Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
Week 3 was another stellar week for us, as we went 4-1 AGAIN to improve to 8-2 on the season. Brian Robinson Jr. struggled to get to 50.5 rushing yards, but the process was correct!
Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.
Let's dive right into some Week 4 NFL props.
Week 4 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL props lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
James Cook Over/Under 11.5 Longest Reception (BetMGM)
Cook has been on fire these first couple games, and honestly, some of us at Footballguys did not see this coming this season. He has taken most of the goal-line carries, a role that some (including myself) thought rookie RB Ray Davis would get, and he has been very efficient in running the ball with a 4.6 yards per carry average.
However, one of the biggest usages for Cook has been in the receiving game, and it's been notable. Cook has had at least 17 receiving yards in all three games so far, but more importantly, he has had at least a 17-yard catch in all three games so far, which bodes well for this NFL player prop.
Cook now draws a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, and I see him having another notable long catch here too. The Ravens are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs, per Lineups.com, while giving up the fourth-most targets per game to the position.
Cook is also averaging 11.1 yards after the catch per reception, which ranks ninth among all RBs, so he could be a candidate for a big play here. He has been running the 25th-most routes among RBs but has the ninth-highest target share, so he is making the most of what OC Joe Brady is giving him.
Pick: Cook OVER 11.5 Longest Reception (-115)
Chris Godwin Over/Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Godwin has been a target monster so far during the 2024 season, getting at least eight targets in every single game so far.
In this week's game against the Eagles, he's set up to hit that number again, as the Eagles have been a plus matchup for opposing wide receivers, especially ones running out of the slot where Godwin has run over 60% of his routes this season. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to inside WRs in 2024.
Despite the Eagles being a run funnel the first couple weeks of the season, they held up against Alvin Kamara and co. in Week 3, with Derek Carr looking to the passing game to get things done in a low-scoring game. With the Eagles probably down A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this week, I wonder if this isn't a game where Baker Mayfield pushes the ball downfield against the Eagles?
Against man coverage, which the Eagles have played at the 11th-highest rate this season, Godwin is averaging a 31.6% target share and ranks in the top 15 among WRs in fantasy points per route run. He's a top-tier WR this week and one that I think has a big game.
Pick: Godwin OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Alec Pierce Over/Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
One of the biggest utilization shockers so far in the early parts of the 2024 season has been Pierce's role in this Indianapolis Colts' offense. Considered an afterthought this season due to the emergence of Josh Downs in 2023 as well as the drafting of rookie WR Adonai Mitchell this year, Pierce quickly burst onto the scene with multiple deep catches in the first few weeks.
However, his role was always in question over the long term due to Downs's predicted return to the lineup after a preseason high ankle sprain, and last week, we finally got to see how Downs would affect Pierce. Pierce dropped drastically from playing 95% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 to 77% in Week 3, and he split snaps with Mitchell in 12 personnel, per Nate Jahnke of PFF.
Anthony Richardson has been spreading the ball around, but even with that, he's been extremely inaccurate, so with Pierce rocking a league-high 23.9 Average Depth of Target, he could see a decrease in targets, dropping to two last week after seeing ten in his first two games.
With Richardson so inaccurate on those deep shots, I wonder how much of Pierce we see against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have only allowed one completion on six attempts of 20+ air yards and allow the fifth-lowest fantasy points per game versus outside wide receivers. Take the under on this player prop.
Pick: Pierce UNDER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Stefon Diggs Over/Under 5.5 Receptions (DraftKings)
Coming into the season, I was definitely high on Nico Collins, as you could see from my Player Spotlight on him. I also put Diggs into my fourth tier of wide receivers, ranging around WR17-24. Through three weeks, that has held true for the most part, as Diggs ranks as WR13 in fantasy points per game, mainly at the expense of Tank Dell.
I don't expect that to continue all season, but I do expect it to continue this week. Dell has reportedly been dealing with a painful rib injury and is unlikely to play this weekend. Then, on Thursday afternoon, we got word that Nico Collins had picked up a late-week hamstring injury, although he did practice in a limited fashion.
Usually, when players pick up a late-week injury, it's not a fantastic view for that upcoming game. Although Collins is still practicing, it's fair to wonder whether the injury will affect him, which brings us to this matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars are a massive pass-funnel defense. They rank sixth through three weeks in Pass Rate over Expected Against, with Josh Allen and the Bills torching them through the air. I expect Diggs to be heavily involved in this game, as the Jaguars have played the fourth-most single-high coverage and Diggs leads the Texans against single-high coverage with a 25.8% first-read target share, per Derek Brown of FantasyPros. There is room to grow here, as Diggs could have 10+ catches in this game if Collins is truly limited.
Pick: Diggs OVER 5.5 Receptions (+105)
