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Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 18 NFL player props.
Week 18 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Marvin Mims Jr. Over/Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
It's taken seemingly forever since he was selected as a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Mims appears to be coming into his own. With a competent QB in Bo Nix down the stretch and a potent Sean Payton offense, Mims is building on his prolific speed to be a downfield threat for the Broncos.
Mims has 30 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games. He's become the de facto second target of the Broncos behind Courtland Sutton, and he seems to be developing a strong connection with Nix.
With the Kansas City Chiefs resting starters in Week 18 due to them having locked up the first-round bye and Denver needing a victory to get into the playoffs, look for Mims to be at a full complement of snaps alongside the rest of the Broncos' weapons.
Mims should be a strong target, and since he had four catches in the first game against Kansas City, look for Nix to go to him often in this one as well.
Pick: Mims OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-110)
Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (DraftKings)
Do you think Rodgers wants to hit some milestones in what could very well be the final game of his 20-year NFL career? I think he might.
Rodgers is one passing touchdown away from 500 for his career and now goes up against the Miami Dolphins in the final week of the season. Rodgers had 339 passing yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins a few weeks ago in one of his better games this season.
The Dolphins have been solid against the pass and will be playing starters as they are technically not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but you can bet the Jets will relish the opportunity to knock a division rival out of the race. The Fins have allowed two or more touchdown passes in four of their last seven and the Jets will look to jump on the wagon to win this game.
You can get this prop at plus-money just about everywhere.
Pick: Rodgers OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)