Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Another solid week in Week 11, as we went 4-1 to bring our season total record to 33-11. Getting this article for free is a great reason to sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 12 NFL player props.
Week 12 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Jahmyr Gibbs Over/Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
Gibbs' receiving yards appears to be the gift that keeps on giving for us because the books, while wising up, are still giving us good lines here.
Similarly to last week's Gibbs play, we get another matchup for the Lions' star running back where their opponent gives up tons of receiving yards to opposing backs. The Colts have allowed TWELVE different RBs to get at least 18 receiving yards this season, and while the usual suspects are there, there have even been out-of-the-scope names, like:
- Najee Harris, 3 catches for 54 yards
- Tank Bigsby, 1/28
- Alec Ingold, 1/25
- Cordarrelle Patterson, 2/19
It's pretty clear that the Lions have a good thing going with Gibbs, as he's a massive engine of their offense. With the Colts allowing the 11th-most receptions to the running back position this season, Gibbs could be in store for another big game through the air.
Pick: Gibbs OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kyren Williams Over/Under 76.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
What's going on with the Rams' bellcow running back? Despite games of 85+ total years in three of his last four games, you could argue that the second-year pro has not looked great since Week 6 against the Packers. He's on a four-game streak without scoring a touchdown after starting the season with at least one in six straight, and he's looked a bit more sluggish than usual.
None of this will help Williams with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to SoFi Stadium this weekend for Sunday Night Football. The Eagles boast the league's fifth-best rushing defense by yards allowed per game, with only 77 allowed.
On top of this, only three running backs have had over 63 rushing yards against them, and none since Alvin Kamara in Week 3. The Eagles tend to force teams to throw the ball against them, mostly due to their offense racking up points. The Eagles rank 12th in Pass Rate over Expected Against, which tracks how much more than expected a team throws the football in neutral situations.
It's also notable to see that Blake Corum has finally been getting integrated into the rushing offense, with five carries in last week's win. With Kyren getting somewhat scripted out of some of the Rams' losses this season, this could be a worrying trend, and the Eagles are favored to win this game.
Pick: Williams UNDER 76.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Michael Pittman Jr Over/Under 20.5 Longest Reception (FanDuel)
A fascinating play here, as the Colts are set up for what might be a classic aerial assault against the Detroit Lions this weekend. You typically can't find success running the football against their third-ranked rush defense, so most teams turn to the air.
In his return to the starting lineup after two weeks of being benched for aging veteran Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson looked, dare I say, good against the Jets' once-fearsome defense. A 66% completion rating, a come-from-behind win, and a good showing from the second-year pro showed he was ready to compete.
However, that old Richardson that puts the ball in near-uncatchable spots almost on the regular can still come out, and it tends to happen in cases where you're throwing all the time. I'm not sure the Colts will be able to rely on the run game this week, and Pittman hasn't exactly been reliable himself this season.
Pittman has only gone over this total in three of ten games this season, and in one of them, he was catching passes from Flacco. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense (third-highest PROE Against), but they are sneakily good against the deep ball, only allowing a 31% completion rating when sending heavy pressure (they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL).
Richardson does not perform well against the blitz, only connecting on two of his ten attempts under pressure. That ranks 26th in the league among quarterbacks with at least five deep attempts.
Pick: Pittman UNDER 20.5 Longest Reception (-122)
Bucky Irving Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
I was shocked to see this line so low.
After all, despite only going over 45 rush yards in one of his past four games, Buccaneers' head coach Todd Bowles gave Irving a glowing recommendation and said that he had definitely earned more touches, per the Coachspeak Index. He may have also said that Rachaad White and Sean Tucker would get theirs, but mentioning Irving first definitely struck a key for me.
This is an incredibly good matchup. The Giants have allowed eight different running backs to go over 50 rushing yards against them, and they're also allowing the highest yards-per-carry number in the league at 5.1.
Among running backs, Irving ranks seventh this season with an Explosive Rush Rate of 13.5%. Considering he only gets 8-11 carries a game, that's a very good number and gives him a great shot to blow right past this number this weekend.
Pick: Irving OVER 49.5 Rush Yards (-115)
