Reading the New Defense: Jacksonville Jaguars

Photo: USA Today Sports

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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers' line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago's zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators' past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL's most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus's Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers' tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:

Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%

AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%

Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024

Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami's defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks' new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald's defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio's. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic's Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald's strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald's guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald's success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.

Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia's defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.

? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024

The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.

Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.

Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.

Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023

Macdonald's scheme varies from Fangio's in that the new Seahawks head coach uses more press-man coverage. The next Philadelphia defensive coordinator has preferred off-man coverage.

As an NFL defensive mind, incoming Jaguars coordinator Ryan Nielsen is on trend. Like Macdonald in Baltimore, Ryan Nielsen made regular use of two-high-safety coverage shells and press-man coverage in Atlanta. Nielsen used over fronts on early downs and under fronts to promote interior disruption in clear passing situations.

In just one year in Atlanta, Neilsen improved the defense from 27th in yards allowed to 11th and doubled its number of quarterback sacks. His Falcons eclipsed 40 sacks for the first time since 2004.

In 2022, Macdonald took over a unit that finished 25th in yards allowed and elevated it to third. The 2022 Baltimore pass rush scored 13 more sacks – 48 total – than the 2021 version. Perhaps both Macdonald and Nielsen can run an effective NFL defense. The former earned renown while the latter lost his job in regime change.