Training camps are officially underway, and the NFL news cycle is in full swing. We finally have actionable reasons to start moving players up or down our draft boards, so let's get right to it.
Over the last week, the following players are rankings risers. Target them at or ahead of their current ADPs:
Rankings Risers, Early Rounds
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Jefferson was the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts last year, but he now goes in the middle of the first round through no fault of his own. We owe the discount to Kirk Cousins's departure and the uncertainty surrounding new quarterbacks Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy.
The trepidation is understandable but probably unwarranted. Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL (and fantasy football). He torched the Lions for a combined 18 receptions, 333 yards, and two touchdowns in two games while catching passes from Nick Mullens after returning from a hamstring strain that cost him seven games last season.
Darnold and McCarthy are both off to solid starts in training camp. Neither has been perfect, but they don't have to be for Jefferson to turn in an overall WR1 finish. Minnesota passed the ball 37.1 times per game last season. Mullens and Joshua Dobbs were viable fantasy quarterbacks running head coach Kevin O'Connell's quarterback-friendly scheme. It's doubtful Darnold and McCarthy will represent downgrades over what the Vikings had at quarterback in 2023 following Cousins' torn Achilles.
For his part, Jefferson sounds pleased with the early returns on both Minnesota quarterbacks. And Darnold, the likely Week 1 starter, has drawn praise for his downfield passing. Don't be afraid to draft Jefferson with a top-3 pick or be surprised when he reclaims his throne as the best player in fantasy football.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
The vibes around Kamara aren't great. Expectations for the Saints offense are low, even with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak promising to introduce modern NFL play-calling concepts New Orleans lacked in 2023. Kamara is also grousing about his contract, though he has no plans to sit out.
Buying in on Kamara has more to do with the competition around him for touches. For most of the summer, the prevailing wisdom in the fantasy community had last year's third-round pick, Kendre Miller, taking on a larger chunk of the Saints' backfield workload.
Then this happened:
“That's a player who needs to figure out how to stay healthy because you can't make the team in the training room” — Dennis Allen on Kendre Miller
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) July 24, 2024
Not only is Miller dealing with an injury again (hamstring), but his head coach is suggesting his roster spot could be in jeopardy. We must downgrade Miller due to this news, which means Kamara necessarily deserves a corresponding upgrade.
Yes, he's getting older. And yes, his efficiency is in decline. But there is an increasing chance Kamara will remain a 20-touch per-game player this season, which makes him one of the safest running back picks in his ADP range.
Rankings Risers, Middle Rounds
WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina
No one wants anything to do with the Carolina offense after Bryce Young's disastrous rookie year. But there are reasons to be optimistic about Johnson's fantasy prospects in his first year in Carolina.
New head coach Dave Canales resuscitated failed quarterback prospects at his last two stops in Seattle (Geno Smith) and Tampa Bay (Baker Mayfield). Carolina also improved its offensive line and added more skill-position talent this offseason. But the promise of better play-calling, quarterback play, and all-around talent is only part of the story.
Johnson is underrated. Full stop. Over the last two seasons, he rated No.1 in ESPN Advanced Analytics Open Score, which assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. Other players who finished inside the top 10 include fantasy monsters CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs.
Johnson's ability to separate and create yards after the catch is what Carolina lacked last season. And it's not like fantasy WR1s can't come from bad or mediocre offenses. Look no further than Mike Evans' and DJ Moore's top-12 fantasy finishes last season.
With quotes like this one from Canales, Johnson's current WR38 ADP won't last long. Get in before the window closes.
"As we build our offense, we really try to feature someone.
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) July 24, 2024
And for us right now, 'where is Diontae Johnson at?'"
- Dave Canales pic.twitter.com/s5fbolhbCi
Rankings Risers, Late Rounds
RB Deneric Prince, Kansas City
If you have been drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the last two rounds all summer, thinking Kansas City didn't have another warm body on the roster behind Isiah Pacheco, you're not alone. But it's officially time to adjust.
Deneric Prince has been the second running back in for four straight practices and counting.
— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)
After Edwards-Helaire busted as a first-round pick, the Chiefs changed their running back strategy. Per PlayerProfiler, Pacheco is 24 years old, five-foot-ten, 216 lbs., with a 98th-percentile size-adjusted speed score. Prince is 24, six feet, 216 lbs., with a 96th-percentile size-adjusted speed score. The team invested minimal draft capital in either player (none in Prince's case). On paper, they are the living embodiment of the Spiderman meme.
Prince still has to prove he can pass protect. But the fact he's getting the chance to do so this early in training camp is a positive sign. Kansas City may see him as a redundant asset to Pacheco, whose never-say-die running style should eventually result in multiple missed games.
There isn't another player going undrafted in most leagues with higher injury-contingent upside than Prince.
WR Andrei Iosivas, Cincinnati
I should have listened to Ryan Weisse and Jeff Bell in June when the staff discussed Bengals sleepers, but I assumed third-round pick Jermaine Burton was ear-marked to capture Tyler Boyd's vacated targets. Now, I'm not so sure.
#Bengals WR coach Troy Walters on Andrei Iosivas:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 26, 2024
“He had a great spring. You want to get your best three players on the field. Right now, he's probably No. 3 and playing well. We had to find a way to get him on the field."
Suspect we'll see some kind of rotation between…
Iosivas is a size/speed specimen out of Princeton who made the most of his limited playing time as a rookie by scoring four touchdowns on 15 receptions. He is reportedly lining up all over the formation, including in the slot, which is especially interesting given his six-foot-three, 205-pound frame.
Considering Burton is also off to a strong start in camp, Levitan is probably right about a rotation for as long as Cincinnati's receiver room remains healthy. In season-long leagues, it might be tough to roster either Iosivas or Burton until the rigors of the season take their toll on the depth chart. But one of these guys will almost assuredly post meaningful stat lines as soon as the opportunity arises.
Start scooping Iosivas yesterday in Best Ball leagues, and keep him on your radar in season-long leagues as the summer progresses.
