Prop Talk Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 1 Props

Changes to 2024 Season:

Going forward this article will be done by Sam Wagman. You can follow Sam here. This article will be released on Fridays each week. It’s been a lot of fun the last five seasons doing this article, however my schedule just could not put as much into this as what Sam will be able to do each week.

Joe Burrow Under 244.5 Passing Yards

The Bengals are a bit of a mess at the moment. While Ja’Marr Chase's status has not yet been released, he has come out and stated that he would be limited if he plays. The receiving options for the Bengals are not deep as they have Andre Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, and Trenton Irwin as their other receivers. With the Bengals being big favorites in this game, they could lean heavily on both Zack Moss and Chase Brown this week as well as their defense to just grind out a win against the Patriots.

Will Levis Under 236.5 Passing Yards

Heading into this season the Bears defense is expected to be one of the better secondaries in the NFL this season. The Bears brought in veteran safety Kevin Byard who knows Will Levis well as he was in Tennessee last season before being traded to Philadelphia halfway through the season. Levis only topped 236.5 passing yards in three of his nine games last season. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson is amongst the league’s best cornerbacks and should make life difficult for Calvin Ridley this week.

CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards

This is a scenario of the sportsbooks giving too much respect to the Browns' defense. The Browns struggled the second half of the season allowing 28 points per game. Based on the Browns' history they may not have Denzel Ward shadow CeeDee Lamb as Ward played on the right side of the field for 94% of the snaps last season, while Lamb lined up in the slot for 58% of snaps last year. The Browns allowed George Pickens, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Tyler Lockett, Puka Nacua, and Nico Collins all to top 80.5 yards last season with the same personnel. Lamb is significantly better than each of those receivers and should be in a great spot this week.

Davante Adams Over 67.5 Receiving Yards

Gardner Minshew is a quarterback who locks on to his top receiver as we saw last season when Michael Pittman went over 67.5 receiving yards in 8 of his 12 games with Minshew last season. Adams was a priority for the Raiders this offseason as rumors were speculating that he might be traded. Adams will have an extremely favorable matchup this week as he will face off against Kristian Fulton who was one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL last season while Jakobi Meyers draws a very difficult matchup against Ja’Sir Taylor. Adams has four consecutive seasons above 1,100 yards which last season was his worst season of the four averaging 67.5 yards per game. With Minshew at quarterback, these numbers should stabilize as he got off to a slow start to the year when Jimmy Garoppolo was the starter in Las Vegas.

Aaron Jones Over 55.5 Rushing Yards

This is very likely a personal bias, but this number seems far too low. The New York Giants allowed the third most rushing yards last season to opposing running backs, they lost their star safety in Xavier McKinney, and the only key addition that they made was adding an elite pass rusher in Brian Burns. Micah McFadden is still going to start for this defense after leading the NFL with a 17.5% missed tackle rate. A linebacker who led the league in missed tackles, beating out all cornerbacks is something that is difficult to comprehend. Aaron Jones throughout his career has shown that when given a full workload he can succeed. He’s coming off of the worst season of his career which was a season which he averaged 4.6 yards-per-carry which is far above average despite being below his career average of 5.0. This is a talented running back that as long as he can stay healthy he is extremely likely to top 55.5 yards this week given the lack of competition with Ty Chandler being the only other back on the Vikings depth chart besides the recently signed Myles Gaskin.