Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 9 finally reminded us that we are simply mortals, as the article went 3-2 to bring our season total record to 30-9. Getting this article for free is a great reason why you should sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 10 NFL player props.
Week 10 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Aaron Jones Over/Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
It feels crazy to me to see Jones at such a low number despite a very, very good matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who allow the third-most receiving yards and receptions per game to the running back position.
However, we have to take advantage of good player props like this one. Jones has gone over this total in seven of eight games this season, and he should be able to get going in this game as well. The Jaguars have also allowed ten different RBs to get at least 18 receiving yards, with backs like Ty Johnson, Dare Ogunbowale, and Roschon Johnson joining the list of backs you wouldn't typically think of to get strong work against them.
In recent weeks, we have seen Jones take a commanding amount of the running back workload, both rushing and receiving. He is coming off games with 25 and 21 touches, which, if you look at the whole of Jones' career, are entirely out of place for a back that rarely ever saw more than 15 touches per game during his time with the Packers.
Sam Darnold loves checking the ball down whenever he comes under pressure, so I expect that even in a game where the Vikings probably win comfortably, Jones is heavily involved.
Pick: Jones OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
J.K. Dobbins Over/Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Dobbins has been a true workhorse this season, which is what fantasy managers and bettors always wanted to see from him. As a workhorse in Greg Roman's system that heavily utilizes running to open the rest of the offense, Dobbins has had a nice statistical season.
However, he has not been the most efficient back, despite those workhorse utilizations. In five of his eight games (and five of the last six), Dobbins has struggled with a sub-4.0 yards per carry number.
That number is unlikely to rise in our eyes against the Tennessee Titans, who have held backs to a 3.81 yards per carry stat this season.
Only one single running back has hit this number against the Titans this year: Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs had 127 yards on the ground a few weeks back, but the vast majority of the number came on a breakaway 81-yard run by the speedster.
Dobbins has definitely struggled at times to gain yards after contact, and with Kimani Vidal now in the mix as well as Gus Edwards returning from his IR stint, I wonder if we see Dobbins used a bit less than normal in a matchup that the Chargers could dominate.
Pick: Dobbins UNDER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Joe Mixon Over/Under 81.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Sometimes, despite the body of work we see, a high number of plays come into the picture for a back in a matchup that shows he might see some pushback, and that's the situation here for me with Mixon.
Mixon has gone over 100 yards rushing in five of his six matchups, with the one under coming against the Bears where he got injured. However, the defenses in those matchups were:
- Patriots (second-most rush YPG allowed)
- Colts x2 (fourth-most)
- Jets (tenth-most)
- Packers (15th-most and were the top run-funnel defense at the time)
The difference between those teams and the Detroit Lions is this: the Lions have given up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season and are a pure pass-funnel defense, with the second-highest Pass Rate over Expected (PROE) Against number.
They also just added EDGE Za'Darius Smith to their defense to help fill the Aidan Hutchinson void. Smith has had success stopping the run in his career, ranking 35/128 edge rushers in Run Stop Rate in 2022.
The Texans also may not have WR Nico Collins back for this game yet, which affects their ability to stay in this game and feed Mixon a bunch of carries. All in all, this is an under on Mixon's Week 10 player prop for me.
Pick: Mixon UNDER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Ladd McConkey Over/Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The McConkey hype train continues for us here at Footballguys this week! We have smacked two McConkey overs in a row and are officially going for the hat trick this weekend.
It's not a huge man-heavy matchup for the Chargers this weekend, but they do run the 12-most amount of man coverage this season and have been beaten by it. However, that isn't the matchup I'm looking at the most; that honor goes to slot WRs versus the Titans in 2024.
The Titans have been solid against WRs, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game versus the position. When you separate slot from perimeter, though... there's something there. The Titans have given up some yards to slot WRs:
- Keenan Allen: 11 targets
- Josh Downs: 7 catches for 66 yards
- Khalil Shakir: 7/65
- Jayden Reed: 4/50
- DeMario Douglas: 7/35
There are more, but you get the picture. Death by many cuts seems to be the answer here, and with us taking an under on J.K. Dobbins already, the Chargers have to win this game somehow!
Might as well be thanks to another great McConkey game.
Pick: McConkey OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kyle Pitts Over/Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The last time we bet this player prop was bad. Pitts had zero catches in a game he was expected to ball out in.
That's okay, though, because everyone deserves second chances. Even Pitts, who's probably on his fourth chance in fantasy managers' and bettors' hearts, depending on who you ask, gets this option.
The Saints have been an open book for tight ends this season, for the most part. Six tight ends have had 41 or more yards against them, and this is a matchup Atlanta should be throwing in. The Saints just fired former HC Dennis Allen, and we all know that teams post-HC firing usually see a bump.
That should make this game competitive, but with WR Drake London dealing with a hip pointer that could limit him, if not keep him out entirely this week, QB Kirk Cousins should look Pitts' way plenty.
Pitts has gone over this total in four of his last five games and is a strong play here.
Pick: Pitts OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
