Quarterback Tiers, Targets, and Players to Avoid

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Quarterback might not seem as important in leagues that start one because of the overabundance of viable options. However, it is still the highest-scoring position in most leagues, and the cost of the top options still doesn't match the sheer number of points and advantage over the competition that they represent. There are going to be multiple right answers at quarterback. Knowing which ones to target and when will help your strategy stay flexible and responsive to the unexpected twists and turns that make us look forward so much to draft day.

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How are the quarterbacks grouped in tiers this year, and how can we use that information to help us win?

Strong QB1

• Josh Allen, Buffalo
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
• Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Overvalued: Allen, Hurts
Worth Considering: Mahomes, Jackson, Richardson

It's worth taking a quarterback from the top group, but you'll want to take QB3-5 because Hurts' and Allen's arrows are pointing level or down while the other three in this tier are pointing up.

Allen was able to stay atop the quarterback rankings after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator during the season, but only because he had 8 rushing TDs in five games between Weeks 12-17. His passing upside is much lower under Brady. Don't be the person to break the seal by taking Allen first at quarterback this year. Hurts will be learning his fourth offense in four years, and there's a chance that Kellen Moore might not employ the “tush push” goal line play that has resulted in so many rushing scores for Hurts. There are too many good options later at quarterback to forego taking them by selecting Hurts as the first or second quarterback off of the board.

It's clear that the Chiefs offense will attack downfield a lot more often this season. Patrick Mahomes II on a revenge tour puts QB1 back in his range of outcomes. His poor 2023 could scare fantasy players off of Mahomes in 2024, but especially in six-point pass touchdown leagues, Mahomes might be worth paying up for. Jackson is a very exciting option if only because we've never seen what he can do with a running back like Derrick Henry dividing the defense's attention. He also has more reliable options at wide receiver and tight end than he has had before, and it's year two in Todd Monken's offense. We have already seen Jackson lap the field at quarterback once in his career; he could do it again this year. Richardson is the classic boom/bust choice. Shane Steichen's offensive wizardry and a good collection of talent around Richardson give the quarterback QB1 overall upside both weekly and over the course of the season, but just playing a game from start to finish without getting hurt was a challenge for him. There's a small discount from the top four to reflect this risk, but make sure you get a good QB2 if you take Richardson.

Solid QB1

• C.J. Stroud, Houston
• Dak Prescott, Dallas
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
• Kyler Murray, Arizona
• Jordan Love, Green Bay

Overvalued: Stroud
Worth Considering: Burrow, Love
Undervalued: Prescott, Murray

With the exception of about a one-round or less gap between Richardson and Stroud, this group is going 2+ rounds after the first tier. In extreme cases, you can get one of these quarterbacks 4-5 rounds after the top names, so getting your starter from this tier is a strong consideration. In most drafts, this tier will span 2-3 rounds, but the value across the group is more level than the spread indicates.

Stroud is a tough sell simply because he doesn't come with rushing upside, but there are scenarios where he still delivers value at ADP if Stefon Diggs regains form. Prescott was just behind Josh Allen for QB1 overall after the bye week adjustments that the coaching staff made to feature his arm and CeeDee Lamb's ability to get open at will. He's a layup at an ADP that reflects his season average, not his elite second half. Burrow has already proven that he can be a top five option at quarterback, he just needs to stay healthy. He'll be a value if he avoids the injury bug, which is far from a given. Murray has gained a true #1 receiver and should be faster and quicker than he was one year removed from ACL surgery. We considered him a top-five fantasy option before the injury, and Drew Petzing's offense could actually set him up for success better than Kliff Kingsbury's did. Love was a very good fantasy quarterback once he got straightened out in the second half of the year. Almost everyone in the Green Bay offense, including Love, is on the upslope side of their career arc. If he and that situation improve from 2023 levels, people who take Love in their fantasy drafts will be pleased. 

High-Ceiling Rookie QB1

• Jayden Daniels, Washington
• Caleb Williams, Chicago

Undervalued: Daniels
Worth Considering: Williams

Justin Fields taught us that a big-play running quarterback can be a high-ceiling QB1, no matter how bad they are as a passer. Fields' fantasy profile with the Bears is probably the floor for Daniels, but his playing style makes an injury-riddled season like the one Anthony Richardson had last year into play. That's more than reflected in his ADP, making Daniels an excellent pick, especially in Best Ball leagues.  Check out what resident sage Jason Wood had to say about Daniels' outlook. Williams' rushing upside is modest, but he did have double-digit rushing scores in each of his last two collegiate seasons. His ceiling comes from the passing side of his profile, with three outstanding receivers and an offensive approach that should emphasize the pass. He could have a similar fantasy impact as 2023 CJ Stroud.

Passing > Running QB1/QB2

• Jared Goff, Detroit
• Brock Purdy, San Francisco
• Kirk Cousins, Atlanta
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami

Undervalued: Goff, Cousins
Worth Considering: Purdy, Tagovailoa

This group is going in the second half of drafts, but it's not difficult to picture hanging with the teams that take quarterbacks early by trying to play matchups and going with the hot hand among two of them, especially in leagues that reward passing touchdowns, long touchdowns, or big games more than average. All of them are in top-end passing offenses and have a high weekly ceiling to go with a high weekly floor. All are available outside of the top 10 quarterbacks drafted, and they are better than the quality of fantasy quarterbacks we usually see in this portion of the rankings.

Goff has one outdoor game in the first 15 weeks and then goes to Chicago and San Francisco in Weeks 16 and 17. If Jameson Williams breaks out, the Lions' offense and Goff's production will hit new levels. The supporting offensive line and playcalling are also among the league's best.

Purdy has already established a high weekly floor outlook and could still grow as a player in only his third season. It's looking like Brandon Aiyuk will remain a 49er for at least this year, so Purdy's skill player group is in contention for #1 in the league. A boring but smart pick.

Cousins already knows Zac Robinson's offense well because he came up in McVay tree offenses. The offensive line and skill player talent are both big positives, and Cousins has opened camp without limitations after tearing his Achilles last season. He has already been a high-floor QB1 with occasional elite weeks, and there's no reason he can't do that again this year.

Tagovailoa probably can't be used at Cleveland in Week 17, but his weekly ceiling is compelling enough to go into the season with him as your QB1 until further notice. Jaylen Waddle should be healthier, Jonnu Smith is an exciting addition, and De'Von Achane could be more involved in the passing game.