Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!

Another solid week in Week 10, as the article went 3-2 to bring our season total record to 33-11. Getting this article for free is a great reason why you should sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!

Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.

Let's dive right into some Week 11 NFL player props.

Week 11 NFL Player Props

We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line! 

Anthony Richardson Over/Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)

Welcome back to the starting lineup, kid. After only two Joe Flacco starts filled with misery, sacks, and turnovers (as well as the Colts stating checks notes two days ago that Flacco was the starter for the rest of the season), the Colts decided to go back to their once-franchise future player. Surely, that went over well with the locker room.

Anyways, back to Richardson. Despite his lack of success through the air at multiple times this season, his game on the ground has been very solid. He's averaging just under seven carries per game and nearly 40 yards on the ground, so this could be a very solid matchup against a Jets' defense that turns their back to the QB when playing man coverage and has given up 20+ yards on the ground to four different quarterbacks this season.

I think the Colts will be playing from behind in this one, and they have a solid pressure unit, so don't be surprised if you see Richardson freelancing a bit. His best rushing games have come against defenses that will force QBs out of the pocket, like Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay, so I think the Jets are a logical spot to see him run. 

The Jets will also have to account for the presence of Jonathan Taylor, so it won't shock me to see the Colts switch things up a bit and make the Jets choose which runner to focus on more.

Pick: Richardson OVER 38.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Tony Pollard Over/Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (DraftKings)

I think we've seen a slight changing of the guard in the Tennessee Titans' running back room. Before last week's game, the Coachspeak Index noted that Titans' coaches had begun alluding to taking work off of Pollard's plate in order to keep the wear and tear down.

Sure enough, we saw that last week, with Tyjae Spears, in his first game back in several weeks, getting ten touches to Pollard's 13 in the loss to the Chargers. Both backs did well with their split, with Pollard accumulating 63 total yards and Spears gaining 51.

In this week's game against Minnesota, we could see that happen again. Minnesota, similarly to the Chargers, have one of the league's best run defenses, ranking first in Defensive Rush DVOA, per FTN. The Vikings, who are coming off a tough win against the Jaguars, need to establish dominance, and I expect they will early against the Titans, which could limit Pollard significantly in this game and force Spears in as a receiver.

The Vikings have only allowed three running backs all season over 13 carries, and all three came in extremely close games, two of which the Vikings ended up losing. With the Titans currently six-point dogs, the sportsbooks do not think this game will be very close, so don't bet on Pollard being able to run the ball down the Vikings' throats.

Pick: Pollard UNDER 13.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

Puka Nacua Over/Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)

We've only seen Nacua in two complete games this season. Otherwise, he's had the season opener where he got injured halfway through, and one quarter where he got ejected. In those two complete games, though, he's garnered over a 40% target share, 16 catches on 23 targets, and over 200 receiving yards.

We get another solid matchup for the sophomore star this week against the New England Patriots, who started out as a tough passing defense, but recently have fallen off a bit. The Patriots allow nearly 75% of their defensive wide receiver production to perimeter receivers, the second-highest mark in the NFL, and Nacua should see heavy usage here.

After locking down anyone and everyone for the first several weeks, Patriots star corner Christian Gonzalez has had a bumpy road, allowing the following:

• 71 yards on two catches to Brian Thomas, Jr.
• 67 yards on four catches to Calvin Ridley
• 49 yards on seven catches to Tank Dell

Gonzalez could have another tough day guarding Nacua, who has basically done whatever he's wanted when available for the Rams.

Pick: Nacua OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Jahmyr Gibbs Over/Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

Talk about another juicy line here! Gibbs has been the rushing and receiving weapon we all clamored about last season and more in 2024, averaging six yards per carry and almost ten yards per reception this year.

He gets another great matchup here against the Jacksonville Jaguars, with somewhat of an asinine line for a guy that has had 20+ receiving yards in six of nine games. The Jaguars have been allowing receptions in bunches to backs, allowing the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards to backs this season.

The Jaguars have also allowed TEN different RBs to get at least 16 receiving yards in a game against them (and Aaron Jones probably would have been #11 if he didn't get injured halfway through last week's game; Prop Talk readers know that pain). 

All in all, it seems as though Gibbs is set up for another monster performance against a Jaguars' team that has struggled this season to contain running backs, and Jared Goff loves dumping it off to one of his favorite weapons.

Look for Gibbs to soar over this number this weekend.

Pick: Gibbs OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Khalil Shakir Over/Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)

Game after game this season, the consistent bright spot among the Bills' passing offense has been Khalil Shakir. Many thought it would be impressive rookie Keon Coleman or second-year TE Dalton Kincaid, but Shakir has transformed into a near-every-down WR this season.

Shakir mans the slot for the Bills 72% of the time, per ESPN's Shadow Report, and he should do so even more in this game against the Kansas City Chiefs due to the absence of Kincaid. Shakir has 33 targets in his last four games, which could balloon in this week's matchup.

The Chiefs are a fantastic matchup on defense for the Bills, which is not something often said this season with how good DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit is. However, the Chiefs give up the fourth-most fantasy points to slot WRs per game this season, as they have had issues since Trent McDuffie had to slide outside due to CB Jaylen Watson's season-ending injury.

The Chiefs have allowed the following statlines this season to slot WRs:

• five catches for 67 yards to Ladd McConkey
• four catches for 86 yards and a touchdown to Rashid Shaheed
• four catches for 48 yards to Sterling Shepard
• four catches for 39 yards and a touchdown to Devaughn Vele

We could see Shakir put up some videogame numbers in this one, folks.

Pick: Shakir OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)