IND) vs Samuel Womack III

Miami has not been the same offense since Tua Tagovailoa left with an injury, and Waddle has suffered more than anyone else. The Colts’ secondary has been middle of the pack this season, but Womack has played well on the outside. He is currently allowing just 0.08 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 11% of the time. He has been one of the lone bright spots in the secondary and should make things difficult for Waddle again this week. Downgrade the Miami offense until they can get the quarterback position figured out.

WR Michael Pittman Jr. (IND vs MIA) vs Jalen Ramsey

Miami has struggled on offense this season, but the defense has played well. Through their Bye week, Miami has allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 7^th fewest to perimeter receivers. Ramsey has shadowed DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley so far this season and is not guaranteed to follow Pittman. However, it is a tough assignment for all Colts’ receivers this week. Ramsey is being targeted just 16% of the time and is allowing less than 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap. Downgrade the Colts’ receivers this week.

WR Jakobi Meyers (LV vs LAR) vs Darious Williams

The sudden trade of Davante Adams has opened things up for Meyers and the Raiders’ offense. However, the struggled at the quarterback position and the tough matchup will make things difficult this week. Williams is currently allowing 0.11 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. He has not been highly tested this season but has performed well in a small sample size. The offensive struggles paired with the tough matchup makes Meyers and the rest of the Raiders’ offense tough to start this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs KC) vs Jaylen Watson

The start for San Francisco this season has been very difficult. Aiyuk got a late start and was not a prominent feature in the offense. This week that trend may continue with a tough matchup against Kansas City. Watson has played well on the boundary and is currently allowing 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. With Deebo Samuel Sr. playing well and the offense prone to spreading the ball around, Aiyuk can be downgraded this week.

WR Tank Dell (HOU vs GB) vs Jaire Alexander

Alexander has not been the elite cover corner he was in the past, but he is still playing extremely well. Green Bay has excelled on defense and is limiting opposing receivers to under 15 fantasy points per game. Dell saw a big boost with Nico Collins out with injury, but the tough matchup this week should downgrade the young receiver. Alexander is currently allowing 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense is going to score their points, but caution paying up for Dell this week in a tough matchup against Alexander.

TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs DET)

The Minnesota offense has not needed a big offensive boost early this season, but Hockenson has a chance to be activated this week. With that said, err on the side of caution and take a wait and see approach with the big tight end. Hockenson is attempting to return from a major knee injury in week 16 last season. There is no information on what his usage may be and it is worth waiting another few weeks to see what he will do.

TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs GB)

This could be one of the higher scoring games of the week, but we should not trust Schultz. He has not surpassed 35 yards or 8 fantasy points in any game this season. Even with Nico Collins out with injury, Schultz has not stepped up to fill the target void. Green Bay has not been particularly tough on tight ends, but Schultz has not shown anything on the field that makes him worth starting at this point.