Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Back to the chalkboard in Week 16, as we went 1-1 to bring our season total record to 47-21. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 17 NFL player props.
Week 17 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Bucky Irving Over/Under 98.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
We've arrived at the point of the season where the balance of power in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB room has finally shifted: Irving is the clear RB1. HC Todd Bowles expressed some displeasure with how RB Rachaad White essentially lost last week's game with his late fumble, and that, plus the trend of volume sharing, leads us to love Irving this week.
Against Carolina a month ago, Bucky had the best game of his young career, with 185 total yards on 28 touches. This Panthers defense has gotten outclassed all season on the ground, and that probably doesn't change much this week with QB Baker Mayfield sore and nicked up from various injuries.
Since Irving became the 1A of this running back committee in mid-November, he has hit the over on this line in three of his past five matchups, and I don't think the Panthers will be able to stop him here, either.
Pick: Irving OVER 98.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)
Brock Bowers Over/Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Despite playing with uneven quarterback play all season long, Bowers has turned in a rookie season for the ages. He has over 100 catches and 1,000 yards, and he looks every bit like the generational tight end prospect that we all knew he could be when drafted.
Bowers gets a friendly matchup against the New Orleans Saints this week, and it sure looks like the sportsbooks are still not pricing him correctly. When QB Aidan O'Connell plays, Bowers is averaging nearly 85 receiving yards per game.
The Saints provide a solid matchup for Bowers. They are 28th in defensive DVOA against the tight end position, allowing nearly 60 yards per game to the position while giving up the seventh-most targets per game against them.
Pick: Bowers OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards -120
