Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 17

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

In most fantasy football leagues, Week 17 is the end of the line. This is it. Two teams remain alive in the chase for glory. By Monday night, only one will remain—and they will be champion.

The stakes this week explain themselves. No one remembers who loses the title game unless the person who loses it.

So, Harris and Davenport are here to make sure you aren’t them.

Title Time

It’s Championship Week in Most Leagues. Playtime is over. Get to work.

Polarize one quarterback ranked outside the top 12 in this week’s rankings at Footballguys who could finish inside the top-five. And one inside the top-10 who could easily fall outside the top-20.

Harris: The player outside the top 12 most likely to finish inside the top five is the same guy who nearly pulled it off against this week's opponent just four weeks ago. Bryce Young finished as QB7 going up against the Buccaneers at home. He scored 23.6 points in that game. The Panthers are on the road this time, but there's still plenty to like here. Young has been running the ball more in recent weeks, and Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to QB (6) and the second-most fantasy points to the position (20.6 per week). And as Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted, the Panthers have an early team total of over 20 points, and Young is coming off a pair of multiple-TD games.

The quarterback inside the top 10 who'll finish outside the top 20. Oh my. That's a precipitous fall, so I'm going with the guy at No. 9 this week. In addition to being at the bottom end of that top-10 range, I'll go with Kyler Murray. I know, he just scored 22 points against the Panthers last week. I also know his best performance this season came in Week 2 against this week's opponent, the Rams. He scored 28.5 points in that. So, what in the name of holy heck am I doing projecting a finish outside the top 20? Since "Gary made me" isn't a good answer, how about this: The Rams' defense is better. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted, they've allowed fewer than 10 points in consecutive games for the first time since 2015 and just six passing touchdowns since Week 12, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Murray, meanwhile, has just five passing scores in his last seven games overall and one or fewer in four of his five most recent games against the Rams. In addition, the man they call the "heartbeat of the offense" in Arizona, James Conner, has a knee injury, and his availability remains uncertain.

Davenport: Here’s hoping Harris is spot-on about Young—with Jalen Hurts looking unlikely to play, I’ll be starting him in a championship game. You know, just like I planned back in September.

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers threw three interceptions against the Minnesota Vikings back in Week 4. But he also threw for 389 yards and tossed four touchdown passes on the way to finishing third among quarterbacks in fantasy points that week. The Vikings are one of the hardest teams in the NFL to run on, but the pass defense is, um. Not good—29th in the league in yards allowed through the air per game.

The Buffalo Bills still have something to play for in Week 17—a victory over the New York Jets locks up the AFC’s No. 2 seed, and Josh Allen knows full well that he’s the front-runner to be the NFL MVP this season. However, Allen is also dinged up, and as soon as this game is sewn up Allen’s likely to get the proverbial hook. Allen will probably improve on last week’s QB26 finish, but there are some real chances for fantasy disappointment.

Rolling at Running Back

Let’s keep it rolling with a running back call or two.

Which back ranked outside the top-25 has the best chance to lead fantasy managers to glory, and who is the most likely RB1 to fall flat?

Harris: I love the Raiders' matchup against the Saints. And since Alexander Mattison is RB24 this week, I can't go with him. But Ameer Abdullah? He's our RB28. And you know what? I'm fine with this. In case you haven't been paying attention, Abdullah, a more dynamic receiving threat than Mattison, happens to be RB11 over the last two weeks. He's scored a touchdown in each and averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game. New Orleans' defense has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to running backs in 11 of their past 13 games, and the Packers ran for 188 yards against them this past Monday night.

The other side of this coin is a bit more complicated since two RB1s this week, Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry, have already played. Mixon was the guy who fell flat, so we're taking our chances on predicting another failure. Yet here we are. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard is RB10 this week. He was RB2 overall last week with 32.5 points. This might be a bit of wishcasting. A poor rushing day by Hubbard against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game would benefit my QB pick. So, while this is a huge reach, the matchup favors the passing attack. I should also acknowledge Hubbard, who caught five passes against the Cardinals last week, is part of that. Also, it feels like the least massive reach of all the remaining RB1s this week.

Davenport: Tyjae Spears of the Tennessee Titans at RB26 might be relatively low-hanging fruit. But it’s more important this week to be right than reach. So, Spears it is. There’s a real chance Tony Pollard doesn’t play this week against Jacksonville, and even if he does, Spears has out-snapped Pollard the past two weeks. The Jaguars sport the NFL’s worst defense overall, and over the past two weeks Spears quietly ranks fifth among all running backs in PPR points.

You can cross Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks off the list too—having arguably the worst all-around offensive effort from two teams of the entire 2024 season in Week 17 was nice. Thanks, Bears and Seahawks. That was fun.

Another top-12 back flopping this week would make for quite the list. But there’s cause for some concern with Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings have allowed an NFC-low 87.1 rushing yards per game this season, and in their Week 4 meeting with Minnesota Jacobs amassed 78 scoreless yards on 13 touches.

Winning Out Wide

Time to win some titles at wide receiver.

We’ll double up here with the breakout picks—one outside the top-30 and another outside the top-40 ready for a big Week 17.

After getting socks (again) for Christmas, fantasy managers only need one disappointment at the position. The bigger the name and bolder the call the better. Bold wins.

Harris: If it seems like I'm trying to leverage the players closest to the limits here, you might be on to something. In this case, I'll start with WR31 this week, the Titans Calvin Ridley, who gets a second shot at a revenge game after catching seven passes for 59 yards against the Jaguars in Week 13. I don't have much to hang my hat on here, but Ridley did haul in a touchdown pass from Mason Rudolph last week, and I'm hoping he can find the end zone again this week.

The player outside the top 40 is an easy call: It's Tampa Bay's Jalen McMillan, who is WR19 over the last three games with an average of 19.1 points per game. How do we explain his sudden success? Well, he's drawn more than a 20 percent target share, scored four touchdowns, and benefited from favorable matchups -- which he gets again this week against the Panthers. This is, by far, the easiest part of this assignment.

If we want to be bold here, Gary, there's only one answer, right? It's Ja'Marr Chase. First, he'll be going up against Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Surtain has shadowed DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, and Jerry Jeudy. Only Jeudy reached double-digit fantasy points; nearly all his damage was done when not covered by Surtain. And to be clear, Chase will run out of the slot often, so he'll not be shadowed then. Also, as Clay added, "Chase is borderline matchup-proof." Still, the forecast in Cincinnati calls for rain. And wind. And yes, I'm generally weather agnostic, but I'm trying to talk myself into believing my own take that Chase might be a disappointment, so going the extra mile is necessary. It's not easy, and I'm not sure I succeeded -- unless not finishing as THE WR1 overall this week is a disappointment. Then, this is entirely possible.

Davenport: I am firmly on the Jayden Reed (WR38) bandwagon in Week 17. Hell, I may be driving it. No team in the NFL has surrendered more PPR points to receivers this year than the Vikings. The last time Reed and the Packers played Minnesota, Reed caught seven passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. And it’s entirely possible Green Bay wideout Christian Watson (knee) will miss this week’s big NFC North showdown.

Couldn’t agree more on the McMillan call—seriously considering starting him over Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals this week. Parker Washington of the Jaguars doesn’t have the same kind of fantasy upside, but the second-year pro has some “flex” appeal this week against a Titans defense that I expect to bracket rookie Brian Thomas Jr. approximately 135 percent of the time.

D’oh! I appear to have given away my answer to the last part.

The Titans allow 178.3 passing yards per game—best in the NFL. No team in the AFC has given up fewer PPR points to wide receivers in 2024 than Tennessee. In fairness, Thomas caught eight passes for 86 yards in the first matchup between these teams. But it’s a bad fantasy matchup with a worse quarterback in a week where one dud can get you dead. We’ve already had more than a few after just three games.

Tight End Trials

It’s Week 17. Tight ends have mostly been a fiasco this year. And then there’s Kyle Pitts.

Is there a streamer who could crack say the top-eight this week? Who is this week’s Pitts—a nightmare from which fantasy teams never wake?

Harris: Yes. I'm a risk taker. If choosing Chase as my potential disappointment this week wasn't sufficient evidence, how about I pick a second-receiving asset from the Titans? Chigoziem Okonkwo produced 13-plus fantasy points in three of his last five, though, as Zachariason pointed out, the exceptions were total flops (3.8 and 5.7) in Weeks 13-14. But the Jaguars are a favorable matchup, and I have more faith in Rudolph than in Will Levis.

As for part two, nobody can out-Pitts Pitts. He's averaged 2.6 points over the last six weeks. His snap counts have fallen, and his target share over the last eight games is 10.8 percent. Meanwhile, Atlanta goes up against a Commanders defense that's allowed just 43.3 yards per game to tight ends in the previous eight weeks, and that's only allowed double-digit scoring to eight TEs all year.

Davenport: I may have mentioned Okonkwo here at FBG this week. Theoretically. 21 targets the past two weeks is nothing to sneeze at.

The streaming market outside Okonkwo this week is frankly ugly. But the tight end position has been ugly most of 2024, so it’s sort of fitting. Juwan Johnson (TE18) of the New Orleans Saints faces a Raiders team allowing the fourth-most PPR points to tight ends. New Orleans has no wide receivers left. And…I dunno, keep hope alive?

It’s a bad week to need a starter at tight end.

Fantasy managers who stashed T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings for a big chunk of the season undoubtedly hoped to have the player who was fantasy’s highest-scoring tight end after 16 weeks last year for just this moment. But while there have been flashes of that guy in 2024, the reality is we likely won’t have that tight end back until 2025. He’s not a reliable starter until then.

Plant the Flag

We’re going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called “Plant the Flag.” 

Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top-25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.

This week, that means the whole shebang.

Harris: If Young is going to finish as a top-tier fantasy QB this week, he's going to need help beyond Adam Thielen. As NFL Network's Marcas Grant noted this week, Jalen Coker hasn't been consistent, but the flashes have been impressive. Undoubtedly, last week's two-catch, eight-yard output against the Cardinals was miserable. But he delivered 110 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys in Week 15, and the Buccaneers give up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Coker is WR61 this week. He was WR12 against Dallas two weeks ago.

Davenport: I mentioned being torn between starting Tampa wide receiver Jalen McMillan and Arizona wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. this week. But it’s a good problem to have. Harrison (WR36) has been a massive disappointment in the eyes of most fantasy managers, but there’s a good chance the fourth overall pick in last April’s draft finishes strong. The last time the Cardinals and Rams faced off, Harrison had four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns—in the first half. It won’t make up for the entire season, but it’s amazing how forgiving fantasy managers can be after a big Week 17.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.

Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.