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Another solid week in Week 13, as we went 3-1 to bring our season total record to 42-15. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 14 NFL player props.
Week 14 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Calvin Ridley Over/Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
We take the wide receivers playing the Jaguars; it's become a pretty common trope this season. Against the WR position, the Jaguars allow the third-most receiving yards per game, the sixth-most receptions, and the most completed passes of 20+ air yards.
So far this season, Ridley and the Titans' offense, by extension, have been pretty untrustable. In 12 games, Ridley has only hit this over in five of them. However, he has hit this in four of his last six, which means this offense could be turning the corner.
Ridley is the definition of boom-or-bust, given that he's tied to Will Levis, but I strangely trust the mercurial wide receiver since he has at least six targets in each of his past eight games.
Ridley also plays the Z-receiver position in the offense, which is notable because here are some of the stat lines produced by Z-receivers against the Jaguars this season, specifically when matched up against CB Ronald Darby, Ridley's projected CB matchup:
- Jaylen Waddle: 5 catches for 109 yards
- Jameson Williams: 4/124
- Nico Collins: 9/96
- A.J. Brown: 6/98
Ridley is a confident play this week, and I'm on both the over here as well as his longest reception over 25.5.
Pick: Ridley OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Alvin Kamara Over/Under 19.5 Rush Attempts (FanDuel)
Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Saints really don't need to give Alvin Kamara all of the work. No, really, they don't.
Kamara has only hit 20 carries in one of the Saints' four wins this season, and it was a hard 20. In games where they can take over, you've typically seen one of the other runners take most of the work.
With Taysom Hill out for the season with a torn ACL, one would think Kamara zooms right back to his heavy volume, but wait, is that Kendre Miller's music I finally hear?!?
Miller had a chance to make a dent in the workload this season, but Dennis Allen and his seemingly legitimate dislike of Miller threw that to the side. In one of his last misguided actions, Allen even placed Miller on IR when he didn't need it!
Now, Miller is off the IR and could play this weekend, so I'm taking the early discount on Kamara. Kamara has only gone over 19.5 attempts in four games this season, none of which Miller played in. And come on, they really don't need all of Kamara to beat the New York Giants, I promise you.
The Giants allow 23.4 carries per game; only two running backs have gone over 19 carries against them this season. I'm not projecting Kamara to be the third.
Pick: Kamara UNDER 19.5 Attempts (-110)
David Njoku Over/Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
We're right back in it with Njoku, who has struggled at times this season, but ever since the switch was made to go with Jameis Winston at quarterback, he has looked much better.
Njoku has gone over this total in four of his last six games, and he had a very impressive 52 yards on 17 (yes, that's seventeen) targets against the Broncos last week. Just in case you couldn't tell, a bit of sarcasm there.
However, the reason I really love this over for Njoku is this: in the games that he faced off against a defense running heavy man coverage (or at least league-average rates), here were his stat lines:
- Eagles: 5 catches for 31 yards
- Bengals: 10 catches for 76 yards
- Ravens: 5 catches for 61 yards
- Saints: 9 catches for 81 yards
- aforementioned Broncos game
Njoku thrives against man coverage, and the Pittsburgh Steelers run the fourth-most man coverage, per PFF. This is a slam dunk spot for Njoku, as he gets to forget that snowy game a couple of weeks ago against the Steelers in which he dropped multiple passes, including a touchdown.
Pick: Njoku OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Baker Mayfield Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (FanDuel)
One thing we know about an absolute gamer like Baker Mayfield? He's going to do whatever it takes to score points.
Mayfield hasn't hit this line in any of his past three games, but here's the situation. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently rank as the eighth-highest Pass Rate over Expected (PROE) team, which means that in neutral situations, they pass the ball about 1.5 times more than expected. The Las Vegas Raiders, on the other hand, rank as the second-highest Pass Rate over Expected Against team, which means teams are passing nearly three times more than expected against them per game.
Mayfield goes against this Raiders' team that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in their past four games. He should have his top weapon in WR Mike Evans, but I am looking very closely at the injury of the newly-minted top RB Bucky Irving, who came out of last week's game with hip and back injuries. As of this writing, he has not yet practiced, but should in a limited fashion on Friday, although how much we don't know.
The Raiders should be giving up passing yards in droves, so my guess is that we see Baker go over his passing attempts line in this game. With that can come touchdowns.
The Buccaneers are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for first place in the NFC South, so they'll want to win badly. Baker should go over a line that he has hit in 7/12 games this season.
Pick: Mayfield OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
DeVonta Smith Over/Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
I know, I know. Smith has been unreliable this season. He's missed some time with injuries, but has practiced in full the last couple of days and should be good to go for this game against the Carolina Panthers.
The Eagles cannot afford to get complacent for this game. They need to keep pace with the Detroit Lions, who beat the Green Bay Packers on Thursday.
Dallas Goedert is week-to-week with a knee injury suffered against the Ravens last week. Whenever Goedert has been out, we have seen time and time again that Smith is the main beneficiary of the increased target share, with the following stats increase:
- 59.3 to 74.1 receiving yards
- 6.8 to 7.2 targets
- 12.9 to 15.1 fantasy points per game (PPR)
Smith has performed well against zone coverage this season with several strong showings against zone. He should see coverage primarily from slot CB Chau Smith-Wade, who is allowing a 25% target share per route run and 0.42 fantasy points per coverage route, which ranks fifth-worst among corners this week.
Devonta has hit the over in 6/9 games this season, he makes it 7/10 this weekend.
Pick: Smith OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)