This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens
Baltimore may be an offensive juggernaut, but their defense is currently allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 3rd most to the perimeter. After a slow start, Chase has rebounded into the top receiver he is and will have a great matchup against Stephens on the outside. The Baltimore corner allows 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 16% of the time. Seven different receivers have hit the 20-fantasy point mark against this defense, and Chase has a good chance of being in the 8th. Look for both Joe Burrow and Chase to have a big game this week.
WR Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX vs MIN) vs Shaq Griffin
Minnesota has a great defense by real-life NFL standards, but they currently allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Those numbers have a lot to do with the volume faced but still leave a great matchup for Thomas on the outside. Eight different receivers have scored 17 or more fantasy points against this secondary, with Griffin being one of the weaker links. He currently allows 0.27 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. Minnesota plays a high rate of zone defense and allows a lot of yards and catches to opposing receivers. Look for Thomas to lead this receiver group with a big game this week.
WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF vs TB) vs Josh Hayes
There are a lot of different storylines this week for this game, but none of them change the matchup Samuel has on the outside against Hayes. The young corner is coming off a game where he was picked on by DeAndre Hopkins and allowed 2 touchdowns. He is allowing 0.64 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. San Francisco is coming off their bye week needing to get on a role if they want to keep up in their division. Look for Samuel to be targeted early and often in a very favorable matchup this week.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG vs CAR) vs Dane Jackson
The return of Malik Nabers and Daniel Jones' inefficiency have combined to decrease Robinson's production in recent weeks. However, that could all change with a great matchup against Carolina this week. Jackson is currently allowing 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. He has been thrust into starting duty after a rash of injuries hit this secondary and has not performed well. Look for the Giants to push the ball down the field and target Robinson in the slot early and often.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt
Flowers lines up all over the field, and that will work to his benefit this week. He can be downgraded on his nearly 30% of snaps in the slot due to a tough matchup against Mike Hilton, but the other 70% of the time on the perimeter will more than make up for it. Taylor-Britt is currently allowing 0.42 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. The only thing truly working against Flowers is the crowded offense with a lot of mouths to feed both passing and rushing the ball. Lamar Jackson has done a great job spreading the love in this offense, and Flowers is coming off a game with 2 touchdowns. Look for the hot streak to continue against a division rival this week for Flowers in particular.
WR Tank Dell (TB vs DET) vs Carlton Davis III
Detroit has faced the most pass attempts as a defense this season and, in turn, has allowed the 3rd most yards and catches. The offense is constantly playing ahead and has led the defense to play the pass more and more. This volume bodes well for Dell and the rest of the Houston receivers. Davis is currently allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Detroit is winning games despite allowing a lot of fantasy points to opposing receivers. Look for Dell to have another good game before the potential return of Nico Collins.
TE Jake Ferguson (DAL vs PHI)
Philadelphia has been a tough defense against tight ends so far this year, but a lot is working for Ferguson this week. Four teams are on a bye this week, Ferguson was a safety blanket for Cooper Rush when Dak Prescott was hurt, and CeeDee Lamb is dealing with an injury. This week, Ferguson is a volume-based option and could see double-digit targets against the Eagles.
TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs JAX)
Hockenson is doing everything right after coming back from injury. He may have had only 5.7 points last week against the Colts, but he did play 33 snaps and should only see that number increase. The Jaguars have also been vulnerable to the tight end, with five beating them for 11+ points, including allowing 16+ to the position in the past four weeks. If you have been holding on to Hockenson this long, it may finally pay off.
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