Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 4 was our first down week, as we went 2-2 to bring the total for our tracked plays to 10-4 on the season. It's time to rebound this week, though!
Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.
Let's dive right into some Week 5 NFL player props.
Week 5 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Jayden Reed Over/Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Reed has been on a tear when Jordan Love has been in the lineup this season. In those two games, he averaged 4.07 Yards per Route Run, which rises to 5.56 when he faces single-high coverage. The Rams run single-high defensive looks at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL this season, which means Reed should have a lot of room to operate as someone who has done almost the entire bulk of his production against zone coverage.
Reed is the rare WR1 in today's NFL that doesn't operate as a high-volume receiver in his offense. He does his damage on chunk plays, ranking fifth this season among WRs in yards after the catch. That makes him able to do a lot of things against soft defenses, which the Rams certainly have been.
I have a strong feeling this game could see a lot of points on both sides. Matthew Stafford is the exact kind of quarterback who can pick apart a defense like Green Bay's, which bodes well for some back-and-forth action that sees Reed spend plenty of time on the field.
Pick: Reed OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 8.5 Carries (DraftKings)
Death. Taxes. Lamar Jackson taking things into his own hands during big divisional matchups.
There are few certainties in life, but Jackson showing up in divisional games is one of them. He has averaged 10.2 carries for nearly 60 rushing yards across his career against the AFC North, but he especially turns things up against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Against Cincinnati, Jackson has averaged 11.2 carries per game for nearly 70 rushing yards, with at least nine carries in each of the last five matchups against them.
I can see another spot here where Jackson puts this team on his back, even with Derrick Henry now firmly entrenched as the starting RB for this team. Jackson has gone over nine carries twice this season but should be in line against the Bengals to go over again, given that two of their main run-stoppers on the defensive line are either hurt or working their way back from injury in Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill.
Pick: Jackson OVER 8.5 Carries (-135)
Zack Moss Over/Under 11.5 Carries (bet365)
Going into the season, everyone imagined Moss and Chase Brown would split touches nearly 50/50, given Moss's history as mostly a change-of-pace back. However, it quickly appeared that Moss had the upper hand on the backfield, and Brown got relegated to the change of pace role.
Over the last few weeks, we have seen Moss look very inconsistent. He had games of 3.4 and 2.8 yards per carry in two of his last three, and despite his role as the short-yardage and passing back looking very consistent, we have seen Brown sneak more and more work away. Frankly, Brown looks more explosive than Moss, and I wonder if this doesn't flip soon?
Going up against the Ravens, HC Zac Taylor has already intimated that he wants both backs involved equally now, and given that Moss has only really shown a lock on the passing down role in the last couple games, I wonder if we don't see Brown have more carries? In this game against the Ravens, a massive divisional showdown, I think we see less running as a whole out of Cincinnati.
The Ravens have only allowed one running back over 12 carries this season, and that was Isiah Pacheco back in Week 1.
They also rank second in the NFL in Pass Rate over Expected Against this season, as they tend to force teams into throwing much more with a very strong run defense. You don't have to tell Joe Burrow twice, either, as the Bengals are once again a pass-heavy team in 2024, with them ranking 5th in PROE.
Pick: Moss UNDER 11.5 Carries (-125)
D'Andre Swift Over/Under 50.5 Rush Yards (DraftKings)
I don't think anyone saw Swift's breakout game of the 2024 season coming last week. Despite a strong matchup on paper against an injury-riddled Los Angeles Rams team, I didn't think the Chicago offensive line and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron were capable of a creative offensive game plan.
Swift proved everyone wrong with a massive 160 yards from scrimmage, and now we have a similarly juicy matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who rank third-worst in Rushing DVOA and give up the second-most rushing yards per game this season. This is a game that, like last week, Caleb Williams simply might not have to throw as much, which would lead to increased Swift usage.
Despite rumors and statements of a heavier Roschon Johnson game, last week proved that this is still Swift's backfield until further notice, and what better way to cement it than with another statement game on the ground? The Panthers have gotten gashed by zone runs all season, and Swift runs a zone nearly 80% of the time.
Hopefully, we get last week's version of the offensive line, but they're up to 10th in Run Block Win Rate, according to ESPN, so there is some hope.
Pick: Swift OVER 50.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Brian Thomas Jr. Over/Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Malik Nabers has far and away been the most impressive rookie wide receiver through the first month of the 2024 season, but not far behind him is Thomas. The Jaguars' rookie ranks second in receiving yards and receptions and third in touchdowns and appears to be WR1A or 1B, depending on the week.
Going into a game against the Indianapolis Colts, who have been the biggest run-funnel defense in the league through four weeks, might not seem like a great place, but I assure you, this whole Colts' defense is just not terrific right now. They are also getting smoked through the air, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs.
The Colts play an extremely high rate of zone coverage, nearly 80%. Thomas ranks first on the Jaguars in target share versus zone as well as receptions despite running the third-most routes while also ranking 15th among WRs in fantasy points per route run, so I'm comfortable in saying he should feast in this spot.
As the Jaguars' deep threat, Thomas is also in a great spot to snag a deep ball. The Colts have allowed the fifth-highest rate of 20+ air-yard throws, as well as the most yards from throws of 20+ air yards.
Thomas is an absolute slam dunk of a pick here.
Pick: Thomas OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
