Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 7 was another great week, as we went 4-1 to bring us to 23-6 so far this season. Getting this article for free is a great reason why you should sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 8 NFL player props.
Week 8 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
I know that Hurts is 1-5 to the over on this NFL player prop, but we're going there anyway. The Bengals have been the WORST team at containing running QBs on the ground this season, allowing the most rushing yards per game to the position at 37.7 and the most attempts at nearly eight per week.
So far, the Bengals have allowed:
- 39 yards to Jayden Daniels
- 32 yards to Jacoby Brissett
- 29 to Patrick Mahomes II
- 55 to Lamar Jackson
- 56 to Daniel Jones
- 44 to Dorian Thompson-Robinson
The Bengals also have allowed the most designed runs and the second-most scrambles this season. Hurts does extremely well when freelancing, as his change of direction is elite and allows him to move freely around the middle of the field.
Overall, this game feels like it has high-point potential, so I want to have a quarterback who can take over a game like that, both with his arm and his legs. Hurts goes over his player prop in Week 8.
Pick: Hurts OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
James Cook Over/Under 78.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Running backs playing against the Seattle Seahawks have been able to have their way with the defense, considering it's been very banged up recently. Seven different RBs have had 78 or more rushing and receiving yards against the West Coast Birds, and I think Cook is #8.
Cook has hit this number in 4/6 games, and I'm willing to pass last week's miss off as a game playing against a great Titans' defense as well as Cook still recovering from a turf toe injury. This week, he should be even closer, as the Seahawks give up the second-most rushing yards per game, and the Bills rank seventh in Rush DVOA.
With Amari Cooper now in the mix for the Bills, it adds an extra element that teams have to defend against. Seattle will still likely stack the box at an above-average rate, but as Cook ranks 12th among RBs in yards per carry against stacked boxes (4.23), I'm not sure it matters.
Pick: Cook OVER 78.5 rush+receiving yards (-115)
Nick Chubb Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Did you know that this player prop is higher than the amount of rushing yards any single running back has gotten in a game against the Baltimore Ravens this season?
I certainly wouldn't have pegged Chubb, coming off his first game since Week 2 of the 2023 season, to be the guy that gets that title, but here we are. Last week, Chubb had 11 carries for 22 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed four different RBs to get at least 90 rushing yards against them.
Chubb (and the rest of the Browns' RB room) failing to get anything going on the ground against this middling defense could simply mean that Chubb isn't quite all the way back to the ground-and-pound nature he's used to. I think this is a poor line for other reasons, though.
The Browns just switched quarterbacks in the wake of Deshaun Watson's season-ending Achilles tear, and former Bills' OC Ken Dorsey has taken over the playcalling from HC Kevin Stefanski. Yes, this Ken Dorsey.
Dorsey ran a pass-heavy scheme in Buffalo for a while, and with Jameis Winston now at the helm, I expect this to be a pass-happy affair against the Ravens, who rank first in Pass Rate over Expected Against. Chubb goes under here.
Pick: Chubb UNDER 49.5 rush yards (-125)
Kirk Cousins Over/Under 242.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Cousins just had over 500 passing yards versus the Buccaneers a few weeks ago. That alone should be a massive green flag to taking the over on his Week 8 player prop here.
The Buccaneers are allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this season, at over 270 a game. Teams don't run as much against them because you can simply find a lot of open spots against the soft zone coverage that they run nearly 75% of the time, which leads to a lot of completions.
Both Drake London and Darnell Mooney have had plenty of success against zone coverage this season. Both went over 100 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 6, and we could see that again.
I'm less inclined to worry about Cousins' 1-6 record against the over this season because we have this past game as a guiding point to how OC Zac Robinson wanted to attack the Buccaneers' defense. Even without their pass weapons healthy, the Buccaneers can be a dangerous offensive team that keeps Cousins throwing in this one.
Pick: Cousins OVER 242.5 pass yards (-120)
Alexander Mattison Over/Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
You just simply don't start your running backs against the Chiefs in 2024. Apart from Jordan Mason last week, who had a 26-yard run to skew his average yards per rush, not a single back with at least ten carries in a game has averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry, and that was Derrick Henry back in Week 1.
They have shut down Henry, Mason, Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, Alvin Kamara, and J.K. Dobbins so far this year, and I think Mattison is next. Mattison has only hit this prop twice in seven games so far, and despite his newfound workhorse volume, I feel it'll be wasted against the Chiefs' defense.
The Raiders rank 31st in Adjusted Line Yards on offense, which measures the offensive line's contributions to a running back's rushing output. This means that most of the yards Mattison creates will have to be on his own, and while the Chiefs don't stack the box much, Mattison has faced a stacked box only 2.9% of the time and has a true yards-per-carry average of 3.5.
Unless he sees a workload like last week against the Rams, I'm not sure there's a viable path to him going over this player prop.
Pick: Mattison UNDER 40.5 rush yards (-115)
