Reading the Defense: Week 11

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

The IDP Trade Market

Numerous resources exist to assist fantasy gamers with trading offense players in dynasty leagues. Footballguys alone has rankings, a value chart, and a trade calculator. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase constitute the top tier of dynasty assets. Rookie receivers chosen on Day 1 of the NFL draft who have yet to emerge rank anywhere from 69 and 108. Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey have flashed and elevated their rankings into the top 50 players on Footballguys' dynasty board.

If one were to assume a linear relationship between these assets in value. One might trade Jefferson for the duo of McConkey and Thomas or a trio of Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall. The trade value chart, however, indicates that Jefferson's value is five times greater than that of Pearsall, who's barely played, or Coleman, who's now hurt.

IDP gamers en masse haven't figured out that the value curve is not unique to offense. Perhaps a lack of trading resources for defenders is a factor. Roquan Smith is the top fantasy linebacker according to Footballguys' IDP dynasty ranks. He parallels Justin Jefferson. Week 8's NFC Defensive Player of the Week, Edgerrin Cooper, is the Brian Thomas Jr. of this comparison. Like Keon Coleman, Junior Colson had the prime draft-day landing spot but couldn't capitalize in Year 1.

IDP gamers are too quick to deal a player like Roquan Smith for Junior Colson and a second-round pick in a future rookie draft. If Edgerrin Cooper went off the board in the early second round of a league's 2024 rookie draft, then Smith is solidly worth a first-round pick. Finding a trade partner for Smith – or any IDP – at that value will be difficult. Holding him will be the safest path to maintaining future roster value just as an offer of Coleman and Pearsall for Jefferson would amount to an immediate rejection without comment.

Trade Targets

Last week's edition of Reading the Defense offered players that dynasty and contract leaguers looking to 2025 should deal away. In the difficult IDP trade market, gamers should pay all the way up or all the way down. If gamers looking to 2025 are offering Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, T.J. Watt, and Brian Burns at deep discounts, as hypothesized above, contenders should pounce. Absent premium options, gamers should seek sneaky values. The options that follow are both recommended redraft and dynasty targets.

Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati

Any of several top edge defenders could be targeted in trade. IDP gamers struggle to adjust to the decrease in scarcity brought about by true-position designation. With little fanfare in a modest city, Trey Hendrickson has joined the elite tier of pass rushers by elevating his game in 2024. Ranking second in pass-rush win rate this year, he is bound to add to his 11.0 quarterback sacks in Weeks 15 and 16 versus the Titans and Browns. His Bengals face the league's most favorable remaining schedule for fantasy edge defenders, according to Footballguys' Strength-of-Schedule tool.

Here are all 4 sacks and 6 pressures from Trey Hendrickson from yesterday pic.twitter.com/iWb7OL2dRg

— mike (@bengals_sans) November 4, 2024