Reading the Defense: Week 9

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that contemplates the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

High-Profile Benchings in the News

The completion of Week 9 marks the midseason of the 2024 regular NFL season. Fantasy gamers and NFL general managers are reaching conclusions about their seasons' trajectories. Teams' flagging commitments to highly drafted quarterbacks are among the season's biggest stories.

As usual, similar stories from the opposite side of the line of scrimmage have received a fraction of the ink. The Jaguars drafted linebacker Devin Lloyd with the 27th pick of the 2022 NFL draft. Jacksonville opened the season by platooning their linebackers under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Lloyd played full-time from Weeks 5 to 7 due to an injury to Foyesade Oluokun.

Lloyd squandered his opportunity to earn coaches' trust and regain the full-time role handed to him as a rookie. Head coach Doug Pederson minced no words informing the press that Lloyd would lose time to 2023 4th-round pick Ventrell Miller, who's now playing his first NFL season.

Packers' beat writers are watching for, if not clamoring for, a similar situation to unfold in Green Bay. Linebacker Quay Walker, chosen just five picks before Lloyd, is among several players struggling to adjust to new coordinator Jeff Hafley's defense. Edgerrin Cooper, one of two linebackers the Packers selected on Day 2 of the 2024 draft, is the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week.

No team has drafted an off-ball linebacker in the first half of Round 1 in the past five years. (An asterisk for Micah Parsons is in order here.) That's unlikely to change based on recent results. The Commanders benched Jamin Davis in his third season last year.

Jack Campbell seemed destined to take command of the Lions' defense in this, his second season. He's just beginning to play full-time. His development remains on an upward path; however, the Lions are unlikely to move the green dot from Alex Anzalone as they position themselves for a serious playoff run.

Tremendous fit from Lions LB Jack Campbell. He's starting to put it all together for this defense. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/DDFmpJPXsn

— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) October 22, 2024

Green Dots to Watch

A preseason edition of this column warned readers off of the Jaguars' linebackers. No one has ever accused Foyesade Oluokun, the top-scoring fantasy linebacker of the past three years, of being the game's best player at his position. He's never even been nominated for a Pro Bowl.

Lloyd and Walker were each slow to develop through two seasons. They have not met the urgency to improve for new coordinators in 2024. Walker has nearly doubled his missed-tackle rate to 8.8 percent. Both players are allowing career-high passer ratings against them. Gamers should move off of them for safer assets.

All may not be lost in dynasty formats. Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray Jr. enjoyed positive fourth seasons in 2023, but neither has lived up to his first-round draft status.

C.J. Mosley is allowing an incrementally higher passer rating to opposing quarterbacks year over year. He, like the Jets' defense he's led for several years, has been less effective in 2024. Mosley reportedly suffered a neck injury in pregame warm-ups last Sunday and remains out Thursday as he visits a spine specialist.

Mosley's return to play for the 3-6 Jets would be surprising. The team is evaluating fourth-year linebacker Jamien Sherwood, a college safety, before his rookie deal expires. Mosley's contract will be difficult to discard even as the 32-year-old enters the final year of a recent restructuring, but the Jets have shown a propensity for rash moves.

Demario Davis's PFF grade has fallen off a cliff in 2024. Big plays had always fueled Davis's fantasy value in the Saints' man-heavy defense. Through seven games, Davis has forced no turnovers and has made no tackles for loss or quarterback sacks.

New Orleans signed his running mate, Pete Werner to a 3-year $22.5 million extension over the summer, possibly as Davis' heir-apparent. The two-win Saints must also wish to see what they have in Willie Gay Jr, whom they signed for $3 million as an unrestricted free agent.

Davis is safely under contract for 2025 but will be 36 before this season ends. The locker room and community role model could see his role reduced like his teammate, defensive end Cameron Jordan.

For his 100th consecutive start with the Saints, @demario__davis celebrated by giving back. The now 2x #CommunityMVP replaced every bed at Covenant House in New Orleans, which annually helps 700 at-risk youth overcome homeless and human trafficking.

?: https://t.co/59t69agye2 pic.twitter.com/dABUtnjQ9c

— NFLPA (@NFLPA) October 25, 2024

Lessons to Learn

"Volume is king," they say. Volume is also 20/20 hindsight. Players' fortunes change quickly with those of their teams'. More veteran linebackers' roles will be imperiled as coaches of floundering teams seek to save their jobs and GMs peak ahead to 2025. Finally, players must play well to earn playing time. Coaches like Doug Pederson "want your best 11 on the field, whatever that looks like."

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.