Reading the Defense: Week 10

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that contemplates the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players’ fantasy value. As analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Asset Management

Readers who play in contract-style leagues will readily recognize this greatest market inefficiency of fantasy football. A bottom-dwelling roster includes a productive veteran pass rusher on an expiring, expensive contract. The bottom-dweller posts the player on his trade bait and peddles him among contenders. He finds one interested contender, who offers a low rookie draft pick. The bottom-dweller rejects the offer because it fell short of his expectations. The veteran pass rusher’s fantasy contract expires at the end of the season and falls off the bottom-dweller’s roster. The bottom-dweller ultimately loses the veteran without recouping any value.

NFL franchises recognize this reality. Numerous players with expensive contracts and expiring deals have moved ahead of the league’s trade deadline last Tuesday. Fantasy trade deadlines begin in many leagues this week. Dynasty and contract-league gamers are wise to follow real life’s lead.

The closest comp to the hypothetical above is Brandon Graham. The Eagles’ veteran defensive end has announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Graham is likely only of use to gamers in 32-team leagues. The uncompetitive manager rostering Graham should deal him to contending managers of Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett while they sit for the Week-10 bye. The return the Graham manager receives will be set by the Crosby or Garrett manager. The Graham manager should be thankful for any return at all.

Several players who factor into leagues of typical sizes face uncertain futures. Dynasty and contract-league fantasy gamers looking to 2025 are wise to move off of these veterans before their utility to contenders—i.e., their fantasy values—declines precipitously.

Lavonte David, Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers’ long-time captain and linebacker advised that he considered retiring after last season. The team’s outperformance of expectations encouraged him to return. Tampa Bay won the NFC South and beat the Eagles, who manhandled them in the regular season, to advance in the playoffs.

The 2024 Buccaneers dropped to 4-5 after foolishly foregoing a two-point conversion attempt with 33 seconds to play in Kansas City. The overtime loss puts them 2.5 games behind the division-leading Falcons, who swept Tampa Bay this season.

Eric Kendricks, Dallas

Long-time Vikings captain Eric Kendricks reunited with his former coach Mike Zimmer in Dallas this season. Kendricks had intended to play in San Francisco as a temporary replacement for Dre Greenlaw, but Zimmer’s appointment as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator presented a better opportunity.

Zimmer’s second stint in this role has been a disaster. Kendricks will be 33 next year and could struggle to find another full-time role.