Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 8 continued our consistent run, going 4-1 once again to bring us to a smoldering 27-7 on the season so far. Getting this article for free is a great reason why you should sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 9 NFL player props.
Week 9 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
James Cook Over/Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
I've certainly been drinking the Kool-Aid on the Bills' third-year running back. They have finally given him the keys to the fantasy kingdom this season, unleashing Cook from just about everywhere on the field.
The one place that the sportsbooks seemingly haven't caught up with yet? His receiving profile.
Cook has gone over 15 receiving yards in five of seven games this season, including the Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins, where he had a solitary catch for 17 yards and a touchdown. Cook has proven himself to be dynamic in the open field, and I expect that to be on display again in what should be a competitive AFC East showdown.
So far this season, six different running backs have gotten above this number against the Dolphins, despite them allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to the RB position on paper. With Keon Coleman and new arrival Amari Cooper stretching the field, this gives more room for Cook to run and should lead to an over hitting here for him.
Pick: Cook OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Malik Nabers Over/Under 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (DraftKings)
After a scorching first four games of his NFL career, Nabers has cooled off a bit in the betting markets after missing two games with a concussion, and his last two games played were somewhat mediocre. That's what'll happen when you play tough passing defenses like the Steelers and Eagles, though!
He draws another divisional rival in the Washington Commanders this week, who have been extremely solid defensively lately. In the month of October, they allowed the sixth-lowest completion rate to quarterbacks.
However, the Commanders' weakness remains single-coverage looks, and Nabers is primed to take advantage of this. According to ESPN's Shadow Report, the Commanders are currently paying about 48% man coverage, and Nabers has dominated man this season, with an insane 43.4% target rate.
The Commanders have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt while in man coverage this season, and I expect Nabers to once again be able to take advantage of this defense.
Pick: Nabers OVER 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)
Alexander Mattison Over/Under 13.5 Yards Longest Rush (DraftKings)
I'll always look for creative ways to fade Mattison when he's a starting running back, and I found a good one this week in his longest rush yards Week 9 player prop.
Mattison's really only been the starting RB in the past four games, and he hasn't hit the over on this prop one time! In fact, the only time he's hit this player prop this season in his eight games: the Week 4 win against the Cleveland Browns, where he had five carries, and one of them was a 24-yard pickup. The Browns have been disappointing against the run, with the fourth-most Explosive Rushes allowed.
The Bengals, on the other hand, have been surprisingly stout on the ground despite their weak defense as a whole this year. They are allowing the fifth-lowest Explosive Rush Rate, which measures the rate of 10+ yard runs a defense allows.
Mattison has really struggled against stacked boxes this season, and the Bengals stack the box at a 14% rate, the third-highest in the league. Mattison averages 1.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes, so I expect him to run into a brick wall plenty of times.
Pick: Mattison UNDER 13.5 Yards Longest Rush (-115)
Joe Flacco Over/Under 233.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)
Death, taxes, and betting your quarterback's passing yards against the Vikings this season! The Vikings haven't held a QB under 240 passing yards since facing Daniel Jones in Week 1, and this weekend might not be any different.
Flacco has gained the interim starting QB job from Anthony Richardson, and while at this point in his career, he's not a long-term option for any team, he knows that he needs to roll with it and get things done. This is an important game for the Colts, as benching Richardson for Flacco meant they wanted to keep the focus on going as deep as possible this season. With the Texans losing to the Jets on Thursday, a win would put the Colts only one game back in the AFC South.
The Vikings run zone coverage over 80% of the time, the highest number in the league, according to PFF. They run Cover 2 and Cover 4 the most, and against those coverages, Flacco has completed nearly 70% of his passes this season. He has a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating against Cover 4 specifically, which the Vikings run nearly 30% of the time.
This is a game in which the Colts' receivers could shine, as Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell have all played well against zone coverage this season.
Pick: Flacco OVER 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Chuba Hubbard Over/Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
At the time of writing, this was a must-play wherever you could find it. Jonathon Brooks is reportedly unlikely to make his NFL debut for another week, per Mike Kaye of the Charlotte Observer, and Hubbard should get fed with carries once again this week.
We were off the mark that a blowout would get Hubbard shut down last week against Denver, so I am leaning into that this week and predicting that Hubbard tees off against a Saints' rush defense that ranks second-worst in rushing DVOA this season.
Hubbard has consistently shown a hard-nosed running style this season, reminiscent of what we saw during his 2,000-yard season at Oklahoma State, and against this Saints team, I can see that continuing, even with Bryce Young still under center.
Pick: Hubbard OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
