The first 15 quarterbacks in our consensus ADP (average draft position) rankings are priced efficiently this season, which means more of your opponents are likely to stumble into a properly valued starter than in years past.
The field at the position also thins out quickly after those top 15. With the possible exception of Deshaun Watson (QB21), the remaining quarterbacks are pocket passers with long odds of competing with fantasy football's elite dual-threat quarterbacks each week.
Two Takeaways
- Don't wait too long to pick a quarterback this year. You want to draft one of the consensus top-15 quarterbacks as your starter (preferably one of the first 8-10).
- If you pick a quarterback who fails to deliver on their lofty ADP, you'll find it more difficult than you remember to patch the position together using the waiver wire. Unless, of course, you're OK starting each week at a significant positional disadvantage.
In short, spotting quarterback busts among the consensus fantasy starters is hard this year, but your championship hopes could depend on it. The margins might be narrow in 2024, but potential landmines still stand out inside the top 15.
QB Bust, C.J. Stroud, Houston
- (ADP 51/QB5)
The Bull Case for Stroud
He posted one of the best rookie years the position has ever seen, and the Texans gifted him a bonafide WR1 by trading for Stefon Diggs.
Why He’ll Bust
The bull case for Stroud could prove 100% true, and he still wouldn’t be worth a pick inside the top-5 quarterbacks. Last season, Stroud scored 22.1 points per game, which placed him ninth at the position – the same range as Brock Purdy (22.8) and Jordan Love (22.6), this year’s QB10 and QB11, respectively.
Let’s say another year of seasoning and the addition of Diggs to an already above-average wide receiver corps gets Stroud to 25 points per game in a best-case scenario (roughly equivalent to last year’s QB3). Here are the quarterbacks who have averaged at least 25 points per game in the past three seasons:
- 2023 Josh Allen 27.9
- 2023 Jalen Hurts 28.6
- 2022 Josh Allen 29.5
- 2022 Patrick Mahomes 28.6
- 2022 Joe Burrow 26.2
- 2021 Josh Allen 28.0
- 2021 Tom Brady 26.9
- 2021 Justin Herbert 26.5
- 2021 Patrick Mahomes 25.9
Allen and Hurts are elite rushers. Stroud averaged 2.6 rush attempts and 11.3 yards per game last season. He did score three touchdowns on the ground, but we have no evidence the Texans plan to feature him more near the goal line (nor should they).
Mahomes is the most talented quarterback in league history, and Brady had the best career of any quarterback. If you draft Stroud thinking he has a vintage Mahomes or Brady season in his range of outcomes, you’re begging to be disappointed.
It’s more reasonable to think Stroud will reach similar heights as Burrow and Herbert in their best seasons. While neither is known for rushing, each padded their fantasy totals on the ground. Burrow averaged 3.43 fantasy points per game with his legs in 2022, and Herbert added 2.84, the latter of which represents a ceiling outcome for Stroud based on what we saw last season.
I have nothing against Stroud, who is capable of landing himself in the NFL MVP conversation, but for fantasy football, his limited rushing ability blocks his path to exceeding his ADP. There is also a downside. Progress is not always linear. Defenses adjust. The Texans don’t pass or call plays at an exceptionally high rate, so volume isn’t on his side.
Let your league mates draft Stroud at his ceiling. You’re better off waiting a round or two for Burrow, Dak Prescott, or Kyler Murray.
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