Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Unfortunately, we suffered our first losing week in Week 14, as we went 2-3 to bring our season total record to 44-18. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 15 NFL player props.
Week 15 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
A.J. Brown Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
We're starting with a good one this week. Everyone by now has seen this clip of Brandon Graham talking about Brown and Jalen Hurts' relationship changing, and it was followed by offensive Kellen Moore taking note that he needs to get the ball in Brown's hands more often.
That's going to start this week in the Eagles' toughest remaining game, a battle against the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers run heavy man coverage, specifically Cover 1 and Cover 3, nearly 45% of the time, which ranks sixth-highest this season, per PFF.
Against man coverage, you will not find many better WRs than Arthur Juan Brown. The star wideout ranks ninth among WRs this season in receiving yards against those coverages despite playing fewer games (10) than the entire top 19 players. He's averaging the third-most yards per game against the coverage shells and ranks second in fantasy points per route run versus man coverage this season.
This may not be a very high-scoring game for the Eagles and Steelers, but you can bet that the Eagles will try to get the ball into their top receiver's hands as much as possible in the early going as they work to change the narrative that has spread.
Brown has hit this in six of his ten games, and we expect that number to rise this week.
Pick: Brown OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
DeAndre Hopkins Over/Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Hopkins has looked good against both man and zone coverage this season since being acquired by Kansas City, but man coverage is where he's really shined. He leads the Chiefs in target rate against man coverage at 23%, and with the Browns running the third-most man coverage this season, according to PFF, he's in for a good week.
The Browns have also reverted to running single-high coverage at the third-highest rate, and since Week 9, Hopkins has had a 26% first-read target share and 2.73 yards per route run against the coverage shell, according to Derek Brown of FantasyPros. This means Hopkins should be Patrick Mahomes II' first target when the Browns bring pressure.
Hopkins has acted as a chain-mover for the Chiefs, but he has also excelled in a downfield role for the defending champs. He has led the team in deep targets since Week 9, and the Browns give up downfield shots at the third-highest rate while in man.
Pick: Hopkins OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Devaughn Vele Over/Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
How does this line continue to be so low on a week-to-week basis this late in the season?
Yes, his last game versus the Cleveland Browns was bad, with only one catch on four targets for 16 yards. However, you have to look closer. We just told you in the Hopkins segment that the Browns run one of the heaviest man-coverage defenses in the league. Guess where Vele's weak spot is? Beating man coverage.
When Vele goes against softer zone coverages where he can run in-breaking routes over the middle and get lost in the shuffle, he is at his best. Games against the following zone-heavy teams were where Vele did damage:
- LAC: 4 catches for 78 yards
- Atlanta: 4 catches for 66 yards
- Las Vegas: 6 catches for 80 yards
Vele should feast against the Indianapolis Colts this week, who have been beaten plenty by slot receivers this season and play the most zone coverage shells in the entire NFL.
This is my FAVORITE bet of the Week 15 slate right here.
Pick: Vele OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Russell Wilson Over/Under 201.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
Who expected the Philadelphia Eagles' defense to be this good this season? Absolutely not me, admittedly, despite being one of the biggest Eagles' homers you'll find.
When I saw this line the other day, a lightbulb dinged in my head. Sure, Wilson has had a solid season. His efficiency, while not great, has been good enough that he's racked up several multi-touchdown games en route to leading the Steelers to where they currently sit in first place of the competitive AFC North.
However, two things are going to work against Russ this weekend.
The first is that star WR George Pickens is out this weekend. Pickens is the Steelers' top wideout and despite his diva behavior sometimes, he is the best chance the Steelers have to put forth an aerial attack most weeks. Without him, the Steelers will likely be forced to push veterans Mike Williams and Van Jefferson into featured WR roles.
The second issue is that the Eagles DO currently have the league's top-ranked defense. They have allowed the second-fewest passing yards to QBs this season, allowing under 191 pass yards per game.
Wilson has not played his best against man coverage this season. He put up 205 passing yards versus the poor Ravens' secondary, 158 against the Browns in clear weather, and while he had nearly 280 versus the Giants, Pickens had 75 of those yards.
I think the Eagles' defense forces Wilson into scrambling much more and making mistakes. Maybe Eagles standout CB Quinyon Mitchell finally gets that first interception?
Pick: Wilson UNDER 201.5 Passing Yards
