Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 5 was incredible! Our first 5-0 sweep, which brings us to 15-4 on the season in this article, came on the heels of a truly terrific NFL player prop day for me and a great DFS day for Footballguys.
Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.
Let's dive right into some Week 6 NFL player props.
Week 6 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
A.J. Brown Over/Under 67.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This is going to be a potential game-breaking week for Brown. He is WR1 in my fantasy rankings this week because there is one rule with Brown in the NFL: when a team plays heavy man coverage, ESPECIALLY Cover 1, or single-high, Brown is the guy that will beat it.
In 2023, per Fantasy Points Data, Brown registered insane stats against Cover 1: nearly 46% Air Yards share, 33.8% target share, and 45.7% of the team's total receiving yards. Those are clear WR1 overall numbers.
The Browns play Cover 1 at a 76% clip, the highest rate in the league. That means that for nearly three quarters, Brown should be facing off in single coverage against a corner that might not be Denzel Ward since he has not been practicing this week.
This is my favorite NFL player prop of the week; Brown will likely crush in this spot.
Pick: Brown OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (DraftKings)
This play is owed to the excellent analysis of Mina Kimes and Ben Fennell, who both provided the inspiration with this tweet. In it, Mina states that the Washington Commanders, almost 100% of the time, match 12 personnel with nickel coverage on defense. However, the Baltimore Ravens, who love 12 personnel lineups, are more than happy to run against it.
Quick X's and O's lesson: Nickel coverage is when a defense slides a fifth defensive back into the formation, ostensibly to guard more effectively against the pass and to force a team into running more often. However, we don't see teams use 12 personnel much more than Baltimore, which loves that sort of thing.
Enter Jackson and the Ravens, who have played three games in the past two seasons against nickel-heavy coverage: two games versus the Texans and one this year against Buffalo. Jackson's stats in those games: three wins, 159 average passing yards, and 21 average passing attempts.
In all three games, Baltimore's scheme was run-heavy, and Lamar was happy to hand it off or just run himself. With a 6.5-point spread toward Baltimore, I think we see another run-heavy script where Jackson just does not need to throw.
Pick: Jackson UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
Jahmyr Gibbs Over/Under 81.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The stats haven't exactly shown it, but week after week, it's starting to feel like Gibbs is slowly taking over this backfield from David Montgomery. Montgomery is still great, but it wasn't that long ago that he was the preferred goal-line back and the early down back. Now, Gibbs has crept in on those.
OC Ben Johnson obviously wants to keep this as close to a 50-50 split as possible; after all, why wouldn't he? It's working. Teams have no clue which defense to put on the field because while Montgomery is more of a straight-up-the-gut, north-south runner, Gibbs puts those zone-run concepts into play and is capable of bouncing it outside as well as running complete routes out of the backfield.
On that note, the Dallas Cowboys allow the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. They have been a certified run-funnel defense, with the second-lowest Pass Rate over Expected Against number to go along with the second-worst DVOA against the run in 2024.
Gibbs has gone over this number in two of his last three games, and if he had caught a single pass for four yards last week, he would have gone over there as well. The Cowboys get gashed by zone runs (they've already given up 17 explosive rushes this season), and Gibbs should be busy during this game and easily go over his NFL player prop.
Pick: Gibbs OVER 81.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-115)
DeAndre Hopkins Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
A lot of people on the socials have been crowing that it's Calvin Ridley's week this week. I get it: the Colts have been gashed by perimeter receivers all season (Did you miss the Footballguys Discord hitting BACK-TO-BACK yards ladders up to 100 on George Pickens and Brian Thomas Jr. against them?)
However, while both could flourish, I'm more bullish on Hopkins, who mans the other side of the perimeter for the Titans. The Colts run the fifth-most zone coverage in the league this season, and it's Hopkins, not Ridley, who leads the Titans' WRs with 0.42 fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, which ranks top 30 among WRs, while Ridley doesn't even rank in the top 75.
Hopkins, who has seen a 25% target rate against this coverage, should be your go-to play this week. 40.5 is a very small number, and while the Colts have been the biggest run-funnel defense this season, I think Hopkins will be motivated. With 24 yards and a touchdown, he would become the 14th wide receiver in history to have 900 catches, 12,500 yards, and 80 touchdowns in his career.
Pick: Hopkins OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Joe Burrow Over/Under 34.5 Passing Attempts (DraftKings)
Burrow has been playing extremely well this season... even if the Bengals haven't really. There's a hidden benefit to the Bengals' defense being as leaky as it has been, though: Burrow spends more time on the field throwing!
Burrow's attempted more than 34.5 passes in three of five games this season. He's compensating for a defense that takes a beating almost every week. Now, he just lost one of his running backs to an ankle injury (Zack Moss), and the other (Chase Brown) popped up on the injury report with a quad injury. Even if both play, more leaning on the passing game could happen.
The Giants are not a team that you would expect to force quarterbacks onto the field that much, but they have had a mini resurgence this season. Even without star rookie WR Malik Nabers, who is currently recovering from a concussion, the Giants forced the Seattle Seahawks into a pass-heavy game script with 40 attempts.
The Bengals, who rank third in Pass Rate over Expected, could easily be backed into a game script where throwing the ball on the Giants, who rank third in PROE Against, is profitable to them.
Pick: Burrow OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
