Receivers with Good and Bad Matchups: Week 12

This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR Mike Evans (TB vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks

Evans is expected back this week after an extended absence due to a knee injury and he is walking into a great matchup against a struggling Giants' defense. Baker Mayfield has played like an MVP without his weapons and will also get a boost this week with Evans' return. Banks has been asked to shadow some of the top receivers in the game and has allowed an average of 16.2 fantasy points per game. He has been benched due to poor play once already this season and teams have not been afraid to target him (21% of his coverage snaps). Look for Evans to return with a boom this week and do not be afraid to fire him up as a WR1 this week.

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs DAL) vs DaRon Bland

Bland is expected back from injury this week and should be viewed by many as a boost for the Dallas defense. However, a lot has changed since the last time he stepped on the field and this team is currently spiraling. McLaurin has played well against Dallas historically with 37 catches, 479 yards, and 3 touchdowns across his career. McLaurin averages 8 targets per game against Dallas and has played extremely well with Jayden Daniels this season. Bland will have his hands full in his first game back against McLaurin and a Washington offense that has exceeded all expectations so far this season.

WR Jauan Jennings (SF vs GB) vs Javon Bullard

Jennings exploded last week with 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. He was the only reliable target for Brock Purdy with George Kittle missing the game due to injury. Kittle is expected back this week, but that does not change the great matchups for Jennings against Bullard in the slot. Bullard is currently allowing 0.49 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 25% of the time. He is the weakest link in the Green Bay secondary, and we should expect San Francisco to attack this spot early and often. The return of Kittle will take away some targets, but overall, Jennings should see a big bump in production this week.

WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs TB) vs Josh Hayes

This will be a telling week for Nabers' overall talent. He is walking into a great matchup against Hayes on the outside. Hayes is currently allowing 0.54 fantasy points per coverage snap, is being targeted 26% of the time, and is playing in a secondary that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. This would be one of the top matchups of the week if Nabers did not have Tommy DeVito throwing the ball this week. Daniel Jones was benched this week in favor of DeVito. Nabers should still be the focal point of the offense, but there is no predicting how DeVito will play this week. Nabers is an extremely talented wide receiver with a great matchup this week. Play him with confidence as volume alone should more than make up for the bad quarterback play.

WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens

Even after holding the Steelers receiver group to under 20 points last week, Baltimore has still allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Johnston and Justin Herbert are starting to find their stride and have helped balance this offense. Stephens currently allows 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted just 17% of the time. He is prone to giving up the big play and or touchdowns. Expect Johnston to break free on at least one big play this week in what has become one of the best matchups to watch this weekend.

WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC vs CAR) vs Mike Jackson

After suffering their first loss of the season, the Chiefs' receiving group is walking into one of the most favorable matchups in the league against Carolina. The Panthers rank in the bottom 5 of almost every defensive category, and Hopkins gets one of the best matchups of the group. Jackson is currently allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. Hopkins gets an even bigger boost on the 28% of snaps he lines up in the slot against Dane Jackson and the 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap he gives up. The Chiefs have enough weapons to spread the ball around, but Hopkins has the best chance of any other receiver for a big game this week.

TE Cade Otton (TB vs NYG)

Otton had a down week before the Bye with 8.5 points scored. However, he was averaging 19.3 points and 9.8 targets in the four games before that. An 8.5-point performance is a very safe floor for a tight end, especially when there are six teams on a Bye this week. The return of Mike Evans may cut into his overall number of targets, but it should also draw some of the coverage away from Otton in the red zone. He is a must-start at this point in just about any format.

TE Hunter Henry (NE vs MIA)

Since Drake Maye took over, Henry has been his favorite target and it is not close. Henry has a 26% share of first-read attempts from Maye (6th amongst all tight ends) and is averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game since the rookie took over. Pair that with Miami allowing the 4th most yards to opposing tight ends over the past 5 weeks and we have a recipe for a great game. Start Henry with confidence this week with double-digit scoring potential.