Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports tackle rates per snap for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they align in “the box” – where linebackers typically line up.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Anthony Weaver, the Ravens' defensive line coach under Mike Macdonald, will succeed Fangio as the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator. A former defensive end, Weaver will lean on his pass rushers, including the team’s current first-round pick, Chop Robinson, to make plays in Miami while his secondary plays more conservatively. The second installation of the series covers Miami.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
Denard Wilson, another of Macdonald’s position coaches, will coordinate the Titans’ defense in 2024. The Titans sought out cornerbacks with plus size and the demonstrated ability to play press-man coverage in free agency. Wilson, the former defensive back, will emphasize interior pressure and seek to deny outside receivers the football.
Wilson coached just one season in Baltimore, arriving from Philadelphia where he was not only the defensive backs coach but also the passing game coordinator. He has contributed to the NFL’s top defense in consecutive seasons in two different cities. Both units used multiple fronts, frequently deployed two-high-safety structures, and blitzed at league-average rates of around 20 percent.
Wilson coached under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in two stops totaling five of his twelve years as an NFL coach. Williams might be best known for calling Cover-0 with under a minute on the clock and giving up a long, game-winning touchdown pass to the Raiders’ Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs III in 2020.
Derek Carr's game-winning 46-yard TD pass to Henry Ruggs traveled 53.9 yards of air distance, Carr's 2nd-longest completion this season.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 6, 2020
The Jets sent an all-out blitz, however none of their eight pass rushers were able to get pressure on Carr.#LVvsNYJ | #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/rUVJ9TQ8om
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