Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
We enjoyed an excellent debut for Week 2 player props, going 4-1 (Gotta love Rhamondre Stevenson getting two catches early and then not a single one for the remaining three quarters!)
Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.
Let's dive right into some Week 3 NFL props.
Week 3 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL props lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
George Pickens Over/Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Is there a more underrated wide receiver than Pickens right now? We saw him only have two catches for 29 yards against the Denver Broncos this weekend, but feast your eyes on the below clip of the hardships he endured in that game:
George Pickens with a 2-29-0 dud in the box score but:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 16, 2024
-51 yard catch over Pat Surtain nullified on a hold
-6 yard TD nullified on OPI by Van Jefferson
-Drew a 37 yard DPI on Surtain pic.twitter.com/tOgvX2zRrp
As Ian would say, "SHEESH!" However, the grass can be greener! Pickens draws a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, and while the on-paper numbers have been solid there, have they really been tested against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Carolina Panthers?
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers both had solid 60-yard performances, and Pickens should be able to join them. He has done the vast majority of his damage against zone coverage this year, leading the Steelers with a 26% target share, and the Chargers are currently the most zone-heavy defense in the NFL.
I think Pickens can get over this number in one shot, and I'll always take that. Justin Fields and he have a nice rapport (Fields threw the best pass of his career to him last week), and I'm taking the over here to agree with our Footballguys Projections, which have him at 65 yards.
Pick: Pickens OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Josh Allen Over/Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (DraftKings)
This iteration of the Buffalo Bills is weird, dude. They rank in the bottom third of the NFL in Pass Rate over Expected, per Draft Sharks, and don't have any players with over eight targets so far.
Allen has had 19 and 23 passing attempts in the two games he's played, and with the Bills cleanly winning each game, what motivation is there to change things up? They're the most run-heavy team in the NFL since Joe Brady became the offensive coordinator following Ken Dorsey's firing midway through last year, and it's seemed to work.
The Jacksonville Jaguars may rank sixth in rushing DVOA, per FTN, but I still think the Bills will run James Cook and Allen up the throats of this defense, and it might not even matter, because Jacksonville's offense is a mess.
They rank 21st in Expected Points Added per rush attempt, where the Bills have their weak spot, and while Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have added a downfield presence, the Bills are sixth in defensive pass DVOA and should be able to generate plenty of pressure to throw Trevor Lawrence off his game.
Allen might not have to throw enough to get to this number, and with a game in which the Bills dominate, we're taking the under on his player prop here.
Pick: Allen UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Brian Robinson Jr Over/Under 50.5 Rush Yards (DraftKings)
Robinson has been EXTREMELY efficient so far this season. Despite the Commanders operating what is essentially a split backfield between him and new arrival RB Austin Ekeler, Robinson is winning the rushing battle with three times as many carries as the veteran through two weeks and doing well, averaging six yards per carry and is third in Rush Yards over Expected per carry.
The Bengals have struggled this season to contain running backs, allowing Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for over 100 against them in Week 1 and the Kansas City Chiefs to run for almost 150 in Week 2. They currently rank fifth-worst in RYOE per carry and things could be difficult against a Washington team that wants to run, run, run.
The Commanders, led by rushing QB Jayden Daniels, are not passing the ball as much in neutral situations, preferring to run it up the gut with Robinson. They have the fourth-highest Explosive Rush Rate in the NFL at 18.5% and an offensive line that ranks eighth in Run Block Win Rate.
When all these factors come together, there is definitely a feeling that Robinson goes over this line with ease, and I'll be exploring a rush yards ladder for Robinson despite a tough matchup for the Commanders to win.
Pick: Robinson OVER 50.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Jahmyr Gibbs Over/Under 76.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
It's hard to decipher this Detroit Lions' backfield on any given week. Just like in 2023, the Lions have chosen to put both of their capable backs out in multiple situations because they are both extremely talented at running the Lions' offensive scheme under Ben Johnson.
However, I think looking at the rushing+receiving yards market finds us a bit of an edge. Montgomery has been the back that Detroit loves to salt games away with. He's the run-it-up-the-gut guy, the 220-pounder that can barrel into the teeth of the defense for the tough yards. Gibbs, obviously, has been more of a finesse guy for the Lions, but they rely on him for yards after contact per attempt, ranking 11th in the NFL this season for.
The Cardinals currently rank fifth-lowest in Pass Rate over Expected against as a defense, so I'm expecting the Lions to come right out and be run-heavy, but they've also allowed a running back to have at least 25 receiving yards against them in both games so far this year.
Our projections have Gibbs at 87 total rushing and receiving yards this week, so there's a clear edge for me in this one. I'm taking the over.
Pick: Gibbs OVER 76.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-115)
Gabe Davis Over/Under 19.5 Longest Reception (DraftKings)
It's been a while since I wagered on a Davis player prop! Unfortunately, this is a matchup that he may not enjoy that much.
The Bills have been one of the NFL's lockdown passing defenses so far this season, ranking as the seventh-best defense in Expected Points Added per Dropback despite teams throwing at a high volume against them. Locking down Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa isn't easy, folks!
Things get even more eye-opening when you look at their deep passing defense. The Bills are one of only two teams to allow ZERO completions on throws of 20+ air yards so far, forcing incompletions on all seven attempts they've faced. That's shutting down guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Trey McBride.
Enter Davis, who has had a quiet start to the season. He's had three catches in both of the first two games this season, and he's had a 22-yard catch in each of them, but now he's going up against Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and Benford in particular, has been terrific.
I'm worried that the Bills' defense will completely overwhelm Trevor Lawrence, and this will not allow him to find Davis downfield here. Without Evan Engram again to draw extra coverage, Davis could have a long day.
Pick: Davis UNDER 19.5 Longest Reception (-115)
