Reading the Defense: Week 15

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Reading the Tea Leaves

The preseason version of this column, Reading the New Defense offers analysis of how defensive scheme changes could affect players' statistical output and fantasy values. Recent editions of Reading the Defense have provided players rising or falling in value as the season progresses.

The work of Reading the New Defense for 2025 can begin now, as three teams have fired their coaches, and at least one more seems certain to follow. Anticipating scheme-induced changes in value provides gamers opportunities to strengthen their rosters now or over the winter. Unrestricted free agency and the NFL draft will wreak havoc on fantasy rosters next spring.

Dynasty gamers must focus roster construction on durable assets. Quality pass rushers usually find work and success regardless of front-office tumult and sideline turmoil. Pro Football Focus's top three graded pass rushers are Aidan Hutchinson, T.J. Watt, and Myles Garrett – three fantasy cornerstones. Two of 2023's DE1s, Danielle Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkel, changed teams this year. Each has continued to produce.

Some of the league's lowest-graded linebackers are now in expanded roles, like Jahlani Tavai, Kyzir White, and E.J. Speed, who played rotationally for much of their careers. Their current utility to fantasy gamers belies their impermanence.

Two of last year's top three fantasy linebackers entered new situations in 2024. The immortal Bobby Wagner has hardly slowed down, but Foyesade Oluokun has been knocked clear off his perch as the perennial top linebacker in a new defensive scheme.

New York Jets

The Jets fired fourth-year head coach Robert Saleh in Week 6. His defense has been fertile ground for fantasy linebackers during his tenure. However, defensive backs and defensive ends have only occasionally delivered for fantasy gamers. Several of the Jets' 2024 starters appear in Week 12's edition with 2025 outlooks considered. Scheme and deployment are subject to change under a new defensive coordinator. Star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will likely produce regardless of coach.

New Orleans Saints

After many years of continuity, New Orleans fired Dennis Allen in Week 10. Previously the defensive coordinator, Allen took over head coaching duties in 2022 after Sean Payton's voluntary departure.

As Week 13's edition explained, Allen's defense suppressed tackle efficiency at linebacker. A change might allow Pete Werner to prove more useful to fantasy gamers in 2025.

Defensive ends and cornerbacks seemed to take on the tackle opportunities denied to linebackers in Allen's man coverages. Next summer, inexperienced drafters are likely to chase previous seasons' points in the person of Paulson Adebo.

Chicago Bears

The Bears fired head coach Matt Eberflus the day after Thanksgiving in the middle of Week 13. He cycled through coordinators on both sides of the ball. Game management in Detroit seemed to finish Eberflus.

Last week's Reading the Defense noted Eberflus's frequent use of zone coverages and the commensurate wealth of tackling IDPs available to fantasy gamers. Chicago likely won't bring back all of Kevin Byard III, Tremaine Edmunds, and T.J. Edwards for 2025.  

Dallas Cowboys

Unlike the three previous teams, the Cowboys have not fired coaches. They must be thinking about it, given how much less success they've enjoyed this year than last.

Mike Zimmer replaced Dan Quinn, who coordinated one of the league's most successful defenses for three seasons. After Quinn departed for Washington's head job last spring, Dallas hired Zimmer to sustain results in 2024. Instead, the Cowboys have allowed the second most points in the NFL (Panthers). Run defense was considered Quinn's weakness, but Zimmer's Cowboys have the NFL's worst run defense by one measure.

Multiple contributors from 2023 regressed. Safety Donovan Wilson maintained fantasy relevance, but his on-field performance declined. Former starting linebacker Damone Clark was phased out. Defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa looked pedestrian after making a leap in 2023.

To be fair, injuries to Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland hurt the unit. Zimmer's response was to blitz and blitz some more. Meanwhile, no team disguised coverages at a lower rate. The Cowboys were exposed by Ja'Marr Chase last Monday night.

Question for Mike Zimmer. They played Ja'Marr the same way all night long. Off coverage, nearly ten yards off LOS and he torched you for 13 catches, 146 yards (before this play).

Why on Earth were there no adjustments made? He single handedly killed your defense. https://t.co/BLXgR1sXwK

— Damien Bartonek (@tvBartonek) December 10, 2024

Zimmer stuck with one on one coverage until the bitter end pic.twitter.com/Y0WCvIbxxA

— mike (@bengals_sans) December 10, 2024

The Cowboys' defense will lose a lot of talent this spring to expiring contracts, including stalwart veteran Demarcus Lawrence. The unit's one bright spot, DeMarvion Overshown, suffered a catastrophic knee injury Monday that might keep him out until 2026.

The franchise must rebuild the unit around Parsons, Bland, and Trevon Diggs. These three constitute a great start; however, Zimmer's last two veteran defenses, the 2024 Cowboys and 2022 Vikings, have been bad despite quality players like Parsons and Diggs and, in Minnesota, Danielle Hunter and Harrison Smith. The Cowboys should be hesitant to retool with young players under 68-year-old Zimmer's tutelage.

Cowboys Edge Defenders

Micah Parsons has been a bust for fantasy gamers. A consensus top-5 DE, Parsons ranks just 39th on the Footballguys leaderboard at the position with 6.5 sacks. He's the same player with an elite pass-rush win rate. He's just not getting home as often in 2024.

Former Cowboy Stephon Gilmore criticized Zimmer for not moving Parsons around more. A quarterback with good pocket awareness, like Joe Burrow, can evade Parsons even when he owns the offensive tackle opposite him.

Sam Williams and Marshawn Kneeland will join Parsons in the edge rotation next season. Gamers should not worry overly about Parsons. Elite talents remain good investments. Revision of approach and infusion of additional talent along the defensive line is needed to help Parsons reach his ceiling again.

Cowboys Linebackers

Mike Zimmer brought his long-time Minnesota defensive captain, Eric Kendricks, with him to Dallas. Prior to Zimmer's call, Kendricks had committed to filling in for Dre Greenlaw in San Francisco. Kendricks's opportunities may be similarly limited next spring if Zimmer departs Dallas.

To fantasy gamers, Dallas linebackers were of marginal value under Dan Quinn. That changed dramatically this season. Damone Clark and Marist Liufau will likely have competition for roles next summer. Schematically, the position might find a middle ground in productivity between Quinn (one top-50 LB in 2023) and Zimmer (two top-20 LBs in 2024).

Cowboys Defensive Backs

The aforementioned Donovan Wilson has shown a predilection for blitzing and attacking the line of scrimmage. Big plays fuel his fantasy relevance despite his 6-foot-0, 200-pound frame. Wilson might be better suited to a part-time role in a more conservative defense that relies on two-high shells.

After Parsons, Dallas's most impactful IDPs have been cornerbacks. Trevon Diggs led the NFL in interceptions in 2021. Bland took over that crown in 2023, returning five for touchdowns. Each player's big total resulted from a near-perfect storm of Dan Quinn's defense: a vigorous pass rush led by Micah Parsons, a mentality to attack the ball – and risk big offensive plays against, and complex looks at every level of the defense to create confusion. Neither cornerback can be expected to repeat their heroics under Zimmer or another coordinator.

Thanks for Reading!

As the 2024 NFL season winds down, more franchises will conclude that their outlooks will improve under new leadership. This past offseason, half of the league changed defensive coordinators. A third changed schemes. Reading the Defense will return next Friday with a review of players undergoing change as their employers look ahead to 2025.

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.