Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Another solid week in Week 12, as we went 2-2 to bring our season total record to 35-13. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 13 NFL player props.
Week 13 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Bucky Irving Over/Under 56.5 Rush Yards (DraftKings)
All Irving did in last week's matchup against the New York Giants after head coach Todd Bowles said he had earned more work was rumble for 88 yards on 12 carries while catching all six of his targets for another 64 yards. He out-snapped Rachaad White for the first time and looked like the lead back of the Buccaneers in a dominant performance.
This week, Irving gets another cupcake matchup in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers lead the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 129.5, and now this is a perfect matchup for Irving to again flex his muscles. There should be plenty of work to go around between Irving, White, and Sean Tucker since the Panthers also lead the league in attempts allowed per game at 27.5.
Irving has now gone over this number in 5 of his 11 games, but the Panthers are one of the softest matchups you can get as a running back. I expect the Buccaneers to again dominate this game and Irving to break off some chunk plays.
Pick: Irving OVER 56.5 Rush Yards (-120)
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over/Under 24.5 Longest Reception (FanDuel)
I confess - I took this at 21.5, and then noticed the 24.5 over at FanDuel. Shout out for line-shopping, people!
The Vikings, while remaining a solid matchup for opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, mostly have flummoxed some due to defensive coordinator Brian Flores' ability to confuse opposing offenses with his scheme. While offenses will mostly be forced into a pass-heavy script due to this, sometimes it doesn't always work out for the receivers.
The younger Harrison has struggled a bit this season, and one of the areas he's struggled the most in is against zone coverages. He only has an 18% target rate versus zone, compared to a near-30% target share against man coverage. Similarly, his fantasy points per route run versus zone drops like a stone compared to man, ranking outside the top 50 WRs.
Harrison Jr. has only hit the over on this number in two of his 11 games this season. In addition, the Vikings blitz at one of the heaviest rates in the league. Against the blitz this season, Kyler Murray has only completed three of his ten attempts of 20+ air yards, while the Vikings themselves have seen the second-fewest attempts of 20+ air yards and have only allowed two completions.
This is a stay-away for me.
Pick: Harrison Jr. UNDER 24.5 Longest Reception (-110)
Brock Bowers Over/Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
Not too complicated here. The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards to tight ends per game, while Bowers ranks in the top ten among all pass-catchers in receiving yards and first among the tight end position.
With the quarterback change back to second-year Aidan O'Connell, Bowers' target share shouldn't change. In the four games that Bowers played with O'Connell earlier this season:
- 3 catches for 41 yards
- 8/97 yards
- 9/71 yards
- 10/93 yards
He had 40 total targets in those four games, so he should be just fine in this game against the Chiefs. He caught all five of his targets for 58 yards against the Chiefs earlier in the season as well, so you know he wants to build on that performance.
Pick: Bowers OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Tony Pollard Over/Under 87.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (bet365)
Pollard has been a nice surprise this season. Settling, for the most part, back into a role where he doesn't need to be the main back every single week, he has looked a lot more consistent than he did last season when he needed to be the hero.
He now gets a matchup against the Washington Commanders, who simply cannot stop anyone on the ground. They rank right behind the Panthers as the second-worst team defending running backs (thanks for running all over them, Saquon Barkley!)
Pollard has hit this over in seven of 11 games, and the Commanders have allowed NINE backs to hit this over as well. We're looking at a spot where, even though the Commanders are 5.5-point favorites in this matchup, Pollard could still be heavily involved.
The Commanders are the largest run-funnel defense in the NFL this season, so watch for the Titans to run Pollard out there early and often in this game.
Pick: Pollard OVER 87.5 Rush + Receiving (-115)
