Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 6 was another great week, where we went 4-1 to bring us to 19-5 so far this season. Getting this article for free is a great reason why you should sign up for the DFS package, as it's just a small taste of what we can offer!
Prop Talk is Footballguys' main NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 7 NFL player props.
Week 7 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Geno Smith Over/Under 11.5 Rush Yards (DraftKings)
We can start things off with an easy Week 7 player prop here. Smith has only gone over this number in three of his six games this season, but in those three games, he has easily cleared this number with 30, 38, and 72 rush yards.
I expect this game to be extremely back-and-forth between the Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons. With that, I also expect that Geno will need to constantly be extending plays as Atlanta can get pressure on the quarterback with Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett. According to ESPN, both rank in the top 20 at their respective positions in Pass Rush Win Rate, and this should flush Geno out of the pocket.
The Falcons, who are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, have allowed every quarterback to go over 15 rush yards against them this season, with the exception of notable statue Derek Carr. With Smith averaging seven rush yards per carry and 3.5 carries per game, I expect him to be able to take this over.
Pick: Smith OVER 11.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Brock Bowers Over/Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
Another player that's only gone over this player prop in 3/6 games this season, but with a massive change in circumstances for the Raiders' offense, we have to look at the last two games, where Bowers has taken on a new role. In the wake of the Davante Adams trade as well as the change at quarterback to Aidan O'Connell, Bowers is now the de facto WR1 of this team (we all know Jakobi Meyers isn't handling Adams' target share) and should be treated as such.
We got 40 pass attempts from O'Connell in his first start last week, with 10 going to Bowers for 71 yards. Meyers, who has an ankle injury, is still not practicing as of this writing, and the Rams have allowed the MOST fantasy points per game to the tight end position in 2024, as well as the third-most yards.
They've given up at least 34 receiving yards to a single tight end in every game so far this season and gave up 67 and 88 yards to Trey McBride and Tucker Kraft, respectively. Bowers is on the level of both players and with the Raiders a touchdown underdog in this game, assume that they'll be throwing plenty.
Pick: Bowers OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Deshaun Watson Over/Under 184.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Same old, same old with the quarterback that the Browns continue to choose not to bench, surprisingly. Week after week, we ask the same question: "Why not Jameis Winston?" Week after week, Browns HC Kevin O'Connell tells us that Watson is the man best equipped to see the Browns win. Well, I don't buy it.
Watson has gone under this number in four of six games now, despite the Browns not facing a top 20 passing defense yet, per DVOA. I wouldn't exactly say that the Bengals are a GREAT passing defense, but they're not awful either, and with Amari Cooper traded away, I'd say Watson doesn't outperform this line.
There is always the question of whether the coaching staff finally gives in and benches Watson, and simply put, how can you trust Watson to do anything more than expected after he's shown through six games that he doesn't have the game he used to?
The activation and announcement of Nick Chubb making his season debut factors into this as well, because what if he simply takes over and Watson doesn't need to throw?
I'll bet Watson unders until proven wrong, and I think the Bengals' defensive pressure, along with Cooper's absence, will win this.
Pick: Watson UNDER 184.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Josh Downs Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Anthony Richardson has been announced as the Week 7 starter, marking his return from an oblique injury suffered a few weeks ago. The driving consensus is that Downs will see a drop in usage, given that Richardson didn't target him nearly as much as others in the lineup when healthy, and that's fair.
However, there were signs that Downs and the others were starting to get going with Richardson before he got injured, and I think they build on that in a get-right game against the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this weekend. Downs has gone over this number in his last three games.
Downs ranks second in the NFL in Fantasy Points per Route Run against zone coverage, and though the Dolphins run man and zone at league-average rates, I think we see more zone against Richardson to try and confuse him. The Dolphins also struggle in zone, with the 28th-ranked team coverage rate against zone coverage.
Pick: Downs OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Despite the Vikings having a very solid defense, they are leagues better against the run than against the pass, giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers as well as the eighth-highest Pass Rate over Expected number. Simply put, they bend, don't break.
The Sun God can take advantage here, as this, combined with a pass rush that blitzes a lot, should put QB Jared Goff into pass-heavy mode. When blitzed, Goff ranks sixth with a 72.1% completion percentage and a league-high 14.1 yards per attempt.
We saw the Lions forced into a pass-heavy script in the loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Goff threw 18 times to St. Brown in that contest, resulting in 11 catches for 119 yards.
The Vikings also play the fourth-most zone coverage in the league, and St. Brown ranks sixth in Fantasy Points per Route Run versus zone coverage while leading the Lions in target share at 28.7%.
Pick: St. Brown OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
