Quarterback might not seem as important in leagues that start one because of the overabundance of viable options. However, it is still the highest-scoring position in most leagues, and the cost of the top options still doesn't match the sheer number of points and advantage over the competition that they represent. There are going to be multiple right answers at quarterback. Knowing which ones to target and when will help your strategy stay flexible and responsive to the unexpected twists and turns that make us look forward so much to draft day.
RELATED: See Sigmund's Wide Receivers Tiers here >>>
How are the quarterbacks grouped in tiers this year, and how can we use that information to help us win?
Strong QB1
- Josh Allen, Buffalo
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
- Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
Overvalued: Allen, Hurts
Worth Considering: Mahomes, Jackson, Richardson
It's worth taking a quarterback from the top group, but you'll want to take QB3-5 because Hurts' and Allen's arrows are pointing level or down while the other three in this tier are pointing up.
Allen stayed atop the quarterback rankings after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator during the season, but only because he had 8 rushing TDs in five games between Weeks 12-17. His passing upside is much lower under Brady. Don't be the person to break the seal by taking Allen first at quarterback this year. Hurts will be learning his fourth offense in four years, and there's a chance that Kellen Moore might not employ the “tush push” goal line play that has resulted in so many rushing scores for Hurts. There are too many good options later at quarterback to forego taking them by selecting Hurts as the first or second quarterback off of the board.
It's clear that the Chiefs offense will attack downfield more often this season. Patrick Mahomes II on a revenge tour puts QB1 back in his range of outcomes. His poor 2023 could scare fantasy players off of Mahomes in 2024, but especially in six-point pass touchdown leagues, Mahomes might be worth paying up for. Jackson is a very exciting option if only because we've never seen what he can do with a running back like Derrick Henry dividing the defense's attention. He also has more reliable options at wide receiver and tight end than he has had before, and it's year two in Todd Monken's offense. We have already seen Jackson lap the field at quarterback once in his career; he could do it again this year. Richardson is the classic boom/bust choice. Shane Steichen's offensive wizardry and a good collection of talent around Richardson give the quarterback QB1 overall upside both weekly and over the course of the season, but just playing a game from start to finish without getting hurt was a challenge for him. There's a small discount from the top four to reflect this risk, but make sure you get a good QB2 if you take Richardson.
Solid QB1
- C.J. Stroud, Houston
- Dak Prescott, Dallas
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
- Kyler Murray, Arizona
- Jordan Love, Green Bay
Overvalued: Stroud
Worth Considering: Burrow, Love
Undervalued: Prescott, Murray
With the exception of about a one-round or less gap between Richardson and Stroud, this group is going 2+ rounds after the first tier. In extreme cases, you can get one of these quarterbacks 4-5 rounds after the top names, so getting your starter from this tier is a strong consideration. In most drafts, this tier will span 2-3 rounds, but the value across the group is more level than the spread indicates.
Stroud is a tough sell simply because he doesn't come with rushing upside, but there are scenarios where he still delivers value at ADP if Stefon Diggs regains form. Prescott was just behind Josh Allen for QB1 overall after the bye week adjustments that the coaching staff made to feature his arm and CeeDee Lamb's ability to get open at will. He's a layup at an ADP that reflects his season average, not his elite second half. Burrow has already proven that he can be a top five option at quarterback, he just needs to stay healthy. He'll be a value if he avoids the injury bug, which is far from a given. Murray has gained a true #1 receiver and should be faster and quicker than he was one year removed from ACL surgery. We considered him a top-five fantasy option before the injury, and Drew Petzing's offense could actually set him up for success better than Kliff Kingsbury's did. Love was a very good fantasy quarterback once he got straightened out in the second half of the year. Almost everyone in the Green Bay offense, including Love, is on the upslope side of their career arc. If he and that situation improve from 2023 levels, people who take Love in their fantasy drafts will be pleased.
High-Ceiling Rookie QB1
- Jayden Daniels, Washington
- Caleb Williams, Chicago
Undervalued: Daniels
Worth Considering: Williams
Justin Fields taught us that a big-play running quarterback can be a high-ceiling QB1, no matter how bad they are as a passer. Fields' fantasy profile with the Bears is probably the floor for Daniels, but his playing style makes an injury-riddled season like the one Anthony Richardson had last year into play. That's more than reflected in his ADP, making Daniels an excellent pick, especially in Best Ball leagues. Check out what resident sage Jason Wood had to say about Daniels' outlook. Williams' rushing upside is modest, but he did have double-digit rushing scores in each of his last two collegiate seasons. His ceiling comes from the passing side of his profile, with three outstanding receivers and an offensive approach that should emphasize the pass. He could have a similar fantasy impact as 2023 CJ Stroud.
Passing > Running QB1/QB2
- Jared Goff, Detroit
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
Undervalued: Goff, Cousins
Worth Considering: Purdy, Tagovailoa
This group is going in the second half of drafts, but it's not difficult to picture hanging with the teams that take quarterbacks early by trying to play matchups and going with the hot hand among two of them, especially in leagues that reward passing touchdowns, long touchdowns, or big games more than average. All of them are in top-end passing offenses and have a high weekly ceiling to go with a high weekly floor. All are available outside of the top 10 quarterbacks drafted, and they are better than the quality of fantasy quarterbacks we usually see in this portion of the rankings.
Goff has one outdoor game in the first 15 weeks and then goes to Chicago and San Francisco in Weeks 16 and 17. If Jameson Williams breaks out, the Lions' offense and Goff's production will hit new levels. The supporting offensive line and playcalling are also among the league's best.
Purdy has already established a high weekly floor outlook and could still grow as a player in only his third season. It's looking like Brandon Aiyuk will remain a 49er for at least this year, so Purdy's skill player group is in contention for #1 in the league. A boring but smart pick.
Cousins already knows Zac Robinson's offense well because he came up in McVay tree offenses. The offensive line and skill player talent are both big positives, and Cousins has opened camp without limitations after tearing his Achilles last season. He has already been a high-floor QB1 with occasional elite weeks, and there's no reason he can't do that again this year.
Tagovailoa probably can't be used at Cleveland in Week 17, but his weekly ceiling is compelling enough to go into the season with him as your QB1 until further notice. Jaylen Waddle should be healthier, Jonnu Smith is an exciting addition, and De'Von Achane could be more involved in the passing game.
Post-Hype Upside QB1/QB2
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
- Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
Worth Considering: Lawrence, Herbert
Both Lawrence and Herbert are at their lowest value in fantasy drafts since their rookie years. It won't be surprising if one or both outperform ADP.
The Jaguars showed that they are committed to giving Lawrence downfield weapons even though they were outbid for Calvin Ridley's services by Tennessee. There's no reason that Lawrence should break out specifically *this* year, but he probably hasn't played his best football yet.
Herbert's value has plummeted after he lost his top two wide receivers and gained a head coach who wants to run, run, run. If Herbert becomes a runner by design more often in that blueprint (the chances of which are going down after he suffered a foot injury in training camp), he could be back among the QB1 ranks even if the Chargers don't pass very much. Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have made beautiful music with not very much in San Francisco previously, so we could be underestimating Herbert.
Boom/Bust Veteran QB1/QB2
- Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland
Undervalued: Rodgers, Watson
Bad vibes surround both of these players, but fantasy football players have gone too far by pushing them to QB20 or lower. Both will be high-floor, low-end QB1s and have plenty of room to outperform ADP. They are good discount plans at QB2 in Superflex and Best Ball leagues.
High-Floor/Low-Ceiling QB1/QB2
- Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
- Geno Smith, Seattle
Worth Considering: Stafford, Mayfield, Smith
This group doesn't quite have the same weekly and season-long ceiling as Rodgers and Watson, but they also stayed healthy last year and are in good situations. Stafford doesn't add much as a runner and didn't pop for fantasy last year despite piloting a very productive passing game, especially down the stretch. Mayfield lost Dave Canales but gained Liam Coen, who helped revive his career with the Rams in 2022. Smith was considered a possible lower-case-b breakout quarterback last year and could benefit from new-blood offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Speculative Bench Stash
- Will Levis, Tennessee
- Daniel Jones, NY Giants
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota
- Justin Fields, Pittsburgh
Undervalued: Levis, Darnold
Worth Considering: Jones, Fields
This group has more appeal in Best Ball and Superflex than typical 1QB leagues, but they should still be put on the waiver wire watch list if they go undrafted in any old-school format. Levis has gotten a big upgrade at wide receiver and play-caller, and he'll be in a pass-first offense (although there's little evidence he's going to be an actually good NFL quarterback). Jones has Brian Daboll calling the shots on offense instead of Mike Kafka. He adds elite weekly upside with his legs and has a real #1 receiver now in Malik Nabers (although he's coming off of an ACL tear and definitely isn't an actually good NFL quarterback). Darnold is piloting an offense that had the potential to go off with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens at quarterback last year (although J.J. McCarthy is waiting in the wings). Fields has been a fantasy QB1 while struggling as a passer (although he's not projected to start).
Superflex Depth
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh
- Bryce Young, Carolina
- Derek Carr, New Orleans
- Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas
- Jacoby Brissett, New England
- Jarrett Stidham, Denver
This group is only of interest in Superflex/2QB leagues, where every starting quarterback has value. Wilson will be in a hyper-conservative offense and could lose snaps to Justin Fields for special package plays. Young and O'Connell have a ways to go before we would trust them - even as a bye-week option - in 1QB leagues. Carr and Brissett have proven time and time again that they are low-ceiling options. Stidham won't hold onto the job, that is if he can hold off Bo Nix. As soon as Nix takes over, Stidham is mere waiver wire fodder, even in Superflex leagues.
Rookie Bench Stashes
- J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota
- Bo Nix, Denver
- Drake Maye, New England
Fantasy-Relevant Backups
- Joe Flacco, Indianapolis
- Drew Lock, NY Giants
- Jameis Winston, Cleveland
- Jake Browning, Cincinnati
- Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas
There's no reason to draft any of these quarterbacks in 1QB leagues, but in Superflex leagues, they are, at the very least, on your waiver wire watch list, and they could be worth late-round picks, depending on the depth of your league. All of the rookies may require patience but come with a high chance of starting by the end of the season. Of the backups, Flacco is the most fascinating. A repeat of his 2023 - which included a prodigious fantasy football run when it matters the most - is possible because of Anthony Richardson's injury history and the quality of offensive players and minds around him. Lock and Minshew could take over due to poor play and don't need an injury to play. Winston is in the spot that Flacco turned into a magical run last year. Browning was a viable option, and we're not sold on Joe Burrow's durability.
Injury-Upside Backups
- Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets
- Marcus Mariota, Washington
- Jimmy Garoppolo, LA Rams
- Mike White, Miami
- Michael Penix Jr.., Atlanta
- Hendon Hooker, Detroit
- Andy Dalton, Carolina
- Sam Howell, Seattle
- Josh Johnson, Baltimore
Quarterbacks are in this tier because they've shown they can be fantasy-relevant if they start, the starter in front of them isn't the most durable, or both. Taylor is the only one that has both of these going for him. Mariota and Johnson have starters ahead of them with higher-than-average injury risk, but they are among the least effective backups in the league. Johnson might not even break camp as the backup. Garoppolo, White, Penix, and Hooker would all take over outstanding offenses if the starter ahead of them goes down, but they are behind pocket passers and less likely to get a shot to start. Dalton and Howell aren't dead in the water as fantasy options and could get on the field, but they still rank near the bottom of the tier.
Superflex Waiver Wire Watch
- Malik Willis, Tennessee
- Joshua Dobbs, San Francisco
- Desmond Ridder, Arizona
- Trey Lance, Dallas
- Easton Stick, LA Chargers
- Mitchell Trubisky, Buffalo
- Carson Wentz, Kansas City
- Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia
- Mason Rudolph, Tennessee
- Jake Haener, New Orleans
- Davis Mills, Houston
- Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay
- Cooper Rush, Dallas
- Zach Wilson, Denver
- Tyson Bagent, Chicago
- Case Keenum, Houston
- Sean Clifford, Green Bay
- Michael Pratt, Green Bay
- Spencer Rattler, New Orleans
- Nick Mullens, Minnesota
This tier basically stands for the proposition that every starting quarterback has value in superflex leagues. Not every backup situation on this list is settled, so this tier will clarify itself as we go through camp and the preseason.