Reading the Defense: Week 14

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players’ fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Reading the Tea Leaves

The preseason version of this column, Reading the New Defense offers analysis of how defensive scheme changes could affect players’ statistical output and fantasy values. Recent editions of Reading the Defense have provided players rising or falling in value as the season progresses.

The work of Reading the New Defense for 2025 can begin now, as three teams have fired their coaches, and at least one more seems certain to follow. Anticipating scheme-induced changes in value provides gamers opportunities to strengthen their rosters now or over the winter. Unrestricted free agency and the NFL draft will wreak havoc on fantasy rosters next spring.

Dynasty gamers must focus roster construction on durable assets. Quality pass rushers usually find work and success regardless of front-office tumult and sideline turmoil. Pro Football Focus’s top three graded pass rushers are Aidan Hutchinson, T.J. Watt, and Myles Garrett – three fantasy cornerstones. Two of 2023’s DE1s, Danielle Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkel, changed teams this year. Each has continued to produce.

Some of the league’s lowest-graded linebackers are now in expanded roles like Jahlani Tavai, Kyzir White, and E.J. Speed, who played rotationally for much of their careers. Their current utility to fantasy gamers belies their impermanence.

Two of last year’s top three fantasy linebackers entered new situations in 2024. The immortal Bobby Wagner has hardly slowed down, but Foyesade Oluokun has been knocked clear off his perch as the perennial top linebacker in a new defensive scheme.

New York Jets

The Jets fired fourth-year head coach Robert Saleh in Week 6. His defense has been fertile ground for fantasy linebackers during his tenure. Defensive backs and defensive ends, however, have only occasionally delivered for fantasy gamers. Several of the Jets’ 2024 starters appear in Week 12's edition with 2025 outlooks considered. Scheme and deployment are subject to change under a new defensive coordinator. Star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will likely produce regardless of coach.

New Orleans Saints

After many years of continuity, New Orleans fired Dennis Allen in Week 10. Previously the defensive coordinator, Allen took over head coaching duties in 2022 after Sean Payton’s voluntary departure.

Allen’s defense suppressed tackle efficiency at linebacker. A change might allow Pete Werner to prove more useful to fantasy gamers in 2025.

Defensive ends and cornerbacks seemed to take on the tackle opportunities denied to linebackers in Allen’s man coverages. Next summer, inexperienced drafters are likely to chase previous seasons’ points in the person of Paulson Adebo.